Corey Braun — OGILVIE

Corey Braun P Stockton Ports

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 212 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	15	72	327	83	31	10	79%	3.8	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	4.1%	6.03	5.19	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	19	15	72	327	83	31	10	79%	3.8	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	4.1%	6.03	5.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	OAK	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	2.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.78	—
2026	23	A RAW	OAK	18	14	69	314	81	30	10	78%	3.8	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	3.2%	6.13	3.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	72	304	69	29	9	100%	5.5	22.8%	9.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	73	308	72	29	9	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	3.0%	4.39	4.33	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	73	308	72	28	9	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.34	4.31	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	72	303	71	28	9	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	70	294	69	28	9	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	66	281	65	27	9	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.3%	4.50	4.56	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	62	264	60	26	9	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	3.5%	4.64	4.74	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	31	131	30	13	4	100%	5.2	22.8%	9.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.44	4.38	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	48	203	47	19	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.9%	4.35	4.29	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	58	245	57	23	7	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	2.9%	4.30	4.27	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	61	258	60	24	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	62	262	61	25	8	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.36	4.39	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	60	253	58	25	8	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.51	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	58	245	56	24	8	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	378	1596	370	152	49	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.03	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	196	80	26	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.5%	13.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		19	15	72	327	62	37	14	79%	3.8	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	4.1%	6.03	5.19	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	42	200	913	174	103	38	79%	3.8	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	4.1%	6.03	5.19	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corey Braun (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.1%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.35	23.2%	13.8%	218	-0.23	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	82
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	81
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	79
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	78
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	77
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	76
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	76
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	76
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	75
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	75
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	75
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	75
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	75
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	74
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	74
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	73
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	65	23.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.45
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41