Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 533 | 92 | 39 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 13.0% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 3.74 | 3.57 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 123 | 533 | 92 | 39 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 0.8% | 3.74 | 2.98 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 25 | 25 | 130 | 558 | 122 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.2 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.31 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | 25 | 25 | 130 | 558 | 122 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 3.41 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 6 | 84 | 376 | 73 | 37 | 9 | 17% | 2.4 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 4.80 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 6 | 84 | 376 | 73 | 37 | 9 | 17% | 2.4 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.80 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 54 | 224 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.1% | 5.9% | 17.2% | 2.8% | 2.15 | 3.41 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 54 | 224 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 5.8% | 21.4% | 1.8% | 2.15 | 2.53 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 0.8% | 3.63 | 2.60 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 60 | 253 | 57 | 20 | 5 | — | — | 22.4% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 2.1% | 3.98 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 29 | 122 | 57 | 20 | 5 | — | — | 46.5% | 16.6% | 29.9% | 4.3% | 8.27 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 36 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 58 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.36 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 169 | 79 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 56 | 428 | 1846 | 313 | 158 | 37 | 36% | 2.8 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 3.82 | 3.85 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 26 | 200 | 862 | 146 | 74 | 17 | 36% | 2.8 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 3.82 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Raquet (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.64 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 40 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 69 |
| Josh Outman L 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 68 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 67 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 67 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 67 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 66 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 65 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 64 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 64 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 63 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.22 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .311 | 5.27 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 25 | +1.05 | 2.72 | 344 | 63 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 63 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.41 | 20.7% | 6.2% | 2.3% | .357 | 5.09 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 25 | +1.68 | 2.59 | 183 | 63 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.16 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 190 | 62 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 62 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .304 | 3.39 | 17.6% | 12.6% | 126 | -1.06 | 3.39 | 291 | 62 |
| Chad Bell L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 393 | 62 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 62 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .321 | 4.52 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 62 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 21.2% | 8.9% | 1.23 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |