Jacob Steinmetz — OGILVIE

Jacob Steinmetz P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%17.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD3045

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	10	0	4	0	100%	1.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	6.75	8.17	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	10	0	4	0	100%	1.3	0.0%	40.0%	-40.0%	0.0%	6.75	12.10	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	11	7	24	117	27	20	1	64%	2.2	15.7%	21.4%	-5.7%	1.1%	7.88	5.07	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	11	7	24	117	27	20	1	64%	2.2	23.1%	17.1%	6.0%	0.9%	7.88	3.89	—
2023	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	19	16	73	335	62	44	8	84%	3.8	13.7%	15.5%	-1.8%	3.1%	6.19	5.61	—
2023	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	19	16	73	335	62	44	8	84%	3.8	13.7%	15.5%	-1.8%	3.1%	6.19	5.61	—
2023	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	19	16	73	335	62	44	8	84%	3.8	18.5%	13.1%	5.4%	2.4%	6.19	4.64	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	100%	4.7	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	1.7%	4.01	3.79	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	100%	4.7	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	1.7%	4.01	3.79	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	100%	4.7	23.8%	8.6%	15.2%	1.3%	4.01	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	12	11	35	150	50	25	2	92%	2.9	24.2%	18.1%	6.1%	1.4%	2.55	4.12	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	12	11	35	150	50	25	2	92%	2.9	24.2%	18.1%	6.1%	1.4%	2.55	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	ARI	3	3	5	23	10	4	1	100%	1.8	43.5%	17.4%	26.1%	4.3%	6.75	4.02	—
2026	23	A RAW	ARI	4	4	9	38	12	7	0	100%	2.2	31.6%	18.4%	13.2%	0.0%	5.00	2.77	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	5	4	21	89	28	14	1	80%	4.2	31.5%	15.7%	15.7%	1.1%	0.43	3.05	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	11	45	8	5	1	100%	5.4	17.5%	11.3%	6.2%	2.8%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	46	195	58	30	3	—	—	29.7%	15.4%	14.2%	1.7%	3.12	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	131	553	106	58	16	100%	5.7	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	2.8%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	132	559	112	55	16	100%	5.8	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.66	4.59	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	132	559	114	55	16	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.54	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	130	551	113	54	16	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	127	535	109	53	16	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	3.0%	4.62	4.66	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	121	510	103	52	16	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	114	480	95	50	16	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.96	-0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	447	87	48	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.6%	5.05	5.17	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	56	236	45	25	6	100%	5.6	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	2.7%	4.72	4.65	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	88	372	74	37	10	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	2.7%	4.57	4.50	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	91	43	12	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.49	4.45	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	111	469	96	46	13	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	2.7%	4.48	4.48	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	19	19	113	477	97	47	13	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.53	4.57	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	110	464	93	47	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.63	4.70	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	105	443	88	46	14	100%	5.8	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.86	-0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	99	418	81	45	14	100%	6.2	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.4%	4.94	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	132	787	3321	665	336	96	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.63	4.28	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	85	24	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.63	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		66	58	241	1086	186	156	22	88%	3.7	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	2.0%	4.85	4.57	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	48	200	901	154	129	18	88%	3.7	17.1%	14.3%	2.8%	2.0%	4.85	4.57	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Steinmetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	17.5%	11.3%	2.8%	—	4.62	19.8%	9.8%	396	-0.37	—	—	—
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	86
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	84
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	82
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	82
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	81
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	81
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	81
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	80
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	80
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	80
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	80
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	80
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	80
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	80
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	79
Angel Ventura R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP-	4.28	17.9%	10.9%	2.4%	.285	4.66	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.38	3.42	393	79
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	125	19.7%	10.3%	1.16	4.76
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45