Carson Williams — OGILVIE

Carson WilliamsSS Durham Bulls

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.227 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2029

wRC+†vL 8155vR 10

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .256 / .375

PA248

HR11

SB11

K%39

BB%8

MLB%55%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗32

PWR

52↗60

SPD

55↗57

FLD

62↗65

EYE

48↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.227 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$17M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+2.0	$18M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+1.8	$17M	+$6M
Totals		$23M		$78M	+$55M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	47	41	9	3	1	0	4	18	2	2	2	.220	.319	.341	.661	.122	.391	38	9	.248	48	-3	-0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	523	472	83	13	6	15	37	243	10	28	10	.176	.250	.324	.575	.148	.313	46	7	.252	51	-29	+2	+0	+6	+15	-0.7
2023	20	A+	4 teams	585	535	94	16	5	19	39	253	10	25	13	.176	.245	.331	.576	.155	.284	43	7	.252	51	-33	-0	+0	+6	+17	-1.0
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	505	453	93	17	4	18	38	187	9	33	11	.205	.280	.380	.660	.174	.296	37	8	.290	80	-11	+2	+0	+5	+14	1.1
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	557	507	88	13	6	19	43	218	4	24	7	.174	.244	.335	.579	.162	.255	39	8	.253	52	-30	+2	-1	+6	+16	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	AAA	2 teams	91	84	16	3	0	2	4	29	1	5	1	.190	.236	.298	.534	.107	.259	32	4	.229	33	-7	+1	-1	+1	+3	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	TB	157	144	26	4	1	6	11	59	1	6	1	.181	.244	.347	.591	.167	.257	38	7	.274	68	-6	+1	-0	+2	+4	0.1
TOT	23	MLB	TB	248	228	42	7	1	8	15	88	2	11	2	.184	.241	.329	.570	.145	.254	35	6	.258	55	-13	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 73%	TB	633	572	113	17	4	27	50	215	6	26	6	.198	.269	.383	.652	.185	.258	34	8	.290	80	-14	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.3
2028	25	MLB 89%	TB	638	575	116	18	4	27	52	210	6	26	6	.202	.275	.388	.663	.186	.262	33	8	.296	85	-11	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.6
2029	26	MLB	TB	638	574	118	19	4	27	53	206	6	26	6	.206	.280	.394	.673	.188	.264	32	8	.299	87	-9	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.8
2030	27	MLB	TB	633	569	118	19	4	27	53	204	6	26	5	.207	.282	.397	.679	.190	.265	32	8	.300	88	-9	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.9
2031	28	MLB	TB	625	561	115	18	4	26	53	203	6	24	5	.205	.281	.390	.671	.185	.265	32	8	.299	87	-9	+3	-1	+7	+18	1.7
2032	29	MLB	TB	613	550	113	18	4	26	52	200	6	23	4	.205	.281	.395	.676	.189	.264	33	8	.297	85	-10	+3	-2	+7	+17	1.5
2033	30	MLB	TB	601	539	109	17	4	25	51	198	6	21	4	.202	.279	.388	.666	.186	.262	33	8	.294	83	-12	+3	-3	+6	+17	1.2
2034	31	MLB	TB	586	525	104	16	3	24	50	196	6	18	3	.198	.275	.377	.653	.179	.260	33	9	.290	80	-13	+2	-3	+6	+17	0.9
2035	32	MLB	TB	567	509	99	15	3	22	48	193	5	15	2	.194	.270	.365	.636	.171	.258	34	8	.285	76	-15	+2	-4	+6	+16	0.5
2036	33	MLB	TB	537	481	92	14	3	20	46	186	5	12	1	.191	.269	.358	.626	.166	.256	35	9	.280	72	-17	+2	-5	+6	+15	0.1
2037	34	MLB	TB	489	441	82	12	3	18	41	174	4	9	0	.186	.261	.349	.611	.163	.254	36	8	.273	67	-18	+2	-5	+5	+14	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8934	8048	1572	249	63	346	721	3163	98	344	86	.195	.270	.371	.641	.176	.268	35	8	.284	75	-249	+34	-26	+96	+253	11.1
/ 162G	—			650	586	114	18	5	25	52	230	7	25	6	.195	.268	.370	.639	.176	.266	35	8	.284	75	-18	+3	-2	+7	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	.282	.404	.436	.840	.154	.423	28	13	.380	149	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	.252	.349	.471	.820	.219	.354	32	11	.360	133	+20	+2	—	—	+15	3.7
2023	20	AAA	Durham Bulls	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	.077	.200	.154	.354	.077	.143	40	13	.179	-5	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	20	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	26	21	9	2	0	0	4	5	1	3	1	.429	.538	.524	1.062	.095	.562	19	15	.478	224	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2023	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	462	401	102	18	7	23	53	147	7	17	9	.254	.351	.506	.858	.252	.341	32	11	.375	145	+24	-0	—	—	+13	3.7
2023	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	82	69	17	2	0	0	11	30	2	5	3	.246	.366	.275	.641	.029	.436	37	13	.308	94	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	.256	.356	.469	.825	.212	.332	29	11	.362	135	+20	+2	—	—	+14	3.7
2025	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	.172	.219	.354	.573	.182	.240	42	6	.251	50	-6	+0	-1	+6	+3	0.2
