Carson Williams

SS Durham Bulls

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.401 · Ctrl thru 2032 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAA40M40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AATB	505	.256/.356/.469	20	33	89	—	.222/.298/.399
2025	22	AAATB	451	.213/.318/.447	23	22	57	—	.175/.254/.315
2025	22	MLBTB	106	.172/.219/.354	5	2	51	0.1
2026	23	AAATB	476	.228/.328/.381	12	23	57	—	.187/.264/.299
2026	23	MLBTB	40	.108/.154/.216	1	0	-2	0.0
2027PROJ49% MLB	24	MLBTB	76	.193/.266/.362	3	3	75	-0.0
2028PROJ53% MLB	25	MLBTB	170	.197/.271/.372	6	6	79	0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	26	MLBTB	191	.201/.275/.377	7	7	82	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.401First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed93

Max EV84

BB%67

Chase%47

K%11

Z-Con%11

CompsAaron Palensky (age 25) · Nelson Velázquez (age 24) · Alexander Canario (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7875vR 64

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .266 / .362

PA76

HR3

K%34

BB%8

BABIP260

ISO188

MLB%49%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.168

POWER

Barrel%

457.6

Avg EV

1085.5

Bat Spd

7674.0

SPEED

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2025 · 106 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

101

◀◀L

wOBA

317

217

◀◀L

ISO

273

136

◀◀L

BABIP

200

257

▶▶R

40.5%

42.0%

◀L

BB%

10.8%

2.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.401 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	282	404	436	840	154	423	28	13	380	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	252	349	471	820	219	354	32	11	360	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	77	200	154	354	77	143	40	13	179	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	26	21	9	2	0	0	4	5	1	3	1	429	538	524	1.062	95	562	19	15	478	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	401	102	18	7	23	53	147	7	17	9	254	351	506	858	252	341	32	11	375	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	82	69	17	2	0	0	11	30	2	5	3	246	366	275	641	29	436	37	13	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	256	356	469	825	212	332	29	11	362	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	251	51	-6	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.1
2025	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	451	389	83	12	5	23	56	154	4	22	6	213	318	447	766	234	282	34	12	338	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	40	37	4	1	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	108	154	216	370	108	130	32	5	164	-2	-5	+0	-1	+6	+1	0.0
2026	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	476	412	94	13	7	12	58	158	3	23	9	228	328	381	709	153	335	33	12	319	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	146	136	21	4	0	6	8	57	0	2	1	154	201	316	518	162	205	39	5	227	40	-10	+0	-2	+11	+3	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	9	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	220	319	341	661	122	335	40	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	467	87	15	7	14	42	232	10	28	10	186	268	338	606	152	318	44	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	15	14	1	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	71	133	143	276	71	122	47	7	131	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	26	22	9	2	0	0	3	6	1	3	1	409	500	500	1.000	91	561	23	12	435	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	423	75	12	5	17	31	203	7	17	9	177	245	350	595	173	281	44	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	451	100	19	5	17	40	176	9	33	11	222	298	399	697	177	305	35	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	244	51	-6	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.1
2025	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	451	406	71	11	5	12	39	175	4	22	6	175	254	315	569	140	265	39	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	40	37	4	1	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	108	154	216	370	108	130	32	5	166	-2	-5	+0	-1	+6	+1	0.0
2026	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	476	428	80	10	7	8	42	189	3	23	9	187	264	299	563	112	306	40	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	9	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	220	319	341	661	122	409	40	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	282	404	436	840	154	423	28	13	380	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	467	87	15	7	14	42	232	10	28	10	186	268	338	606	152	326	44	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	252	349	471	820	219	354	32	11	360	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	585	533	100	17	6	20	41	251	10	25	13	188	259	355	613	167	304	43	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	585	504	129	23	7	23	70	188	10	25	13	256	358	466	824	210	361	32	12	365	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	451	100	19	5	17	40	176	9	33	11	222	298	399	697	177	316	35	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	256	356	469	825	212	332	29	11	362	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	505	87	14	5	17	45	219	4	24	7	172	245	321	566	149	259	39	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	557	488	100	15	5	28	62	198	4	24	7	205	300	428	728	223	274	36	11	321	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	516	465	84	11	7	9	44	202	3	23	9	181	256	292	548	112	292	39	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	516	449	98	14	7	13	60	171	3	23	9	218	314	367	682	149	317	33	12	307	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	9	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	220	319	341	661	122	335	40	9	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	466	87	15	7	14	42	232	10	28	10	187	268	339	607	152	318	44	8	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	585	529	100	17	6	20	41	251	10	25	13	189	259	357	616	168	291	43	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	451	100	19	5	17	40	176	9	33	11	222	298	399	697	177	305	35	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	503	87	14	5	17	45	219	4	24	7	173	245	322	568	149	260	39	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	516	464	84	11	7	9	44	202	3	23	9	181	256	293	549	112	292	39	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	451	100	19	5	17	40	176	9	33	11	222	298	399	697	177	305	35	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	557	503	87	14	5	17	45	219	4	24	7	173	245	322	568	149	260	39	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	516	464	84	11	7	9	44	202	3	23	9	181	256	293	549	112	292	39	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	49%	380	342	66	9	4	14	32	131	3	14	3	192	265	364	629	172	257	34	8	279	75	-11	+2	-4	+4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	49%	76	69	14	2	1	3	6	26	1	3	1	193	266	362	628	169	260	34	8	279	75	