AJ Smith-Shawver

P Atlanta Braves

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	22	22	93	4.63	4.97	28.7%	10.8%	0.5	K 24.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.70
2025	22	MIX2 levels	11	11	54	4.02	3.42	23.7%	10.8%	1.3	K 21.9% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.78
2026	23	MIX3 levels	16	12	60	4.20	4.05	23.9%	9.8%	1.0	K 21.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	6	6	32	4.65	4.73	23.2%	10.5%	0.2
2028PROJ92% MLB	25	MLBATL	8	8	47	4.63	4.62	23.7%	10.0%	0.4
2029PROJ93% MLB	26	MLBATL	9	9	54	4.61	4.60	23.9%	9.9%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.541First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$1M2029Arb-2$3M2030Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

xwOBA vs30

K%27

Form7.13 ERA (proj 4.65) · K 21.0% (proj 23.2%) · BB 9.9% (proj 10.5%) · last 60d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsRyan Garcia (age 24) · Rafael Montero (age 23) · Trent Palmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.65

FIP4.73

K%23.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.3M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	4	4	8	38	16	10	2	100%	2.1	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	5.3%	8.64	5.77	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	4	4	8	38	16	10	2	100%	2.1	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	5.3%	8.64	5.98	—
2022	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	69	299	103	39	4	100%	4.0	25.5%	15.4%	10.1%	1.5%	5.11	3.74	—
2022	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	69	299	103	39	4	100%	4.0	34.4%	13.0%	21.4%	1.3%	5.11	2.56	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	3.5%	3.19	4.51	+0.9
2023	20	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	20	87	357	99	44	11	95%	4.2	27.7%	12.3%	15.4%	3.1%	3.19	3.98	+1.5
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	6.2%	4.63	5.70	-0.3
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	6.2%	4.63	5.70	-0.3
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	93	390	112	42	21	100%	4.2	28.7%	10.8%	17.9%	5.4%	4.63	4.97	+0.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	21.9%	10.9%	10.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.78	+1.0
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	21.9%	10.9%	10.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.78	+1.0
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	54	232	55	25	4	100%	4.9	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	1.7%	4.02	3.42	+1.3
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	60	255	61	25	8	75%	3.8	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.20	4.31	+0.8
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	60	255	61	25	8	75%	3.8	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.20	4.31	+0.8
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	12	60	255	61	25	8	75%	3.8	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.20	4.05	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	20	105	459	93	50	18	80%	4.2	20.3%	10.9%	9.4%	3.9%	4.61	4.98	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	6	6	32	135	31	14	5	100%	5.3	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	3.4%	4.65	4.73	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	51	214	51	21	7	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	245	58	24	8	100%	5.8	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.60	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	247	59	25	9	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.5%	4.62	4.63	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	56	234	56	24	8	100%	6.2	23.7%	10.2%	13.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.72	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	48	201	46	21	7	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	3.7%	4.80	4.88	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	6	6	38	160	36	17	6	100%	6.3	22.4%	10.7%	11.8%	3.9%	4.97	5.09	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	47	198	47	20	7	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	54	228	54	23	8	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.60	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	55	232	55	23	8	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	3.5%	4.62	4.63	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	53	224	53	23	8	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.2%	13.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.72	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	45	190	44	20	7	100%	5.6	23.2%	10.4%	12.8%	3.7%	4.80	4.88	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	36	152	34	16	6	100%	6.0	22.4%	10.7%	11.8%	3.9%	4.97	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	69	396	1685	381	174	62	93%	5.3	22.6%	10.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.68	4.51	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	852	193	88	31	93%	5.4	22.6%	10.4%	12.3%	3.7%	4.68	4.51	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		91	86	371	1571	377	189	56	95%	4.1	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	3.6%	4.31	4.55	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	846	203	102	30	95%	4.1	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	3.6%	4.31	4.55	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 22 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.19 (+0.21)K% 28.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.74%	—	×0.860	24.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×0.900	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 7 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.73 (+1.51)K% 37.5% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.740	27.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.42%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 9 IPFIP 1.62 → 1.88 (+0.26)K% 32.5% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.50%	—	×0.860	27.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 87 IPFIP 5.09 → 5.70 (+0.61)K% 28.5% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.49%	—	×0.860	24.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.96%	—	×0.900	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	5.48%	÷0.968	×1.100	6.23%

Result: FIP 5.09 → 5.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 41 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.27 (+0.28)K% 27.5% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.49%	—	×0.860	23.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.20%	—	×0.900	13.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.61%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 14 IPFIP 0.34 → 1.34 (+1.01)K% 44.2% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.23%	—	×0.770	34.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.022	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.34 → 1.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMississippi Braves · 7 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.42 (+0.63)K% 31.0% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.810	25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.100	11.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.793	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 59).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 69 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.74 (+1.17)K% 34.4% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.45%	—	×0.740	25.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.180	15.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.127	×1.300	1.54%

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Smith-Shawver (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.62	23.8%	13.8%	167	-0.11	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	81
Trevor May R 2014 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP	4.40	20.7%	9.9%	3.3%	.369	3.18	25.0%	19.1%	157	-1.22	3.05	477	81
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	80
Bud Norris R 2009 · 4.47 FIP	24	SP	4.47	21.7%	9.6%	3.6%	.309	4.01	22.5%	13.5%	508	-0.46	3.51	1,221	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	75
Tim Redding R 2002 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	4.48	13.8%	5.4%	307	+0.08	3.97	822	75
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	74
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.53	25.0%	17.4%	216	-0.14	2.28	474	74
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	73
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	73
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.88	21.4%	13.4%	369	-0.61	3.03	492	73
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	73
Silvano Hechavarria R 2024 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	20.0%	10.3%	2.4%	.212	5.06	15.6%	5.4%	169	+1.01	3.90	218	73
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	45	22.7%	10.4%	1.41	4.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Danny Frisella ('67-'76, 4 WAR*)	3.0	68	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.25*	3.99*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*