Jake Palisch
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 27
LHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115124vR 133
ERA5.07
FIP5.07
K%12.0%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH (21%)
FB (33%)
SL-1.0 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 70.6% | 5.9% | 64.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.12 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 70.6% | 5.9% | 64.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 36 | 0 | 42 | 183 | 50 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 5.31 | 4.17 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 36 | 0 | 42 | 183 | 50 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 7.1% | 20.2% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 38 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.75 | 5.42 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 38 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 35 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 3.75 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 13 | 106 | 422 | 67 | 26 | 5 | 43% | 3.5 | 13.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 2.29 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 13 | 106 | 422 | 67 | 26 | 5 | 43% | 3.5 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 1.2% | 2.29 | 3.18 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 17 | 17 | 81 | 368 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 8.1% | 9.9% | -1.7% | 2.9% | 5.58 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 33 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 12.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 12.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 145 | 642 | 70 | 54 | 17 | — | — | 10.9% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.35 | 5.18 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 37 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 37 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 35 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.28 | 4.71 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 850 | 110 | 69 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 5.28 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 30 | 284 | 1199 | 164 | 97 | 37 | 24% | 2.3 | 13.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 4.67 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 21 | 200 | 843 | 115 | 68 | 26 | 24% | 2.3 | 13.7% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Palisch (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 12.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.11 | 13.3% | 5.2% | 133 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 65 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 62 |
| Colten Schmidt L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 163 | 61 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.23 | 12.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 446 | 60 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2028 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 60 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 60 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.30 | 11.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .381 | 3.63 | 17.1% | 11.8% | 49 | -1.67 | 3.63 | 322 | 60 |
| Sean Gilmartin L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.94 | 14.9% | 7.3% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.60 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 154 | -0.34 | 2.33 | 386 | 59 |
| Roy Merritt L 2029 · 4.01 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.01 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .293 | 3.88 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | -0.13 | 3.88 | 129 | 58 |
| Matt Walker L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 58 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.89 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .299 | 4.27 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 87 | -0.62 | 2.52 | 430 | 58 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .418 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 153 | 58 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 58 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.75 | 3.04 | 120 | 57 |
| Hunter Barco L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 57 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.02 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 5.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 371 | 57 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 56 |
| Nick Routt L 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.80 | 11.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 195 | 56 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.49 | 11.2% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .295 | 4.47 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 72 | -0.02 | 4.44 | 188 | 56 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 219 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 1.20 | 5.07 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |