Kyle Backhus
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 28
LHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8897vR 107
ERA3.80
FIP3.82
K%19.8%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p1017.9%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
SL+0.7 (36%)
SI (54%)
CH (10%)
FB-1.0 (54%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 26 | 114 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 15.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 4.50 | 4.41 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 26 | 114 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.1% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 0.9% | 4.50 | 2.79 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 78 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 3.27 | 2.86 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 78 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.5% | 11.1% | 23.5% | 0.4% | 3.27 | 1.80 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 69 | 303 | 76 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 1.4% | 3.67 | 3.59 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 69 | 303 | 76 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 36 | 159 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 3% | 0.9 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 36 | 159 | 44 | 17 | 4 | 3% | 0.9 | 27.7% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.5% | 7.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | 3.31 | 3.01 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 52 | 232 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.4% | 6.9% | 18.5% | 1.7% | 3.31 | 2.75 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 26 | 1 | 25 | 111 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 4% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 2.8% | 18.1% | 4.2% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 54 | 230 | 54 | 12 | 7 | — | — | 23.3% | 5.4% | 17.9% | 3.1% | 3.85 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 44 | 184 | 54 | 12 | 7 | — | — | 29.2% | 6.8% | 22.4% | 3.9% | 4.73 | 3.66 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 51 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 44 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 1 | 235 | 1007 | 195 | 74 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.09 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 166 | 63 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 220 | 9 | 260 | 1145 | 255 | 115 | 21 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 3.64 | 3.51 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 7 | 200 | 882 | 196 | 89 | 16 | 4% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 3.64 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Backhus (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.58 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 175 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 84 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .294 | 3.85 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.76 | 3.09 | 244 | 82 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.33 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 2.3% | .280 | 4.48 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 115 | +1.15 | 3.10 | 337 | 78 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.06 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +1.07 | 3.06 | 145 | 77 |
| Franklin Morales L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 77 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 3.9% | .326 | 3.53 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 91 | -0.77 | 2.46 | 483 | 77 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.55 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .355 | 4.08 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 129 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 188 | 77 |
| James Russell L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.31 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 111 | +0.67 | 2.69 | 233 | 76 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .321 | 3.39 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.23 | 2.95 | 101 | 76 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 76 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 75 |
| Xavier Cedeño L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.03 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .286 | 2.51 | 25.2% | 17.2% | 96 | -0.52 | 2.48 | 142 | 75 |
| Dean Kiekhefer L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.64 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 1.7% | .350 | 3.04 | 17.5% | 14.1% | 58 | -0.60 | 3.04 | 219 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 74 |
| Joe La Sorsa L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 390 | 74 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 74 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .268 | 3.20 | 26.6% | 13.5% | 55 | -0.05 | 3.20 | 194 | 74 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 73 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 73 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.42 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 1.4% | .291 | 3.63 | 16.5% | 10.2% | 155 | +0.21 | 3.21 | 241 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 1.16 | 4.41 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |