Tanner Scott

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 33 LHP 6'0" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBSD	72	72	1.75	2.64	28.6%	10.9%	1.6
2025	31	MIX2 levels	62	58	4.66	4.31	25.6%	7.0%	0.2	K 25.2% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.26
2026	32	MLBLAD	69	64	2.69	1.86	32.7%	4.4%	2.1
2027PROJ	33	MLBLAD	53	56	3.22	3.07	30.6%	6.0%	1.0
2028PROJ	34	MLBLAD	49	51	3.38	3.45	29.7%	6.5%	0.7
2029PROJ	35	MLBLAD	40	42	3.62	3.78	28.7%	7.0%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service8.343First FA2028

2027Ext$18M2028Ext$18M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo84

Form3.15 ERA (proj 3.22) · K 29.9% (proj 30.6%) · BB 10.3% (proj 6.0%) ▼ last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsRaul Valdes (age 33) · Pedro Borbón (age 33) · Hideki Okajima (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7078vR 86

ERA3.22

FIP3.07

K%30.6%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%24.6%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$22M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p9035.5%

p9032.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.343 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

DEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$18M	+1.0	$8M	-$10M
2028	Ext	$18M	+0.7	$3M	-$14M
Totals		$36M		$11M	-$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	9	2	21	90	29	10	0	22%	2.3	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	0.0%	4.29	2.75	—
2015	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	9	2	21	90	29	10	0	22%	2.3	32.2%	11.1%	21.1%	0.0%	4.29	1.77	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	64	286	81	57	1	0%	1.5	22.1%	22.7%	-0.6%	0.4%	4.76	4.30	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	64	286	81	57	1	0%	1.5	28.3%	19.9%	8.4%	0.3%	4.76	3.44	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	71	299	89	48	2	92%	2.7	24.3%	17.4%	6.9%	0.8%	2.42	3.71	+1.4
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	71	299	89	48	2	92%	2.7	29.8%	16.1%	13.7%	0.7%	2.42	2.99	+2.1
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	65	291	89	36	6	0%	1.0	30.0%	12.5%	17.5%	1.9%	4.55	3.17	+1.1
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	65	291	89	36	6	0%	1.0	30.6%	12.4%	18.2%	2.1%	4.55	3.22	+1.0
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	72	307	94	31	6	0%	1.2	28.4%	10.3%	18.1%	2.0%	3.64	3.10	+1.2
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	72	307	94	31	6	0%	1.2	30.6%	10.1%	20.5%	2.0%	3.64	2.86	+1.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	25	0	21	86	23	10	1	0%	0.8	26.7%	11.6%	15.1%	1.0%	1.31	2.89	+0.4
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	25	0	21	86	23	10	1	0%	0.8	26.7%	11.6%	15.1%	1.2%	1.31	2.95	+0.4
2021	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	62	0	54	251	70	36	6	0%	0.9	27.9%	14.3%	13.5%	2.2%	5.17	3.75	+0.5
2021	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	62	0	54	251	70	36	6	0%	0.9	27.9%	14.3%	13.5%	2.4%	5.17	3.95	+0.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	67	0	63	289	90	45	5	0%	0.9	31.1%	15.6%	15.6%	1.8%	4.31	3.44	+0.8
2022	28	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	67	0	63	289	90	45	5	0%	0.9	31.1%	15.6%	15.6%	1.7%	4.31	3.42	+0.8
2023	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	74	0	78	307	104	21	3	0%	1.1	33.9%	6.8%	27.0%	1.0%	2.31	1.67	+2.7
2023	29	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	74	0	78	307	104	21	3	0%	1.1	33.9%	6.8%	27.0%	1.0%	2.31	1.74	+2.6
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	72	0	72	294	84	32	3	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	1.0%	1.75	2.61	+1.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	72	0	72	294	84	32	3	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	1.0%	1.75	2.61	+1.7
2024	30	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	72	0	72	294	84	32	3	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	1.0%	1.75	2.64	+1.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	58	242	62	17	11	0%	0.9	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	4.4%	4.66	4.26	+0.2
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	58	242	62	17	11	0%	0.9	25.2%	6.7%	18.5%	4.4%	4.66	4.26	+0.2
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	58	242	62	17	11	0%	0.9	25.6%	7.0%	18.6%	4.5%	4.66	4.31	+0.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	69	0	64	251	82	11	4	0%	0.9	32.7%	4.4%	28.3%	1.5%	2.69	1.74	+2.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	69	0	64	251	82	11	4	0%	0.9	32.7%	4.4%	28.3%	1.5%	2.69	1.74	+2.2
2026	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	69	0	64	251	82	11	4	0%	0.9	32.7%	4.4%	28.3%	1.6%	2.69	1.86	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			513	0	489	2087	628	217	43	0%	1.0	30.1%	10.4%	19.7%	2.1%	3.59	3.01	+9.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	LAD	53	0	56	236	72	14	6	0%	1.1	30.6%	6.0%	24.6%	2.6%	3.22	3.07	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	48	0	51	214	64	14	6	0%	1.1	29.7%	6.5%	23.2%	2.9%	3.31	3.38	+0.7
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	40	0	42	178	51	13	6	0%	1.1	28.7%	7.0%	21.7%	3.2%	3.55	3.71	+0.4
