Carson Williams — OGILVIE

Carson WilliamsSS Durham Bulls

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs MLB HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.227 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION494 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 6461vR 50

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP274

ISO175

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 37 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT37

Whiff%

3113.1%

xAVG

100.168

POWER60

Barrel%

457.6

Avg EV

1085.5

Bat Spd

7674.0

EYE42

Chase%

8225.4%

SPEED57

Sprint

5827.8

DEFENSE68

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025 · 106 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

101

◀◀L

wOBA

317

217

◀◀L

ISO

273

136

◀◀L

BABIP

200

257

▶▶R

40.5%

42.0%

◀L

BB%

10.8%

2.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.227 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.1M		$-0.2M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	282	404	436	840	154	423	28	13	380	143	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	252	349	471	820	219	354	32	11	360	129	+18	+2	—	—	+11	3.2
2023	20	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	77	200	154	354	77	143	40	13	179	7	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	20	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	26	21	9	2	0	0	4	5	1	3	1	429	538	524	1.062	95	562	19	15	478	210	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	401	102	18	7	23	53	147	7	17	9	254	351	506	858	252	341	32	11	375	140	+22	-0	—	—	+10	3.2
2023	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	82	69	17	2	0	0	11	30	2	5	3	246	366	275	641	29	436	37	13	308	95	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	256	356	469	825	212	332	29	11	362	131	+19	+2	—	—	+11	3.3
2025	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	251	56	-6	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.2
2025	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	451	389	83	12	5	23	56	154	4	22	6	213	318	447	766	234	282	34	12	338	115	+8	+2	—	—	+10	2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	251	56	-6	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	8	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	195	298	317	615	122	327	40	9	248	54	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	472	84	14	6	15	37	242	10	28	10	178	252	328	581	150	306	46	7	252	57	-27	+2	—	—	+11	-1.4
2023	20	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	15	14	1	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	71	133	143	276	71	116	47	7	125	-29	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2023	20	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	26	22	9	2	0	0	3	6	1	3	1	409	500	500	1.000	91	539	23	12	419	170	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	421	73	12	5	15	33	207	7	17	9	173	245	333	578	159	284	45	7	249	55	-25	-0	—	—	+10	-1.5
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	453	96	17	5	16	38	176	9	33	11	212	286	377	663	166	291	35	8	287	80	-12	+2	—	—	+11	0.1
2025	22	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	242	50	-6	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.1
2025	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	451	408	68	10	5	12	37	175	4	22	6	167	243	304	547	137	250	39	8	241	49	-27	+2	—	—	+10	-1.6
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	8	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	195	298	317	615	122	364	40	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	282	404	436	840	154	423	28	13	380	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	472	84	14	6	15	37	242	10	28	10	178	252	328	581	150	317	46	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	252	349	471	820	219	354	32	11	360	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	585	531	96	16	6	18	43	257	10	25	13	181	255	335	590	154	304	44	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	585	504	129	23	7	23	70	188	10	25	13	256	358	466	824	210	361	32	12	365	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	453	96	17	5	16	38	176	9	33	11	212	286	377	663	166	301	35	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	256	356	469	825	212	332	29	11	362	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	507	85	13	5	17	43	219	4	24	7	168	238	314	552	146	250	39	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	557	488	100	15	5	28	62	198	4	24	7	205	300	428	728	223	274	36	11	321	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	8	