Jake Palisch
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2029
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP4.68
SIERA4.72
K%17.2%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%9.4%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2029
K†4045
CH (21%)
FB (33%)
SL-1.0 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 36 | 0 | 42 | 183 | 50 | 13 | 5 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 5.31 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 38 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 13.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.75 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 13 | 106 | 422 | 67 | 26 | 5 | 13.0% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 2.29 | 3.90 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 2 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 60 | 27 | 10 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 90 | 384 | 66 | 32 | 10 | 17.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 4.54 | 4.14 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 62 | 28 | 10 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 61 | 27 | 10 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.55 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 66 | 24 | 10 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 63 | 24 | 10 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 60 | 23 | 10 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 56 | 23 | 9 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 53 | 22 | 9 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 49 | 21 | 9 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 44 | 21 | 9 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 15 | 211 | 868 | 140 | 65 | 23 | 16.1% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.28 | 4.16 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 14 | 200 | 821 | 132 | 62 | 22 | 16.1% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.28 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Palisch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.47 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 243 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .311 | 4.07 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 231 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 454 | 61 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 310 | 59 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 300 | 59 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.38 | 12.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.09 | 14.6% | 9.1% | 128 | -0.29 | 3.98 | 280 | 58 |
| Derek Holland L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 58 |
| Aaron Laffey L 2029 · 4.11 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .318 | 4.39 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 192 | +0.28 | 3.52 | 282 | 57 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.70 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 137 | 57 |
| Carlos Teller L 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.74 | 13.8% | 10.9% | 0.8% | .329 | 4.75 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 187 | +1.01 | 3.74 | 333 | 57 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 223 | 57 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.36 | 11.5% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.88 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 220 | -0.48 | 3.73 | 311 | 57 |
| Jose Molina L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.17 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 144 | 57 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 57 |
| Orlando Lara L 2029 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 57 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .347 | 3.76 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 90 | +0.19 | 2.81 | 344 | 57 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .345 | 5.08 | 10.0% | 2.8% | 83 | +0.04 | 5.04 | 175 | 57 |
| Reid VanScoter L 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 14.7% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 331 | 57 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.76 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.55 | 26.6% | 17.6% | 88 | +0.79 | 2.48 | 461 | 56 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 56 |
| Nick Raquet L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.43 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.21 | 23.1% | 17.2% | 52 | -1.22 | 3.21 | 390 | 56 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 55 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $11M | +$0.6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.