AJ Smith-Shawver

AJ Smith-Shawver P Atlanta Braves

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.20

FIP4.43

K%23.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

FB+1.6 (47%)

CU (15%)

SL-4.3 (4%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$12M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$6M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	4	4	8	38	16	10	2	100%	2.1	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	5.3%	8.64	5.77	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	4	4	8	38	16	10	2	100%	2.1	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	5.3%	8.64	5.98	—
2022	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	69	299	103	39	4	100%	4.0	25.5%	15.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.11	3.74	—
2022	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	69	299	103	39	4	100%	4.0	34.4%	13.0%	21.4%	1.3%	5.11	2.56	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	3.5%	3.19	4.55	+0.4
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	3.5%	3.19	4.55	+0.4
2023	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	27.7%	12.3%	15.4%	3.1%	3.19	3.98	+1.0
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	23.6%	9.9%	13.8%	6.2%	4.63	5.77	-0.9
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	23.6%	9.9%	13.8%	6.2%	4.63	5.77	-0.9
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	28.7%	10.8%	17.9%	5.4%	4.63	4.97	-0.1
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	21.9%	10.9%	10.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.78	+0.7
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	21.9%	10.9%	10.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.78	+0.7
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	1.7%	4.02	3.42	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	20	95	418	84	47	15	95%	4.5	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.87	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	12	12	50	214	52	22	5	100%	4.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	2.1%	4.17	3.94	+0.6
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	12	12	50	214	52	22	5	100%	4.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	2.1%	4.17	3.94	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	ATL	2	2	7	24	9	0	1	100%	3.5	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	4.2%	1.29	2.22	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	ATL	5	5	22	87	25	9	0	100%	4.3	28.7%	10.3%	18.4%	0.0%	1.66	1.98	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	ATL	5	5	21	103	18	13	4	100%	4.2	17.5%	12.6%	4.9%	3.9%	7.71	5.35	-0.1
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	ATL	5	5	21	103	18	13	4	100%	4.2	17.5%	12.6%	4.9%	3.9%	7.71	5.35	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	6	23	5	2	1	100%	5.6	23.1%	10.5%	12.6%	3.5%	4.20	4.43	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	ATL	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.5%	12.6%	3.5%	4.20	4.43	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	55	237	57	24	6	—	—	24.2%	10.3%	13.9%	2.5%	4.17	3.99	+0.4
FULL	23	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	27	112	57	24	6	—	—	51.2%	21.8%	29.4%	5.2%	8.67	4.39	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	112	473	111	47	17	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.0%	13.6%	3.6%	4.69	4.71	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	132	555	134	52	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.56	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	144	606	147	56	21	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	3.5%	4.54	4.51	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	145	613	149	57	22	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.5%	4.54	4.54	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	145	613	148	58	22	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.6%	4.59	4.63	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	139	586	138	57	22	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.8%	4.71	4.79	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	130	551	126	55	22	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	4.0%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	122	514	113	53	22	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	4.2%	5.09	5.23	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	106	448	105	45	16	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.0%	13.6%	3.6%	4.69	4.71	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	125	528	127	50	18	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.56	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	136	574	140	53	20	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	3.5%	4.54	4.51	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	138	583	141	54	20	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.5%	4.54	4.54	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	138	583	140	55	21	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.6%	4.59	4.63	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	132	557	131	54	21	100%	6.0	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.8%	4.71	4.79	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	21	21	124	524	119	52	21	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	4.0%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	116	490	108	51	21	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.7%	4.2%	5.09	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	192	1116	4728	1102	463	174	99%	5.8	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.69	4.39	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	198	83	31	99%	5.8	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.69	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		87	86	361	1530	362	186	53	99%	4.1	23.7%	12.2%	11.5%	3.4%	4.31	4.53	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	848	201	103	29	99%	4.1	23.7%	12.2%	11.5%	3.4%	4.31	4.53	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Smith-Shawver (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	24.3%	10.4%	3.6%	—	4.58	24.0%	14.5%	387	-0.14	—	—	—
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	85
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	84
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	84
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	83
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.51	21.6%	4.7%	180	-0.35	4.00	311	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	81
Chase Solesky R 2021 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	21.3%	9.2%	4.9%	.362	4.77	13.5%	5.3%	311	-0.38	4.07	563	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	77
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	126	23.7%	9.7%	1.43	4.68
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38