Eduardo Rivera

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 24 LHP 6'7" / 237 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAASPD6040-MANROOKIEFG #655

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	18	7	41	4.35	2.42	27.2%	10.6%	—	K 24.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.85
2025	22	MIX2 levels	20	15	87	2.48	2.80	29.7%	12.6%	—	K 23.3% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.58
2026	23	MIX3 levels	30	8	66	3.15	3.07	28.8%	12.8%	1.2	K 23.9% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.55
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	51	0	54	4.45	4.45	24.4%	13.4%	0.1
2028PROJ59% MLB	25	MLBBOS	51	0	54	4.35	4.29	24.6%	12.0%	0.2
2029PROJ75% MLB	26	MLBBOS	66	0	69	4.30	4.27	24.6%	11.7%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff57Control45Command44FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 77%

CompsBrad Mills (age 25) · Jason Blanchard (age 25) · Angel Perdomo (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%24.4%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4045

K†6060

SL (31%)

FB (54%)

CH (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	8	3	14	68	22	11	0	38%	1.7	22.0%	20.2%	1.8%	0.0%	3.29	3.80	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	8	3	14	68	22	11	0	38%	1.7	32.4%	16.2%	16.2%	0.0%	3.29	2.30	—
2023	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	16	12	69	323	75	44	3	75%	4.3	17.2%	16.1%	1.1%	1.3%	5.35	4.39	—
2023	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	16	12	69	323	75	44	3	75%	4.3	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	0.9%	5.35	3.40	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	41	180	49	19	1	39%	2.3	24.7%	8.3%	16.3%	1.4%	4.35	2.85	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	7	41	180	49	19	1	39%	2.3	24.7%	8.3%	16.3%	1.4%	4.35	2.85	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	7	41	180	49	19	1	39%	2.3	27.2%	10.6%	16.7%	0.6%	4.35	2.42	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	87	364	108	46	4	75%	4.3	23.3%	14.1%	9.2%	1.2%	2.48	3.58	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	15	87	364	108	46	4	75%	4.3	23.3%	14.1%	9.2%	1.2%	2.48	3.58	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	15	87	364	108	46	4	75%	4.3	29.7%	12.6%	17.0%	1.1%	2.48	2.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	8	66	281	81	36	4	27%	2.2	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	1.7%	3.15	3.55	+0.8
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	8	66	281	81	36	4	27%	2.2	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	1.7%	3.15	3.55	+0.8
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	8	66	281	81	36	4	27%	2.2	28.8%	12.8%	16.0%	1.4%	3.15	3.07	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	3	10	44	10	6	1	75%	2.5	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	2.3%	6.30	4.20	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	51	0	54	228	56	30	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	13.4%	11.1%	2.4%	4.45	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	87	0	91	385	95	46	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.0%	12.5%	2.5%	4.35	4.29	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	87	0	91	385	95	45	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	2.5%	4.30	4.27	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	85	0	90	379	93	44	10	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.6%	12.9%	2.6%	4.30	4.30	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	83	0	87	367	89	43	10	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.39	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	79	0	83	351	84	42	10	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	2.9%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	74	0	78	330	85	37	10	0%	1.1	25.7%	11.3%	14.3%	3.1%	4.43	4.42	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	51	0	54	228	56	27	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.0%	12.5%	2.5%	4.35	4.29	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	66	0	69	291	72	34	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	2.5%	4.30	4.27	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	74	312	76	36	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.6%	12.9%	2.6%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	72	0	76	321	78	37	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.39	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	71	0	75	317	76	37	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	2.9%	4.45	4.52	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	68	0	71	300	77	34	9	0%	1.0	25.7%	11.3%	14.3%	3.1%	4.43	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		403	3	429	1814	445	212	49	1%	1.1	24.5%	11.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.41	3.99	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	1	200	845	207	99	23	1%	1.1	24.5%	11.7%	12.8%	2.7%	4.41	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		93	46	278	1220	268	167	16	49%	3.0	21.9%	13.7%	8.3%	1.3%	3.66	3.68	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	879	193	120	11	49%	3.0	21.9%	13.7%	8.3%	1.3%	3.66	3.68	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eduardo Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	24.4%	13.4%	2.4%	—	4.29	24.5%	12.8%	272	-0.16	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	68
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	67
Angel Perdomo L 2018 · 3.57 FIP	24	SW	3.57	22.6%	11.8%	1.6%	.315	4.01	32.7%	17.7%	100	+0.44	2.82	540	67
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	66
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	65
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	65
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	62
Matt Krook L 2019 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	18.7%	15.6%	1.7%	.312	4.12	23.8%	10.4%	245	-0.34	2.37	633	62
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	61
Garrett McDaniels L 2024 · 3.50 FIP	24	SW	3.50	19.5%	10.9%	1.2%	.306	4.00	17.7%	3.6%	88	+0.50	3.11	174	60
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	60
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	60
Erik Miller L 2022 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	24.4%	15.8%	2.0%	.307	3.45	27.1%	12.9%	149	-0.70	2.80	262	60
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	60
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	60
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	60
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	59
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	59
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	59
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.66	19.4%	5.9%	190	-0.29	1.91	302	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	84	24.5%	11.9%	1.03	4.40
Bill Kennedy ('48-'57, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	24.6%*	10.6%*	1.08*	4.62*
Don Ferrarese ('55-'62, 3 WAR*)	2.5	101	23.6%*	12.5%*	0.84*	4.38*
Dennis Higgins ('66-'72, 1 WAR*)	2.1	82	24.5%*	12.2%*	0.94*	4.34*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70