2025	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	451	389	83	12	5	23	56	154	4	22	6	.213	.318	.447	.766	.234	.282	34	12	.338	117	+8	+2	—	—	+13	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	.172	.219	.354	.573	.182	.240	42	6	.251	50	-6	+0	-1	+6	+3	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Williams (OGILVIE)	23	30→32	52→60	55→57	45	.184/.256/.375	.191	.257	11	9	39%	8%	73	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Canario 2023 · AAA	23	36→34	58→60	53→50	39	.206/.265/.407	.201	.278	27	17	36%	7%	84	+0.6	.216/.277/.401	.185	.303	24	12	35%	7%	88	+0.9	.211/.275/.376	.165	.297	22	8	35%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	52→50	37	.208/.266/.387	.178	.310	23	17	39%	7%	79	+0.3	.209/.272/.395	.186	.271	26	12	32%	7%	84	+0.6	.200/.266/.385	.185	.241	27	10	30%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Jesse Franklin V 2023 · AA	24	39→29	57→65	53→55	36	.209/.270/.405	.196	.300	26	15	39%	6%	86	+0.8	.216/.280/.397	.181	.310	23	19	37%	6%	89	+0.9	.202/.269/.396	.194	.280	27	24	37%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Greg Halman 2011 · MLB	23	33→40	55→60	50	31	.188/.237/.369	.181	.285	25	15	43%	5%	63	-0.9	.214/.262/.354	.140	.336	16	19	39%	5%	68	-0.5	.246/.287/.355	.109	.379	8	30	35%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	43→44	54→55	56→55	42	.224/.287/.400	.176	.302	22	22	33%	7%	92	+1.2	.204/.276/.344	.140	.280	16	17	31%	8%	72	-0.2	.184/.266/.306	.121	.251	14	16	31%	9%	55	-0.9
✕Justin Maxwell 2008 · MLB	24	42→45	55→60	54→60	39	.221/.279/.401	.180	.298	24	19	34%	6%	89	+0.9	.219/.293/.380	.161	.300	19	27	32%	9%	89	+0.9	.221/.295/.429	.208	.301	26	17	34%	9%	97	+0.7
✕Brandon Wood 2008 · MLB	23	42→45	58→65	51→50	39	.226/.277/.430	.204	.295	25	11	33%	6%	95	+1.4	.213/.263/.381	.168	.271	22	8	30%	6%	76	+0.1	.200/.248/.356	.156	.246	22	5	29%	5%	61	-0.8
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2021 · MLB	23	37→47	54→60	53→60	38	.201/.262/.380	.179	.293	23	14	39%	7%	76	+0.1	.237/.298/.434	.197	.306	25	24	30%	7%	105	+2.1	.248/.322/.446	.198	.304	27	36	27%	9%	113	+2.3
✕Nick Pratto 2022 · AAA	23	37→43	56→55	50	41	.198/.275/.393	.195	.292	24	12	40%	9%	85	+0.7	.202/.286/.375	.173	.297	21	8	37%	9%	85	+0.7	.189/.270/.330	.141	.287	17	8	38%	9%	64	-0.6
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	44→50	53→55	52→55	42	.227/.289/.396	.169	.319	22	13	35%	8%	91	+1.1	.230/.295/.400	.170	.324	21	23	33%	8%	95	+1.4	.222/.291/.389	.167	.310	21	27	34%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2016 · AAA	24	40→36	51→50	52→50	39	.208/.268/.366	.158	.303	20	14	37%	7%	74	-0.1	.177/.239/.282	.105	.284	10	10	39%	7%	40	-2.4	.146/.211/.234	.087	.237	8	9	40%	7%	12	-2.1
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	39→43	51→55	54→50	47	.204/.289/.363	.160	.282	18	16	33%	10%	82	+0.5	.215/.301/.392	.177	.270	21	10	27%	10%	95	+1.4	.206/.293/.385	.178	.247	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.6
✕Brian Pellegrini 2009 · A	24	36→33	57→60	55→45	38	.201/.269/.396	.195	.264	25	11	34%	6%	83	+0.6	.212/.280/.420	.208	.269	30	7	33%	7%	95	+1.4	.205/.278/.422	.217	.247	33	5	32%	8%	93	+0.8
●Nolan Gorman 2023 · MLB	23	42→43	56→60	50→45	39	.227/.278/.408	.182	.297	26	6	33%	6%	90	+1.0	.221/.293/.425	.204	.294	29	7	34%	9%	101	+1.8	.211/.294/.417	.206	.276	29	6	34%	10%	96	+1.1
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	49→50	52→55	41	.194/.257/.337	.143	.263	18	19	33%	7%	63	-0.9	.184/.262/.320	.136	.261	17	22	35%	8%	61	-1.0	.178/.268/.330	.152	.242	18	26	33%	8%	64	-0.3
●Jo Adell 2022 · MLB	23	42→44	52→65	49→50	36	.219/.267/.387	.168	.307	21	10	35%	5%	79	+0.3	.212/.270/.401	.189	.290	25	12	35%	6%	85	+0.7	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4
✕Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	53→50	56→55	39	.212/.255/.381	.169	.263	21	21	29%	5%	72	-0.2	.229/.283/.361	.132	.292	14	23	25%	7%	79	+0.3	.239/.300/.355	.117	.301	11	27	23%	7%	81	+0.4
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	41→46	54→60	49→50	41	.216/.279/.394	.178	.298	22	15	34%	7%	86	+0.8	.225/.298/.429	.204	.290	27	11	31%	9%	104	+2.0	.219/.298/.421	.202	.276	27	10	30%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Dérmis Garcia 2022 · AA	24	34→38	58→60	49→45	33	.188/.247/.379	.191	.310	28	9	47%	7%	69	-0.4	.195/.261/.364	.169	.303	23	7	41%	7%	71	-0.3	.177/.245/.325	.149	.262	20	4	39%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2023 · MLB	24	44→41	55	52→50	41	.231/.282/.421	.189	.295	23	17	30%	6%	95	+1.4	.229/.287/.358	.129	.283	15	13	24%	7%	80	+0.4	.229/.291/.326	.096	.278	11	10	21%	7%	70	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)