Jake Palisch — OGILVIE

Jake Palisch P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%12.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3030

CH (21%)

FB (33%)

SL-1.0 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	17	12	1	0	0%	1.0	70.6%	5.9%	64.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.12	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	17	12	1	0	0%	1.0	70.6%	5.9%	64.7%	0.0%	0.00	-1.10	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	36	0	42	183	50	13	5	0%	1.2	21.0%	8.2%	12.9%	3.4%	5.31	4.20	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	36	0	42	183	50	13	5	0%	1.2	21.0%	8.2%	12.9%	3.4%	5.31	4.20	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	36	0	42	183	50	13	5	0%	1.2	27.3%	7.1%	20.2%	2.7%	5.31	3.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	38	0	50	209	35	14	7	0%	1.3	13.6%	7.4%	6.2%	4.3%	3.75	5.25	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	38	0	50	209	35	14	7	0%	1.3	13.6%	7.4%	6.2%	4.3%	3.75	5.25	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	38	0	50	209	35	14	7	0%	1.3	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.3%	3.75	4.35	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	13	106	422	67	26	5	43%	3.5	13.0%	6.9%	6.2%	1.8%	2.29	3.88	+0.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	13	106	422	67	26	5	43%	3.5	13.0%	6.9%	6.2%	1.8%	2.29	3.88	+0.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	13	106	422	67	26	5	43%	3.5	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	1.2%	2.29	3.18	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	3.10	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	25	21	119	538	57	47	12	84%	4.8	8.6%	9.6%	-1.0%	2.7%	4.92	5.06	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	25	21	119	538	57	47	12	84%	4.8	8.6%	9.6%	-1.0%	2.7%	4.92	5.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	CWS	25	21	119	538	57	47	12	84%	4.8	10.6%	8.7%	1.9%	2.2%	4.92	4.54	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CWS	1	1	6	27	3	2	1	100%	6.4	12.0%	7.5%	4.5%	2.7%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	125	565	60	49	13	—	—	10.7%	8.7%	2.0%	2.3%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	37	23	8	0%	1.0	13.0%	7.9%	5.2%	2.9%	4.91	4.95	-0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	62	0	65	274	37	22	8	0%	1.0	13.6%	8.2%	5.4%	3.0%	4.96	5.03	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	14	9	3	0%	1.0	13.0%	7.9%	5.2%	2.9%	4.91	4.95	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	34	0	36	152	21	12	5	0%	1.1	13.6%	8.2%	5.4%	3.0%	4.96	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	35	21	8	0%	1.0	13.0%	7.9%	5.2%	2.9%	5.15	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	850	112	67	26	0%	1.1	13.0%	7.9%	5.2%	2.9%	5.15	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		134	34	323	1369	180	112	37	25%	2.4	13.2%	8.2%	5.0%	2.7%	3.85	4.52	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	21	200	849	112	69	23	25%	2.4	13.2%	8.2%	5.0%	2.7%	3.85	4.52	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Palisch (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	12.0%	7.5%	2.7%	—	4.99	13.3%	5.3%	133	+0.06	—	—	—
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	63
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	62
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	61
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	61
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	60
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	59
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	59
Sean Gilmartin L 2017 · 4.90 FIP	27	SP-	4.90	14.9%	7.3%	3.9%	.351	4.44	18.9%	10.4%	154	-0.46	2.33	386	59
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	58
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	57
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	57
Jake Drehoff L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SW	5.21	16.8%	9.0%	4.4%	.418	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	153	57
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	57
Kyle Hunter L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	11.2%	9.9%	1.9%	.295	4.50	14.0%	7.9%	72	+0.02	4.32	188	56
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	56
Cam Vieaux L 2021 · 5.10 FIP	27	SP-	5.10	18.0%	11.8%	3.7%	.288	4.49	19.7%	10.5%	122	-0.61	4.20	620	56
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	56
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	56
Lucas Luetge L 2015 · 5.08 FIP	28	SU	5.08	14.0%	10.4%	3.4%	.299	4.12	20.9%	10.7%	87	-0.96	2.53	430	56
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	12.9%	7.9%	1.11	4.93
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09