Kyle Backhus
P
Philadelphia Phillies
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.29
FIP4.08
xFIP2.01
SIERA1.98
K%22.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.2%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†4550
FB Velo
p1091.0
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SL+0.7 (34%)
SI (57%)
CH (9%)
FB-1.0 (57%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 7 | 7 | 26 | 114 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 15.2% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 4.50 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 40 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 78 | 25 | 1 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 0.6% | 3.27 | 2.77 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 51 | 0 | 69 | 303 | 76 | 32 | 7 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 1.8% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | 38 | 1 | 36 | 159 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 3.31 | 3.03 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 7 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 12 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 19 | — | 19 | 80 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 26 | 113 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 3.13 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 37 | 17 | 6 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 5.08 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 5.24 | 5.34 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 201 | 8 | 242 | 1067 | 243 | 113 | 19 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 3.64 | 3.52 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 7 | 200 | 882 | 201 | 93 | 16 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 3.64 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Backhus (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.56 | 19.7% | 10.9% | 133 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 82 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 79 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 79 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .355 | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 129 | +0.09 | 3.77 | 188 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 77 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 77 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 77 |
| Dean Kiekhefer L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.59 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 1.7% | .350 | 3.03 | 17.5% | 14.1% | 58 | -0.56 | 3.03 | 219 | 77 |
| James Russell L 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .331 | 4.20 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 111 | +0.61 | 2.65 | 233 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 76 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.70 | 14.2% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .286 | 4.02 | 13.0% | 1.5% | 52 | +0.32 | 3.70 | 110 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 75 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 75 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 75 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 75 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.14 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.16 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 87 | -0.98 | 2.60 | 430 | 75 |
| Roy Merritt L 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 75 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.16 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.04 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.12 | 3.29 | 228 | 74 |
| Franklin Morales L 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 74 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.