AJ Smith-Shawver
P
Augusta GreenJackets
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.6 · 2029
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA4.47
FIP4.76
K%25.1%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p6227.1%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.378
FB+1.6 (47%)
CU (15%)
SL-4.3 (4%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Braves | 4 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 2.1 | 42.1% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 8.64 | 5.77 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Braves | 4 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 2.1 | 42.1% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 8.64 | 5.98 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 17 | 17 | 69 | 299 | 103 | 39 | 4 | 100% | 4.0 | 25.5% | 15.4% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 5.11 | 3.66 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 17 | 17 | 69 | 299 | 103 | 39 | 4 | 100% | 4.0 | 34.4% | 13.0% | 21.4% | 1.3% | 5.11 | 2.56 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 20 | 87 | 357 | 99 | 44 | 11 | 95% | 4.2 | 24.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 3.19 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 20 | 87 | 357 | 99 | 44 | 11 | 95% | 4.2 | 27.7% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 3.19 | 3.98 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 93 | 390 | 112 | 42 | 21 | 100% | 4.2 | 25.1% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 6.4% | 4.63 | 5.98 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 93 | 390 | 112 | 42 | 21 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.7% | 10.8% | 17.9% | 5.4% | 4.63 | 4.97 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 54 | 232 | 55 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 4.02 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 54 | 232 | 55 | 25 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 4.02 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 3 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 9 | 50 | 213 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 60 | 251 | 64 | 26 | 9 | — | — | 25.7% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 3.5% | 4.22 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 25.1% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 103 | 434 | 105 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 122 | 516 | 128 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 134 | 567 | 143 | 55 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.50 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 144 | 56 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 143 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 134 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 122 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 110 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 5.08 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 106 | 445 | 98 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 5.31 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.61 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 86 | 34 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.8% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 114 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 124 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.1% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 127 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 121 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 113 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.87 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 102 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 5.08 | 5.21 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 92 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 5.31 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 169 | 168 | 984 | 4159 | 994 | 424 | 158 | 99% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.46 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 202 | 86 | 32 | 99% | 5.8 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 77 | 321 | 1354 | 338 | 176 | 50 | 99% | 4.1 | 24.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.65 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 48 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 110 | 31 | 99% | 4.1 | 24.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.65 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.7% | — | 4.59 | 24.8% | 14.8% | 359 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 84 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 82 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 81 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 80 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 80 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 80 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 79 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 79 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 79 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 78 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.35 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 5.3% | .362 | 4.79 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 311 | -0.56 | 4.08 | 536 | 77 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 76 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 76 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 76 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 75 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.63 | 21.8% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .261 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 14.3% | 117 | +0.47 | 3.63 | 209 | 75 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 75 |
| Michael Forret R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 253 | 74 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 74 |
| Jacob Zibin R 2024 · 5.64 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.64 | 21.2% | 12.4% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 122 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 115 | 24.2% | 10.2% | 1.46 | 4.72 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Drew Smyly ('24) | 8 | 102 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.72 | 4.58 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |