Jacob Steinmetz

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#858ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	AARI	19	16	73	6.19	4.64	18.5%	13.1%	—	K 13.7% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.61
2024	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	108	4.01	2.87	23.8%	8.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.79
2026	23	MIX3 levels	12	11	35	2.55	3.13	33.3%	16.7%	—	K 24.2% · BB 18.1% · FIP 4.12
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	1	1	1	4.97	4.97	21.5%	13.8%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBARI	5	5	31	4.72	4.66	21.9%	12.3%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBARI	8	8	48	4.63	4.60	22.1%	12.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.8M2033Ext$0.7M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 4.8, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 83%

CompsZach Fruit (age 24) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · Trace Bright (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%21.5%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	10	0	4	0	100%	1.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	6.75	8.17	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	10	0	4	0	100%	1.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	6.75	12.10	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	11	7	24	117	27	20	1	64%	2.2	15.7%	21.4%	-5.7%	1.1%	7.88	5.07	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	11	7	24	117	27	20	1	64%	2.2	23.1%	17.1%	6.0%	0.9%	7.88	3.89	—
2023	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	19	16	73	335	62	44	8	84%	3.8	13.7%	15.5%	-1.8%	3.1%	6.19	5.61	—
2023	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	19	16	73	335	62	44	8	84%	3.8	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	2.4%	6.19	4.64	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	100%	4.7	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	1.7%	4.01	3.79	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	100%	4.7	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	1.7%	4.01	3.79	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	100%	4.7	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	1.3%	4.01	2.87	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	35	150	50	25	2	92%	2.9	24.2%	18.1%	6.1%	1.4%	2.55	4.12	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	35	150	50	25	2	92%	2.9	24.2%	18.1%	6.1%	1.4%	2.55	4.12	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	35	150	50	25	2	92%	2.9	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	1.3%	2.55	3.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	2.8%	4.97	4.97	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	102	432	95	53	12	100%	5.7	21.9%	12.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.81	4.75	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	94	395	87	47	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	2.8%	4.72	4.69	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	89	375	83	44	11	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.70	4.71	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	84	354	78	42	11	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.9%	10.1%	3.0%	4.74	4.78	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	78	328	71	40	10	100%	6.0	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.84	4.91	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	70	297	63	37	10	100%	5.9	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	3.4%	4.99	5.09	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	5	5	31	131	29	16	4	100%	6.2	21.9%	12.3%	9.5%	2.7%	4.72	4.66	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	48	203	45	24	5	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	2.7%	4.63	4.60	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	9	9	56	236	52	28	6	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.7%	4.61	4.62	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	60	253	56	30	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.65	4.69	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	60	253	55	31	8	100%	6.0	21.7%	12.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.74	4.81	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	57	241	51	30	8	100%	5.7	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	3.2%	4.89	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	312	1319	288	159	38	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.36	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	184	102	24	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.71	4.36	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		66	58	241	1086	186	156	22	88%	3.7	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	2.0%	4.85	4.57	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	48	200	901	154	129	18	88%	3.7	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	2.0%	4.85	4.57	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 21 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.12 (+1.06)K% 31.5% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.46%	—	×0.770	24.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.73%	—	×1.150	18.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 9 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.88 (+1.11)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.740	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.42%	—	×1.180	21.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 5 IPFIP 4.02 → 6.70 (+2.68)K% 43.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.48%	—	×0.680	29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.39%	—	×1.250	21.74%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 6.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hillsboro Hops · 58 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.30 (+0.94)K% 20.7% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.770	15.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.150	10.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷0.875	×1.250	2.19%

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AVisalia Rawhide · 50 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.17 (+0.88)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.70%	—	×0.740	20.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.180	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.102	×1.300	1.11%

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AVisalia Rawhide · 73 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.61 (+1.09)K% 18.5% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.51%	—	×0.740	13.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.13%	—	×1.180	15.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷1.003	×1.300	3.10%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 24 IPFIP 3.79 → 5.07 (+1.28)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.680	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.09%	—	×1.250	21.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.119	×1.400	1.07%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Steinmetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.72	22.0%	10.0%	285	-0.25	—	—	—
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	85
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	82
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	81
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	81
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	81
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	80
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	80
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	79
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	79
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	79
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	78
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	78
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	92	21.8%	12.4%	1.15	4.83
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Mike Kilkenny ('69-'73, 0 WAR*)	2.0	102	22.2%*	11.4%*	1.11*	5.16*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42