Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 33.3% | -16.7% | 0.0% | 18.00 | 5.91 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 33.3% | -16.7% | 0.0% | 18.00 | 7.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 2.50 | 3.11 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 10.3% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 2.50 | 1.88 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 7 | 73 | 315 | 84 | 29 | 3 | 22% | 2.3 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 1.1% | 3.19 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 7 | 73 | 315 | 84 | 29 | 3 | 22% | 2.3 | 26.7% | 9.2% | 17.5% | 1.0% | 3.19 | 2.53 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 5 | 49 | 216 | 54 | 31 | 4 | 12% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 5 | 49 | 216 | 54 | 31 | 4 | 12% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 24 | 1 | 26 | 118 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 4% | 1.1 | 15.7% | 20.5% | -4.8% | 0.0% | 3.08 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 53 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 84 | 362 | 74 | 58 | 7 | — | — | 20.3% | 16.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 4.22 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 6 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 21.6% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 52 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 51 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 14.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 75 | 323 | 65 | 46 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 14.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.86 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 173 | 122 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 14.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 114 | 13 | 168 | 733 | 143 | 104 | 9 | 11% | 1.5 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 3.49 | 3.89 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 16 | 200 | 874 | 171 | 124 | 10 | 11% | 1.5 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 5.4% | 1.2% | 3.49 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett McDaniels (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 21.6% | 14.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.97 | 21.7% | 7.8% | 112 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Sam Freeman L 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 80 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 76 |
| Matt Purke L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 19.1% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .284 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 112 | -0.82 | 2.92 | 226 | 73 |
| Trey Jeans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 73 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .298 | 3.45 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 102 | -1.21 | 2.72 | 344 | 73 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.66 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .318 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -2.03 | 1.67 | 421 | 72 |
| Andy Fisher L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.21 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.23 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 52 | +0.02 | 3.14 | 167 | 72 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 72 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 72 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 72 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 71 |
| Andy Oliver L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 71 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 175 | 71 |
| Adam McCreery L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.23 | 20.7% | 14.5% | 1.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 207 | 71 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 70 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 18.1% | 1.3% | .305 | 5.11 | 19.2% | 3.1% | 103 | +0.98 | 3.29 | 199 | 70 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 70 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.64 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 2.8% | .294 | 3.83 | 17.7% | 4.9% | 37 | -0.81 | 3.54 | 206 | 70 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.64 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .269 | 4.43 | 17.2% | 1.8% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.79 | 330 | 70 |
| Erik Rivera L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 1.09 | 4.83 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |