Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025
22
MIXMLE
2 levels
26
23
108
459
120
51
15
88%
4.2
20.5%
12.6%
7.8%
4.0%
3.99
5.17
—
2025
22
MIXMLE
2 levels
26
23
108
459
120
51
15
88%
4.2
20.5%
12.6%
7.8%
4.0%
3.99
5.17
—
2025
22
MIXRAW
2 levels
26
23
108
459
120
51
15
88%
4.2
26.1%
11.1%
15.0%
3.3%
3.99
4.10
—
2026
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
28
28
133
583
162
67
16
100%
4.8
23.0%
11.7%
11.3%
3.3%
4.87
4.43
—
2026
23
MIXMLE
2 levels
28
28
133
583
162
67
16
100%
4.8
23.0%
11.7%
11.3%
3.3%
4.87
4.43
—
2026
23
MIXRAW
2 levels
28
28
133
583
162
67
16
100%
4.8
27.8%
11.5%
16.3%
2.7%
4.87
3.74
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
24
MLB
STL
19
19
106
448
108
55
13
100%
5.6
24.2%
12.2%
12.0%
3.0%
4.63
4.63
+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
25
MLBMLE
STL
24
24
139
588
143
65
18
100%
5.8
24.4%
11.1%
13.3%
3.0%
4.52
4.47
+0.7
2029
26
MLBMLE
STL
25
25
151
638
156
69
19
100%
6.0
24.4%
10.8%
13.6%
3.0%
4.46
4.43
+0.8
2030
27
MLBMLE
STL
25
25
149
629
153
68
19
100%
6.0
24.3%
10.8%
13.6%
3.0%
4.45
4.46
+0.8
2031
28
MLBMLE
STL
24
24
144
610
147
66
19
100%
6.0
24.1%
10.8%
13.3%
3.1%
4.50
4.54
+0.6
2032
29
MLBMLE
STL
23
23
138
582
139
64
19
100%
6.0
23.9%
11.1%
12.8%
3.3%
4.60
4.67
+0.4
2033
30
MLBMLE
STL
22
22
130
547
129
62
19
100%
5.9
23.5%
11.3%
12.2%
3.5%
4.75
4.84
+0.1
2034
31
MLBMLE
STL
20
20
121
510
118
60
19
100%
6.0
23.1%
11.7%
11.4%
3.7%
4.93
5.04
-0.2
2028
25
MLBCTX
STL
10
10
61
258
63
29
7
100%
6.1
24.4%
11.1%
13.3%
2.8%
4.41
4.36
+0.3
2029
26
MLBCTX
STL
17
17
101
426
104
46
12
100%
5.9
24.4%
10.8%
13.6%
2.8%
4.35
4.32
+0.6
2030
27
MLBCTX
STL
19
19
116
490
119
53
14
100%
6.1
24.3%
10.8%
13.6%
2.8%
4.33
4.34
+0.6
2031
28
MLBCTX
STL
20
20
122
515
124
56
15
100%
6.1
24.1%
10.8%
13.3%
2.9%
4.38
4.42
+0.5
2032
29
MLBCTX
STL
20
20
121
511
122
56
16
100%
6.0
23.9%
11.1%
12.8%
3.1%
4.47
4.54
+0.3
2033
30
MLBCTX
STL
20
20
117
494
116
56
16
100%
5.8
23.5%
11.3%
12.2%
3.2%
4.62
4.71
+0.1
2034
31
MLBCTX
STL
18
18
111
469
108
55
16
100%
6.2
23.1%
11.7%
11.4%
3.5%
4.79
4.90
-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
125
125
748
3156
756
350
95
100%
6.0
23.9%
11.1%
12.9%
3.0%
4.48
4.14
+6.7
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
33
33
200
844
202
94
25
100%
6.0
23.9%
11.1%
12.9%
3.0%
4.48
4.14
+1.8
Career
—
MLE
54
51
241
1042
228
126
37
94%
4.5
21.9%
12.1%
9.8%
3.6%
4.48
4.75
+3.1
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
45
42
200
864
189
105
31
94%
4.5
21.9%
12.1%
9.8%
3.6%
4.48
4.75
+0.6
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.