Jacob Steinmetz — OGILVIE

Jacob Steinmetz P Hillsboro Hops

+0.9 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2029

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.5%

IP108

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	10	0	4	0	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	11	7	24	117	27	20	1	15.7%	21.4%	1.0%	7.88	5.05	-0.0
2023	20	A	Visalia Rawhide	19	16	73	335	62	44	8	13.7%	15.5%	3.1%	6.19	5.61	-0.4
2024	21	A+	Hillsboro Hops	23	23	108	474	113	41	6	18.0%	10.1%	1.7%	4.01	3.80	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	ARI	20	20	108	455	97	45	13	21.3%	9.8%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	ARI	23	23	126	534	117	49	15	21.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.39	4.34	+1.4
2028	25	MLB	ARI	25	25	140	591	132	52	17	22.3%	8.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.26	+1.7
2029	26	MLB	ARI	27	27	147	621	140	54	18	22.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.27	4.24	+1.8
2030	27	MLB	ARI	27	27	150	633	142	55	18	22.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.26	4.25	+1.8
2031	28	MLB	ARI	27	27	150	632	142	56	18	22.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.27	4.28	+1.7
2032	29	MLB	ARI	27	27	146	618	138	55	18	22.3%	8.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.32	+1.6
2033	30	MLB	ARI	26	26	142	599	133	54	18	22.1%	9.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.39	+1.5
2034	31	MLB	ARI	25	25	137	578	127	53	18	21.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.46	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	ARI	24	24	131	555	120	51	17	21.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.50	4.55	+1.1
2036	33	MLB	ARI	23	23	126	530	113	50	17	21.3%	9.4%	3.2%	4.59	4.64	+0.9
2037	34	MLB	ARI	22	22	119	503	105	48	17	21.0%	9.6%	3.3%	4.69	4.75	+0.7
2038	35	MLB	ARI	20	20	112	474	98	47	16	20.6%	9.8%	3.4%	4.80	4.88	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	ARI	19	19	105	443	89	45	16	20.1%	10.1%	3.6%	4.93	5.01	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			54	47	206	936	149	129	20	16.0%	13.7%	2.1%	5.25	4.65	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			53	46	200	910	145	125	19	16.0%	13.7%	2.1%	5.25	4.65	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Steinmetz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.3%	9.8%	2.8%	—	4.28	22.3%	13.3%	413	-0.20	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	94
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	93
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	93
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	92
R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	92
Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	92
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	19.3%	10.7%	2.5%	.315	4.02	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.15	3.77	420	92
Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP-	4.02	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.45	17.7%	4.3%	141	+1.43	4.02	262	92
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	91
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	91
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.52	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.40	4.07	663	91
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	91
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	90
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	90
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	89
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	89
Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	20.6%	10.6%	2.9%	.358	3.57	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.73	3.57	182	89
Riley Gowens R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	22.6%	10.3%	3.9%	.279	4.35	22.4%	12.5%	132	-0.28	4.35	254	89
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	89
Nolan McLean R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.12	26.2%	15.9%	185	-1.28	2.20	295	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.5	$15M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.3	$13M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
Totals		$14M		$87M	+$72M