Brian Holiday

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 24 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1028ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX3 levels	19	17	76	4.95	3.94	26.4%	5.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.45	4.45	20.1%	6.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	4	4	26	4.27	4.24	20.9%	6.5%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSTL	7	7	40	4.24	4.22	21.3%	6.7%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDylan DeLucia (age 23) · Andrew Quezada (age 24) · Zack Lee (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%20.1%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	17	76	314	83	16	14	89%	4.0	19.3%	5.9%	13.4%	5.6%	4.95	5.27	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	17	76	314	83	16	14	89%	4.0	19.3%	5.9%	13.4%	5.6%	4.95	5.27	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	17	76	314	83	16	14	89%	4.0	26.4%	5.1%	21.3%	4.5%	4.95	3.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.1%	6.4%	13.7%	3.4%	4.45	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	61	258	54	17	9	100%	6.1	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	3.3%	4.40	4.37	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	61	257	55	17	9	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	3.3%	4.37	4.35	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	59	250	54	17	8	100%	5.9	21.4%	6.9%	14.5%	3.3%	4.38	4.38	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	56	239	51	17	8	100%	6.3	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.4%	4.43	4.47	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	52	221	47	16	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	3.6%	4.53	4.60	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	26	110	23	7	3	100%	6.5	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	3.1%	4.27	4.24	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	36	11	5	100%	5.7	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	3.1%	4.24	4.22	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	46	194	42	13	6	100%	5.8	21.4%	6.9%	14.5%	3.1%	4.25	4.25	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	47	198	42	14	6	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.2%	4.30	4.34	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	46	194	41	14	6	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	3.3%	4.39	4.46	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	206	868	184	60	28	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.2%	4.29	3.93	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	179	58	27	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	3.2%	4.29	3.93	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		19	17	76	314	61	19	17	89%	4.0	19.3%	5.9%	13.4%	5.6%	4.95	5.27	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	45	200	823	159	49	46	89%	4.0	19.3%	5.9%	13.4%	5.6%	4.95	5.27	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 51 IPFIP 3.64 → 5.06 (+1.42)K% 28.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.17%	—	×0.740	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.69%	—	×1.180	5.54%
HR / BF /BF	4.23%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.49%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 16 IPFIP 4.85 → 5.96 (+1.11)K% 18.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.46%	—	×0.770	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.15%	—	×1.150	7.08%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.85 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Cardinals · 10 IPFIP 4.27 → 6.49 (+2.22)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.680	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.250	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷1.000	×1.400	7.78%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Holiday (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	20.1%	6.4%	3.4%	—	4.37	21.2%	14.5%	181	-0.08	—	—	—
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Octavio Acosta R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	15.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.337	4.39	16.3%	4.8%	184	-0.34	3.88	333	82
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	81
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.88	21.4%	13.4%	369	-0.61	3.03	492	81
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	80
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	79
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.11	17.2%	6.8%	157	+1.25	3.86	278	79
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	78
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	78
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	78
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	77
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	77
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	56	21.0%	6.8%	1.31	4.42
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*