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	195	298	317	615	122	327	40	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	471	84	14	6	15	37	242	10	28	10	178	252	329	581	151	306	46	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	585	527	96	16	6	18	43	257	10	25	13	182	255	338	593	156	292	44	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	453	96	17	5	16	38	176	9	33	11	212	286	377	663	166	291	35	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	505	85	13	5	17	43	219	4	24	7	168	238	315	553	147	248	39	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	585	527	96	16	6	18	43	257	10	25	13	182	255	338	593	156	292	44	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	453	96	17	5	16	38	176	9	33	11	212	286	377	663	166	291	35	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	505	85	13	5	17	43	219	4	24	7	168	238	315	553	147	248	39	8	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	TB	—	494	448	77	11	4	9	41	194	2	23	8	172	244	275	519	103	275	39	8	235	45	-32	+1	-1	+5	+11	-1.6
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TB	—	40	37	4	1	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	108	154	216	370	108	130	32	5	164	45	-3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.2
YTD	23	AAA RAW	TB	—	454	393	90	13	5	12	57	151	2	23	8	229	330	379	709	150	336	33	13	320	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	MLB RAW	TB	—	40	37	4	1	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	108	154	216	370	108	130	32	5	164	-3	-5	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.5
ROS	23	AAA MLE	TB	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		265	40	10	258	61	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TB	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		274	40	10	260	61	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TB	—	50	46	5	1	0	1	3	17	0	0	0	109	163	196	359	87	143	34	6	183	45	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.3
TOT	23	AAA MLE	TB	—	504	457	78	11	4	9	42	198	2	23	8	171	244	271	515	101	274	39	8	235	45	-33	+1	-1	+5	+11	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	65%	602	542	105	15	5	20	51	215	4	24	7	194	268	351	619	157	272	36	8	275	72	-20	+2	-7	+6	+13	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	65%	637	574	115	17	5	23	54	220	4	25	8	200	274	368	641	167	274	35	8	285	79	-16	+2	-7	+7	+14	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	65%	637	573	117	17	5	24	55	216	4	25	8	204	278	377	655	173	276	34	9	291	83	-13	+2	-7	+7	+14	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	65%	632	568	117	17	5	24	55	213	4	25	8	206	281	380	661	174	276	34	9	292	84	-12	+2	-7	+7	+14	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	65%	624	560	114	17	5	23	55	211	4	24	7	204	279	375	654	171	276	34	9	292	83	-12	+2	-8	+7	+14	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	65%	612	549	110	16	4	22	54	209	4	21	6	200	277	364	641	164	275	34	9	290	82	-13	+2	-8	+7	+13	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	65%	600	538	108	16	4	22	53	206	4	19	6	201	277	368	645	167	274	34	9	287	81	-14	+1	-9	+6	+13	-0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	TB	65%	585	524	104	15	4	21	52	203	4	16	5	198	276	363	638	164	272	35	9	284	78	-15	+1	-9	+6	+13	-0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	TB	65%	566	508	98	14	4	19	50	198	3	13	4	193	269	348	618	156	268	35	9	278	75	-17	+1	-10	+6	+12	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	65%	391	353	69	10	3	13	33	140	2	16	5	195	268	351	619	156	280	36	8	278	72	-13	+1	-4	+4	+8	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	65%	414	373	77	11	4	15	35	143	3	16	5	206	280	378	658	172	283	35	8	288	79	-10	+1	-5	+4	+9	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	65%	414	372	78	12	3	16	36	141	3	16	5	210	285	387	672	177	284	34	9	294	83	-8	+1	-5	+4	+9	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	65%	411	369	78	12	3	16	36	139	3	16	5	211	287	390	677	179	285	34	9	295	84	-8	+1	-5	+4	+9	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	65%	406	364	77	12	3	16	36	138	3	15	5	212	288	393	681	181	284	34	9	294	83	-8	+1	-5	+4	+9	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	65%	398	357	74	11	3	15	35	136	3	14	4	207	284	381	664	174	284	34	9	292	82	-8	+1	-5	+4	+9	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	65%	390	349	73	11	3	15	35	134	3	12	4	209	287	387	674	178	282	34	9	289	81	-9	+1	-6	+4	+8	-0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	TB	65%	380	341	69	10	3	14	34	132	2	10	3	202	279	372	651	170	280	35	9	286	78	-10	+1	-6	