Kyle Backhus

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	38	1	36	3.79	3.52	27.7%	10.7%	—	K 22.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.01
2025	27	MIX2 levels	58	0	52	3.31	2.75	25.4%	6.9%	1.1	K 23.2% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.01
2026	28	MIX2 levels	46	1	46	3.69	3.08	25.0%	5.9%	0.8	K 22.9% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	46	0	48	4.16	4.12	19.2%	6.4%	0.2
2028PROJ82% MLB	30	MLBPHI	31	0	33	4.28	4.35	18.9%	7.0%	0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	31	MLBPHI	22	0	23	4.46	4.58	18.5%	7.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs54

K%44

FB Velo10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJeff Ibarra (age 29) · Arturo Barradas (age 29) · Matt Thornton (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.16

FIP4.12

K%19.2%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.7

Whiff%

p1019.6%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	26	114	24	9	1	100%	3.7	15.2%	11.3%	3.9%	1.9%	4.50	4.31	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	26	114	24	9	1	100%	3.7	21.1%	7.9%	13.2%	0.9%	4.50	2.79	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	52	226	78	25	1	0%	1.3	26.9%	12.5%	14.3%	0.7%	3.27	2.78	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	52	226	78	25	1	0%	1.3	34.5%	11.1%	23.5%	0.4%	3.27	1.80	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	69	303	76	32	7	0%	1.3	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	1.8%	3.67	3.78	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	69	303	76	32	7	0%	1.3	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.3%	3.67	3.61	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	36	159	44	17	4	3%	0.9	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	2.7%	3.79	4.01	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	36	159	44	17	4	3%	0.9	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	2.7%	3.79	4.01	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	36	159	44	17	4	3%	0.9	27.7%	10.7%	17.0%	2.5%	3.79	3.52	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	52	232	59	16	4	0%	0.9	23.2%	6.6%	16.6%	1.9%	3.31	3.01	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	52	232	59	16	4	0%	0.9	23.2%	6.6%	16.6%	1.9%	3.31	3.01	+0.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	52	232	59	16	4	0%	0.9	25.4%	6.9%	18.5%	1.7%	3.31	2.75	+1.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	46	204	51	12	5	2%	1.0	22.9%	5.6%	17.3%	2.4%	3.69	3.22	+0.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	46	204	51	12	5	2%	1.0	22.9%	5.6%	17.3%	2.4%	3.69	3.22	+0.7
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	46	204	51	12	5	2%	1.0	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	2.5%	3.69	3.08	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	1	45	209	42	14	6	2%	0.9	20.1%	6.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.76	3.89	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	46	0	48	203	39	13	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	6.4%	12.8%	2.6%	4.16	4.12	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	38	0	40	168	32	12	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.35	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	26	0	27	113	21	8	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	31	0	33	139	26	10	4	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.28	4.35	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	22	0	23	97	18	7	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	1	101	444	86	31	13	1%	1.0	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	3.95	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	2	200	879	170	61	26	1%	1.0	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		240	9	281	1238	276	119	23	4%	1.2	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	1.8%	3.62	3.44	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	6	200	882	197	84	16	4%	1.2	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	1.8%	3.62	3.44	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 26 IPFIP 2.41 → 2.77 (+0.36)K% 28.2% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.18%	—	×0.860	24.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×0.900	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.41 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 26 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.15 (+0.39)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.860	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.84%	—	×0.900	6.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷0.904	×1.100	1.04%

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 32 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.01 (+0.13)K% 26.0% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.03%	—	×0.860	22.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.64%	—	×0.900	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.124	×1.100	2.68%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 55 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.77 (+0.19)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.02%	—	×0.810	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.57%	—	×1.100	11.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.637	×1.200	1.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 227).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 14 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.82 (+0.20)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.860	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 39 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.69 (+1.07)K% 36.7% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.75%	—	×0.770	28.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.24%	—	×1.150	11.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷0.848	×1.250	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 13 IPFIP 2.40 → 3.02 (+0.62)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.810	22.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.094	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.40 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 17 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.31 (+0.98)K% 20.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.740	15.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.180	11.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.923	×1.300	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Backhus (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	19.2%	6.4%	2.6%	—	4.44	18.7%	11.6%	66	+0.32	—	—	—
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	79
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	78
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	77
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	76
Ryan O'Rourke L 2016 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	23.4%	6.7%	1.9%	.284	4.08	22.1%	7.8%	56	+1.03	3.05	145	75
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	75
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.76	239	74
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	74
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	74
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	73
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	72
Tyler Olson L 2019 · 3.86 FIP	29	SU	3.86	20.0%	10.0%	2.1%	.326	3.96	21.6%	12.9%	31	+0.10	3.15	263	72
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	29	SU	3.68	17.1%	5.3%	2.5%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	322	72
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	427	72
Tyler Webb L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	21.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.178	4.75	22.1%	8.2%	60	+0.47	3.10	337	72
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	72
Blaine Hardy L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	29	SU	3.32	16.2%	6.2%	1.5%	.246	3.82	20.6%	14.7%	231	+0.50	2.74	456	72
Matt Grace L 2018 · 3.13 FIP	29	SU	3.13	19.4%	4.5%	2.0%	.273	5.21	17.0%	12.1%	47	+2.08	2.68	289	71
Tony Sipp L 2012 · 4.57 FIP	29	SU	4.57	21.9%	9.4%	3.9%	.252	3.22	28.6%	20.4%	143	-1.35	2.22	504	71
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	35	19.3%	6.8%	1.09	4.39
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*