2030	36	MLB MLE	LAD	30	0	32	134	37	10	5	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	3.6%	3.87	4.08	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	49	0	51	215	64	14	6	0%	1.0	29.7%	6.5%	23.2%	3.0%	3.38	3.45	+0.7
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	40	0	42	177	51	13	6	0%	1.1	28.7%	7.0%	21.7%	3.4%	3.62	3.78	+0.4
2030	36	MLB CTX	LAD	30	0	32	135	37	10	5	0%	1.1	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	3.7%	3.95	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		632	0	614	2614	780	254	60	0%	1.0	29.8%	9.7%	20.1%	2.3%	3.59	3.08	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	851	254	83	20	0%	1.0	29.8%	9.7%	20.1%	2.3%	3.59	3.08	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		630	26	702	2993	846	368	47	4%	1.1	28.3%	12.3%	16.0%	1.6%	3.49	3.14	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		179	7	200	853	241	105	13	4%	1.1	28.3%	12.3%	16.0%	1.6%	3.49	3.14	+3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 45 IPFIP 2.05 → 2.55 (+0.50)K% 30.8% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.81%	—	×0.880	27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.57%	—	×1.050	7.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.08%	÷0.889	×1.100	1.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.05 → 2.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 12 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.55 (+0.37)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.880	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.65%	—	×1.050	18.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.964	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 69 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.71 (+0.76)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.86%	—	×1.100	17.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷0.998	×1.200	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Frederick Keys · 48 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.33 (+0.97)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.150	23.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.48%	÷1.214	×1.250	0.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABowie Baysox · 16 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.23 (+0.63)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.810	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.74%	—	×1.100	21.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.057	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 21 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.75 (+0.96)K% 32.2% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.22%	—	×0.740	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.902	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Scott (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.67	28.9%	21.9%	125	+0.60	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2011 · 2.65 FIP	33	SU	2.65	27.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.371	3.23	27.4%	23.0%	66	+0.58	2.29	160	61
Pedro Borbón L 2001 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	20.7%	4.1%	3.7%	.258	4.57	21.6%	14.3%	50	+0.67	2.26	264	61
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	61
Mike Zagurski L 2017 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	31.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.294	3.12	30.4%	21.1%	45	+0.18	2.94	120	59
Jamie Walker L 2004 · 3.48 FIP	33	SU	3.48	19.1%	3.2%	2.9%	.295	3.83	16.3%	12.1%	158	+0.35	3.48	442	58
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	57
Anthony Gose L 2024 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	26.4%	11.3%	2.7%	.279	5.07	21.5%	10.1%	97	+1.29	3.78	233	57
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	57
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	56
John Bale L 2007 · 2.49 FIP	33	SU	2.49	23.5%	8.4%	0.6%	.364	3.78	15.2%	6.5%	55	+1.29	2.49	168	55
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	54
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	54
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	53
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	52
Tim Byrdak L 2007 · 3.25 FIP	33	SU	3.25	24.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	4.96	20.1%	7.6%	155	+1.71	2.85	320	51
Zac Rosscup L 2021 · 2.56 FIP	33	SU	2.56	29.1%	11.9%	0.8%	.294	2.83	24.1%	10.2%	29	+0.27	2.56	173	51
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	51
Brooks Raley L 2021 · 3.06 FIP	33	SU	3.06	31.7%	7.8%	3.0%	.314	2.71	26.8%	18.8%	108	-0.35	1.74	294	49
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	49
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	48

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	52	29.9%	10.0%	0.89	3.55
Adam Ottavino ('25)	3.7	62	27.2%	10.4%	0.87	3.48
Justin Wilson ('25)	2.8	56	25.9%	10.2%	0.82	3.59
Paul Assenmacher ('86-'99, 12 WAR*)	4.3	61	27.8%*	8.3%*	0.98*	3.61*
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*
Jose Valverde ('14)	3.2	57	26.2%	10.0%	0.96	3.27
Dan Plesac ('86-'03, 16 WAR*)	5.4	60	28.6%*	8.5%*	1.02*	3.65*