+4	+8	-0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	TB	65%	368	330	67	10	3	13	33	129	2	8	3	203	279	370	649	167	277	35	9	281	75	-11	+0	-6	+4	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3688	3316	680	102	28	138	320	1280	24	125	40	205	280	378	657	172	283	35	9	287	74	-92	+9	-47	+44	+80	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	120	18	5	24	56	226	4	22	7	205	279	377	656	171	285	35	9	287	74	-16	+2	-8	+8	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7722	6949	1358	207	64	264	645	2808	70	304	102	195	270	358	628	162	280	36	8	278	74	-138	+15	-72	+65	+122	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	113	17	5	22	54	236	6	26	9	193	268	352	620	159	276	36	8	278	74	-16	+2	-8	+8	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.9	3,928	143	137	200	271	368	+42	-5	6.1	5.8
/162	664	24	23	+7.1	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Williams (OGILVIE)	23	38→37	56→60	57	42	179/251/317	138	265	7	11	38%	8%	61	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Canario 2023 · AAA	23	36→34	56→60	53→50	39	201/262/388	187	274	25	17	36%	7%	80	-0.1	212/275/381	169	303	21	11	35%	7%	83	+0.1	207/271/362	155	296	20	8	36%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	53→60	53→50	38	207/267/377	170	307	21	17	39%	7%	80	-0.2	209/273/389	180	270	24	11	31%	7%	85	+0.2	200/266/380	180	243	26	10	30%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	43→44	51→55	56→55	42	220/284/382	162	298	19	23	32%	7%	86	+0.3	202/275/330	128	280	14	17	31%	8%	72	-0.7	185/267/299	114	254	13	16	31%	9%	59	-1.1
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	42→40	51→50	51→55	45	218/285/381	163	274	18	17	27%	7%	87	+0.4	175/249/292	117	254	14	21	35%	7%	54	-2.0	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Greg Halman 2011 · MLB	23	33→40	54→55	50	31	185/235/358	173	281	24	15	43%	5%	63	-1.3	218/267/356	138	338	15	19	38%	5%	74	-0.5	246/287/358	112	379	9	30	35%	4%	78	-0.1
✕Sean Coyle 2015 · AA	23	42→36	51→50	54→50	38	218/272/373	156	303	19	14	34%	6%	80	-0.1	185/247/300	115	287	12	11	38%	7%	54	-2.0	147/213/234	88	235	8	9	39%	7%	23	-1.8
✕Brandon Wood 2009 · MLB	24	40→45	55→65	49→50	40	219/272/400	181	278	24	11	31%	6%	86	+0.3	207/254/353	146	262	19	5	28%	5%	69	-0.9	196/241/325	129	246	17	1	28%	5%	55	-1.1
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2021 · MLB	23	37→47	53→60	53→60	39	199/263/367	168	289	21	14	38%	7%	76	-0.4	247/307/448	201	318	25	25	29%	7%	110	+2.1	247/321/445	199	302	28	36	27%	9%	112	+1.9
●Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	51→50	56→60	39	211/255/370	159	265	20	22	29%	5%	73	-0.6	230/286/350	120	294	11	24	24%	7%	80	-0.2	266/329/370	104	332	7	30	21%	8%	98	+0.9
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Rodolfo Castro 2022 · MLB	23	38→41	52→55	45→50	37	209/253/371	163	268	21	8	31%	5%	73	-0.6	213/276/359	146	284	18	8	30%	7%	79	-0.2	203/272/345	142	266	17	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	45→50	51→55	52→55	43	228/290/387	159	317	20	13	33%	8%	90	+0.6	230/295/403	173	322	21	23	33%	8%	96	+1.0	223/292/397	174	309	22	27	34%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Justin Maxwell 2008 · MLB	24	42→44	54→60	54→60	39	222/282/401	179	302	23	20	34%	6%	91	+0.6	217/293/366	149	301	17	28	32%	9%	86	+0.3	221/295/426	205	300	26	17	34%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	216/275/390	173	253	21	15	24%	7%	85	+0.2	224/289/407	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+0.9	221/290/400	179	249	21	19	21%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43	51→55	57→50	48	219/303/382	163	293	19	14	31%	10%	94	+0.9	215/289/381	166	264	20	8	26%	8%	88	+0.5	208/282/381	173	246	21	5	25%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2023 · MLB	24	44→49	53→50	52→50	42	227/279/402	175	290	20	17	29%	6%	89	+0.5	226/285/345	119	279	13	12	23%	7%	78	-0.3	241/293/341	100	295	13	8	22%	6%	79	-0.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2008 · AA	24	37→47	53→55	51→50	42	204/263/375	171	253	22	10	30%	6%	78	-0.3	212/261/364	152	268	17	11	27%	5%	74	-0.6	239/297/403	165	282	19	7	22%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	45→52	48→55	51→55	44	224/288/368	143	289	15	21	27%	7%	84	+0.2	210/273/359	149	279	16	17	30%	7%	78	-0.3	189/253/336	146	255	17	17	32%	7%	62	-0.7
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	37→47	48→55	48→55	42	197/259/341	144	266	16	12	32%	7%	68	-1.0	215/261/367	152	281	19	15	30%	5%	75	-0.5	224/265/381	157	284	20	15	28%	5%	77	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps