Tanner Scott
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.9
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'0" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA3.40
FIP3.80
xFIP3.16
SIERA2.66
K%26.6%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%18.3%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p7729.5%
K%
p6725.3%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL+2.1 (49%)
FB+2.0 (51%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 9 | 2 | 21 | 90 | 29 | 10 | 0 | 23.8% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 4.29 | 2.75 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 43 | 0 | 64 | 286 | 81 | 57 | 1 | 22.1% | 22.7% | 0.4% | 4.76 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 26 | 24 | 71 | 299 | 89 | 48 | 2 | 24.3% | 17.4% | 0.8% | 2.42 | 3.71 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 0 | 65 | 291 | 89 | 36 | 6 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 2.0% | 4.55 | 3.24 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 58 | 0 | 72 | 307 | 94 | 31 | 6 | 28.4% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.13 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 25 | 0 | 21 | 86 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 26.7% | 11.6% | 1.2% | 1.31 | 2.97 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 62 | 0 | 54 | 251 | 70 | 36 | 6 | 27.9% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 5.17 | 3.67 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 67 | 0 | 63 | 289 | 90 | 45 | 5 | 31.1% | 15.6% | 1.8% | 4.31 | 3.41 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 74 | 0 | 78 | 307 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 33.9% | 6.8% | 1.0% | 2.31 | 1.64 | +3.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 72 | 0 | 72 | 294 | 84 | 32 | 3 | 28.6% | 10.9% | 0.9% | 1.75 | 2.57 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62 | 0 | 58 | 242 | 62 | 17 | 11 | 25.2% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 10 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.04 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 60 | 17 | 6 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.27 | 3.63 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 58 | 239 | 68 | 17 | 7 | 28.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 2.94 | 3.09 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 65 | 18 | 7 | 27.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.52 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 60 | 18 | 7 | 27.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 55 | 17 | 6 | 26.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 4.00 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 50 | 17 | 6 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | LAD | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 571 | 26 | 647 | 2772 | 772 | 357 | 43 | 27.8% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.53 | 3.24 | +15.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 8 | 200 | 857 | 239 | 110 | 13 | 27.8% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 3.53 | 3.24 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Scott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.63 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | — | 3.85 | 27.0% | 19.0% | 158 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 68 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 66 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2028 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 66 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 66 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 65 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 64 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 64 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.91 | 29.8% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .293 | 4.02 | 31.5% | 18.1% | 140 | +1.11 | 2.32 | 455 | 64 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.12 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .337 | 2.72 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.40 | 2.22 | 459 | 63 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 63 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.61 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | .306 | 4.02 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 50 | +0.41 | 1.42 | 259 | 63 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 63 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.42 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 241 | 63 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 62 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.65 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .315 | 4.87 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 34 | +2.22 | 2.43 | 420 | 62 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.90 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.35 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.55 | 2.22 | 405 | 62 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.67 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.3% | .286 | 5.02 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.35 | 2.37 | 296 | 62 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 62 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 61 |
| Cam Booser L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .338 | 5.72 | 25.5% | 12.5% | 46 | +2.56 | 3.16 | 253 | 61 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 7.343 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
DEF 20%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $18M | +0.9 | $4M | -$14M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $18M | +0.8 | $3M | -$15M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $18M | +0.7 | $3M | -$15M |
| Totals | $54M | $10M | -$44M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$44M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$44M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.