Jake Palisch

P Birmingham Barons

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AACWS	38	0	50	3.75	4.35	16.7%	6.7%	—	K 13.6% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.25
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	13	106	2.29	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	1.8	K 13.0% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.88
2026	27	AACWS	25	21	119	4.92	4.64	10.6%	8.7%	—	K 8.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	28	MLBCWS	2	0	2	5.31	5.31	10.0%	9.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCWS	15	0	16	5.29	5.34	11.1%	9.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCWS	20	0	21	5.35	5.44	11.7%	9.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control60Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJordan Carr (age 27) · Enrique Lechuga (age 29) · Jimmy Reyes (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%10.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	5	17	12	1	0	0%	1.0	70.6%	5.9%	64.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.12	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	5	17	12	1	0	0%	1.0	70.6%	5.9%	64.7%	0.0%	0.00	-1.10	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	36	0	42	183	50	13	5	0%	1.2	21.0%	8.2%	12.9%	3.4%	5.31	4.20	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	36	0	42	183	50	13	5	0%	1.2	27.3%	7.1%	20.2%	2.7%	5.31	3.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	38	0	50	209	35	14	7	0%	1.3	13.6%	7.4%	6.2%	4.3%	3.75	5.25	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	38	0	50	209	35	14	7	0%	1.3	13.6%	7.4%	6.2%	4.3%	3.75	5.25	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	38	0	50	209	35	14	7	0%	1.3	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.3%	3.75	4.35	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	13	106	422	67	26	5	43%	3.5	13.0%	6.9%	6.2%	1.8%	2.29	3.88	+0.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	13	106	422	67	26	5	43%	3.5	13.0%	6.9%	6.2%	1.8%	2.29	3.88	+0.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	13	106	422	67	26	5	43%	3.5	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	1.2%	2.29	3.18	+1.8
2026	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	25	21	119	538	57	47	12	84%	4.8	8.6%	9.6%	-1.0%	2.7%	4.92	5.06	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	25	21	119	538	57	47	12	84%	4.8	8.6%	9.6%	-1.0%	2.7%	4.92	5.06	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	25	21	119	538	57	47	12	84%	4.8	10.6%	8.7%	1.9%	2.2%	4.92	4.64	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	3.10	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CWS	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	9.1%	0.9%	2.8%	5.31	5.31	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	49	0	52	219	24	21	6	0%	1.1	11.1%	9.4%	1.7%	2.9%	5.29	5.34	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	CWS	40	0	42	176	21	17	6	0%	1.0	11.7%	9.7%	2.0%	3.1%	5.35	5.44	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	15	0	16	68	7	6	2	0%	1.1	11.1%	9.4%	1.7%	2.9%	5.29	5.34	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	CWS	20	0	21	89	10	9	3	0%	1.1	11.7%	9.7%	2.0%	3.1%	5.35	5.44	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	0	39	165	18	15	5	0%	1.0	11.0%	9.2%	1.8%	2.9%	5.65	4.95	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	854	93	77	26	0%	1.0	11.0%	9.2%	1.8%	2.9%	5.65	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		134	34	323	1369	180	112	37	25%	2.4	13.2%	8.2%	5.0%	2.7%	3.85	4.52	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	21	200	849	112	69	23	25%	2.4	13.2%	8.2%	5.0%	2.7%	3.85	4.52	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 119 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.06 (+0.53)K% 10.6% → 8.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.59%	—	×0.810	8.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.100	9.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 105 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.88 (+0.69)K% 16.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.11%	—	×0.810	13.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.100	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.784	×1.200	1.84%

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 50 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.25 (+0.87)K% 16.7% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.75%	—	×0.810	13.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.70%	—	×1.100	7.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷0.935	×1.200	4.30%

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 42 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.20 (+1.01)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.32%	—	×0.770	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.10%	—	×1.150	8.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.017	×1.250	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Palisch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	10.0%	9.1%	2.8%	—	5.38	11.4%	1.9%	94	+0.07	—	—	—
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	67
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	66
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	66
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	65
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	65
Nick Ramirez L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	28	SU	4.35	14.3%	11.9%	1.7%	.269	3.81	21.5%	13.4%	162	-0.54	2.91	478	65
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	63
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	62
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	62
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	61
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	60
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	60
Matt Stalcup L 2016 · 6.20 FIP	26	SW	6.20	11.5%	12.7%	4.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	145	60
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	60
Sean Gilmartin L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	28	SW	4.61	14.9%	8.2%	3.2%	.274	4.21	24.1%	15.2%	66	-0.40	2.33	386	60
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	59
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	59
Lucas Luetge L 2015 · 5.08 FIP	28	SU	5.08	14.0%	10.4%	3.4%	.299	4.12	20.9%	10.7%	87	-0.96	2.53	508	59
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	59
Nick Raquet L 2024 · 4.29 FIP	28	SW	4.29	16.5%	9.2%	2.6%	.323	2.89	23.0%	17.1%	96	-1.40	2.59	434	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	10.7%	9.3%	1.12	5.39
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*
Mike Barlow ('75-'81, -2 WAR*)	1.2	62	14.0%*	9.4%*	0.76*	4.97*