Henry Lalane — OGILVIE

Henry Lalane P Tampa Tarpons

Age 22 LHP 6'7" / 211 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%22.6%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL—50

CMD3050

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	12	12	41	188	39	25	2	100%	3.4	14.1%	16.6%	-2.5%	1.4%	3.70	4.78	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 2	12	12	41	188	39	25	2	100%	3.4	20.7%	13.3%	7.4%	1.1%	3.70	3.66	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	11	11	48	198	52	14	0	100%	4.4	17.9%	8.8%	9.0%	0.0%	2.98	2.71	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	11	11	48	198	52	14	0	100%	4.4	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	0.0%	2.98	1.82	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	5	22	88	34	4	3	62%	2.7	26.3%	5.7%	20.6%	3.5%	4.57	3.50	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	8	5	22	88	34	4	3	62%	2.7	26.3%	5.7%	20.6%	3.5%	4.57	3.50	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	8	5	22	88	34	4	3	62%	2.7	38.6%	4.5%	34.1%	3.4%	4.57	2.32	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	12	53	13	9	2	67%	2.1	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	3.8%	6.57	5.25	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	12	53	13	9	2	67%	2.1	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	3.8%	6.57	5.25	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	12	53	13	9	2	67%	2.1	24.5%	17.0%	7.5%	3.8%	6.57	5.29	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	19	84	22	14	2	100%	2.8	20.3%	21.0%	-0.7%	2.1%	2.33	5.21	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	19	84	22	14	2	100%	2.8	20.3%	21.0%	-0.7%	2.1%	2.33	5.21	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	19	84	22	14	2	100%	2.8	26.2%	16.7%	9.5%	2.4%	2.33	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	21	20	100	405	114	34	6	95%	4.7	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	1.9%	3.16	3.59	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	21	20	100	405	114	34	6	95%	4.7	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	1.9%	3.16	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SF	13	12	62	247	81	22	1	92%	4.8	32.8%	8.9%	23.9%	0.4%	2.74	1.68	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	SF	8	8	37	158	33	12	5	100%	4.7	20.9%	7.6%	13.3%	3.2%	3.86	4.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	101	428	100	56	13	100%	5.3	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.77	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	104	438	104	51	13	100%	5.5	23.8%	11.6%	12.1%	2.9%	4.66	4.54	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	105	444	107	48	13	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.49	4.39	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	105	444	107	47	13	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	4.37	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	437	106	47	13	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.9%	4.41	4.40	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	100	424	102	46	13	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.49	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	96	405	97	45	13	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.62	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	90	380	89	43	13	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.3%	12.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.80	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	84	355	82	41	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.7%	11.4%	3.6%	4.88	5.00	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	50	211	49	28	6	100%	5.6	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.7%	4.76	4.65	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	72	304	72	35	8	100%	5.5	23.8%	11.6%	12.1%	2.7%	4.54	4.42	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	85	359	86	38	10	100%	5.7	24.1%	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.37	4.27	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	92	388	94	41	10	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.6%	13.6%	2.7%	4.30	4.25	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	93	393	95	42	11	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.28	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	92	388	94	42	11	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.33	4.36	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	89	376	90	42	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.1%	12.8%	3.0%	4.42	4.49	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	84	355	83	40	11	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.3%	12.1%	3.1%	4.56	4.66	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	80	338	78	40	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	11.7%	11.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	125	739	3119	743	349	89	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.07	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	201	95	24	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		65	59	243	1016	200	120	17	91%	3.7	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	1.7%	3.45	3.85	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	49	200	837	165	99	14	91%	3.7	19.7%	11.8%	7.9%	1.7%	3.45	3.85	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Lalane (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	22.6%	15.3%	3.0%	—	4.56	23.7%	11.9%	310	-0.58	—	—	—
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	84
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	84
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	83
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	82
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	82
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	81
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	79
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	79
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	78
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	78
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	78
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	77
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	77
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	76
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	75
Cooper Hjerpe L 2023 · 6.23 FIP	22	SP-	6.23	23.0%	16.8%	5.3%	.207	3.77	28.5%	11.7%	86	-2.46	3.61	127	75
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	75
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	93	23.8%	11.5%	1.19	4.62
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70