Jacob Steinmetz
P
ACL D-backs
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%17.5%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 8.17 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 12.10 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 11 | 7 | 24 | 117 | 27 | 20 | 1 | 64% | 2.2 | 15.7% | 21.4% | -5.7% | 1.0% | 7.88 | 5.01 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 11 | 7 | 24 | 117 | 27 | 20 | 1 | 64% | 2.2 | 23.1% | 17.1% | 6.0% | 0.9% | 7.88 | 3.89 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 19 | 16 | 73 | 335 | 62 | 44 | 8 | 84% | 3.8 | 13.7% | 15.5% | -1.8% | 3.1% | 6.19 | 5.60 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 19 | 16 | 73 | 335 | 62 | 44 | 8 | 84% | 3.8 | 18.5% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 6.19 | 4.64 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 108 | 474 | 113 | 41 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 4.01 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 108 | 474 | 113 | 41 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 1.3% | 4.01 | 2.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 4 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 2.1 | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 5.00 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 73 | 308 | 62 | 35 | 9 | — | — | 20.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 131 | 553 | 106 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 132 | 559 | 112 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.59 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 132 | 559 | 114 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 130 | 551 | 113 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 127 | 535 | 109 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 103 | 51 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 114 | 480 | 95 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 106 | 447 | 87 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.16 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 78 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.25 | 5.38 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 45 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 74 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 4.63 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 91 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 96 | 45 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 97 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 93 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 88 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 81 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.20 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 73 | 43 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 147 | 147 | 877 | 3705 | 737 | 374 | 120 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.47 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 85 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 51 | 214 | 970 | 163 | 134 | 21 | 88% | 3.7 | 16.9% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 5.21 | 4.63 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 48 | 200 | 907 | 153 | 125 | 20 | 88% | 3.7 | 16.9% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 5.21 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Steinmetz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 396 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.80 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.56 | 2.21 | 778 | 87 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 84 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .323 | 5.46 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.22 | 4.24 | 193 | 84 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 83 |
| Derek True R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.5% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.67 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 73 | -0.09 | 4.50 | 170 | 83 |
| Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 83 |
| Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 82 |
| Cameron Wagoner R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.24 | 29.8% | 23.6% | 27 | -0.83 | 3.24 | 127 | 82 |
| Logan Evans R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.52 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.20 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 125 | -0.32 | 4.20 | 232 | 82 |
| Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 6.36 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 91 | +1.40 | 4.96 | 213 | 81 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 81 |
| Zach Fruit R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 81 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 81 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 81 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .314 | 4.77 | 19.3% | 3.9% | 162 | +0.47 | 4.22 | 373 | 81 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.09 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .280 | 4.70 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | -0.39 | 4.44 | 326 | 81 |
| Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .302 | 4.74 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 40 | +0.40 | 4.34 | 151 | 81 |
| J.P. France R 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 81 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.96 | 19.7% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .357 | 4.88 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 167 | +0.92 | 3.96 | 260 | 81 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 122 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 1.20 | 4.79 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |