Kyle Backhus — OGILVIE

Kyle Backhus P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 105

ERA3.74

FIP3.76

K%20.0%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

SL+0.7 (34%)

SI (55%)

CH (10%)

FB-1.0 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	26	114	24	9	1	100%	3.7	15.2%	11.3%	3.9%	1.9%	4.50	4.31	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	26	114	24	9	1	100%	3.7	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	0.9%	4.50	2.79	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	52	226	78	25	1	0%	1.3	26.9%	12.5%	14.3%	0.7%	3.27	2.78	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	52	226	78	25	1	0%	1.3	34.5%	11.1%	23.5%	0.4%	3.27	1.80	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	69	303	76	32	7	0%	1.3	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	1.8%	3.67	3.79	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	69	303	76	32	7	0%	1.3	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	1.8%	3.67	3.79	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	69	303	76	32	7	0%	1.3	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.3%	3.67	3.61	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	36	159	44	17	4	3%	0.9	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	2.7%	3.79	4.07	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	36	159	44	17	4	3%	0.9	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	2.7%	3.79	4.07	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	36	159	44	17	4	3%	0.9	27.7%	10.7%	17.0%	2.5%	3.79	3.52	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	52	232	59	16	4	0%	0.9	22.7%	6.6%	16.2%	1.9%	3.31	3.05	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	52	232	59	16	4	0%	0.9	22.7%	6.6%	16.2%	1.9%	3.31	3.05	+0.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	52	232	59	16	4	0%	0.9	25.4%	6.9%	18.5%	1.7%	3.31	2.75	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	1	45	209	42	14	6	2%	0.9	20.1%	6.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.76	3.89	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	45	1	45	199	49	12	5	2%	1.0	22.1%	5.7%	16.4%	2.5%	3.77	3.33	+0.7
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	45	1	45	199	49	12	5	2%	1.0	22.1%	5.7%	16.4%	2.5%	3.77	3.33	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	24	0	25	105	29	6	2	0%	1.1	27.6%	5.7%	21.9%	1.9%	2.84	2.54	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	PHI	21	1	20	94	20	6	3	5%	1.0	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	3.2%	4.95	3.86	+0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	PHI	21	1	20	94	20	6	3	5%	1.0	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	3.2%	4.95	3.86	+0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	2.6%	3.74	3.76	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	PHI	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	2.6%	3.74	3.76	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	51	222	54	14	6	—	—	24.1%	6.2%	18.0%	2.5%	3.77	3.38	+0.7
FULL	28	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	25	108	54	14	6	—	—	49.9%	12.7%	37.1%	5.2%	7.52	3.36	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	59	0	62	262	51	20	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	7.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	56	0	58	246	47	20	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.61	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	56	0	59	249	48	19	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	7.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	52	0	55	232	44	19	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.2%	10.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	1	165	715	139	54	21	1%	1.0	19.5%	7.6%	11.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.03	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	1	200	866	168	65	25	1%	1.0	19.5%	7.6%	11.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		239	9	280	1233	271	119	23	4%	1.2	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	1.8%	3.64	3.48	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	6	200	882	194	85	16	4%	1.2	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	1.8%	3.64	3.48	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Backhus (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	19.1%	7.7%	2.6%	—	4.51	19.2%	11.2%	120	+0.24	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	84
Dan Jennings L 2015 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	18.9%	7.4%	1.2%	.294	3.80	17.8%	8.5%	188	+0.69	3.11	244	82
Christian Friedrich L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	28	SU	3.67	16.7%	8.5%	1.6%	.355	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	129	+0.29	3.67	188	78
Tyler Webb L 2018 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	23.2%	7.4%	2.2%	.280	4.53	21.9%	10.4%	115	+1.21	3.10	337	78
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	78
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	77
James Russell L 2015 · 3.71 FIP	29	SU	3.71	13.5%	4.7%	2.1%	.331	4.20	14.1%	8.7%	111	+0.49	2.66	233	77
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	76
Dean Kiekhefer L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	28	SU	3.60	18.0%	8.7%	1.7%	.350	3.03	17.5%	14.1%	58	-0.57	3.03	219	75
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	75
Danny Coulombe L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	23.0%	7.9%	4.0%	.326	3.64	28.3%	21.6%	91	-0.72	2.54	483	75
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	75
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	74
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	74
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	74
Jose Meraz L 2016 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	14.2%	6.8%	1.8%	.286	4.03	13.0%	1.5%	52	+0.25	3.78	110	73
Jeremy Bleich L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	14.3%	6.3%	1.2%	.291	3.67	16.5%	10.2%	155	+0.35	3.20	241	73
Hunter Cervenka L 2018 · 3.08 FIP	28	SU	3.08	24.6%	6.6%	2.2%	.268	3.11	26.6%	13.5%	55	+0.03	3.08	194	73
Jordan Harrison L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	28	SU	3.80	19.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	244	72
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	19.1%	7.9%	1.10	4.36
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47