-2	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	53%	321	289	56	8	3	12	27	108	2	12	3	196	270	374	644	177	259	34	8	285	79	-8	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	55%	349	314	63	9	3	14	29	116	3	13	3	199	274	379	653	180	261	33	8	289	82	-8	+1	-3	+4	+8	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	350	314	63	9	3	13	30	115	3	13	3	201	275	378	653	177	262	33	9	290	82	-7	+1	-3	+4	+8	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	54%	346	311	63	9	3	13	29	112	3	11	3	201	275	375	651	174	263	32	8	289	82	-8	+1	-4	+4	+7	0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	333	300	61	9	3	12	28	107	2	9	2	201	275	371	646	170	264	32	8	287	80	-8	+1	-5	+4	+7	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	52%	321	289	57	8	3	11	27	104	2	7	2	199	272	364	635	165	262	32	8	283	78	-9	+1	-5	+3	+7	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	53%	170	153	30	4	2	6	14	57	1	6	2	197	271	372	643	174	262	34	8	285	79	-4	+0	-2	+2	+4	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	55%	191	172	35	5	2	7	16	63	1	7	2	201	275	377	652	177	264	33	8	289	82	-4	+1	-2	+2	+4	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	191	172	35	5	2	7	16	62	1	7	2	202	276	376	652	174	266	32	8	289	82	-4	+1	-2	+2	+4	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	54%	188	169	35	5	2	7	16	61	1	6	2	203	276	373	650	171	267	32	9	289	82	-4	+0	-2	+2	+4	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	177	159	33	5	2	6	15	57	1	5	1	203	276	369	645	167	267	32	8	287	80	-4	+1	-3	+2	+4	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	52%	168	151	30	4	1	6	14	55	1	4	1	200	273	362	635	162	265	33	8	283	78	-4	+0	-3	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1231	1112	219	32	11	45	99	412	6	37	11	197	266	367	633	170	263	33	8	280	72	-36	+3	-15	+23	+27	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	116	17	6	24	52	218	3	20	6	198	266	370	636	172	264	34	8	280	72	-19	+2	-8	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4908	4419	858	135	51	158	399	1814	54	206	69	194	269	355	624	161	283	37	8	274	72	-62	+7	-28	+35	+50	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	114	18	7	21	53	240	7	27	9	195	269	357	627	162	284	37	8	274	72	-17	+2	-8	+10	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 476 PAwOBA .313 → .253 (−59)K% 33.2% → 39.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.19%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	39.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.18%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.83%
HBP% /PA	0.63%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.62%
Singles /BIP	24.41%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.963	×1.050	22.95%
Doubles /BIP	5.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.963	×1.050	4.29%
Triples /BIP	2.76%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.963	×1.050	2.70%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.47%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .313 → .253; ISO .153 → .118; BABIP .335 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 451 PAwOBA .329 → .253 (−77)K% 34.1% → 38.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.15%	÷1.057	×1.200	—	—	38.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.42%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.74%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.88%
Singles /BIP	18.30%	÷0.956	×0.930	×0.976	×1.050	18.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.11%	÷0.940	×0.830	×0.976	×1.050	4.62%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.976	×1.050	2.35%
Home runs /BIP	9.79%	÷1.380	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.21%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .329 → .253; ISO .234 → .149; BABIP .282 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 505 PAwOBA .356 → .300 (−56)K% 28.5% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.51%	÷0.999	×1.220	—	—	34.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.29%	÷1.022	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.88%
HBP% /PA	1.78%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.57%
Singles /BIP	22.49%	÷1.008	×0.920	×0.969	×1.050	20.89%
Doubles /BIP	6.92%	÷0.972	×0.910	×0.969	×1.050	6.59%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.115	×0.880	×0.969	×1.050	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	6.92%	÷0.958	×0.800	—	×1.050	6.07%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .356 → .300; ISO .212 → .183; BABIP .332 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 462 PAwOBA .366 → .258 (−108)K% 31.8% → 43.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.82%	÷0.950	×1.310	—	—	43.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.47%	÷1.060	×0.600	—	×1.042	6.76%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	1.22%
Singles /BIP	21.26%	÷1.008	×0.870	×0.971	×1.042	18.57%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷1.047	×0.780	×0.971	×1.042	5.34%
Triples /BIP	2.76%	÷1.103	×0.850	×0.971	×1.042	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	9.06%	÷1.066	×0.880	—	×1.042	7.79%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .366 → .258; ISO .252 → .183; BABIP .341 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 26 PAwOBA .467 → .435 (−32)K% 19.2% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷1.022	×1.220	—	—	22.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷1.072	×0.680	—	×1.050	10.25%
HBP% /PA	3.85%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.39%
Singles /BIP	43.75%	÷0.949	×0.920	—	×1.050	44.51%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.030	×0.910	—	×1.050	11.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.087	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .467 → .435; ISO .095 → .091; BABIP .562 → .561. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 15 PAwOBA .175 → .131 (−44)K% 40.0% → 47.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	47.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.55%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.930	—	×1.050	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.020	×0.830	—	×1.050	12.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.137	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .175 → .131; ISO .077 → .060; BABIP .143 → .122. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 523 PAwOBA .352 → .265 (−87)K% 32.1% → 44.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.12%	÷0.985	×1.360	—	—	44.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.90%	÷0.983	×0.690	—	×1.045	7.99%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.56%
Singles /BIP	22.18%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.962	×1.045	21.14%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷1.066	×0.830	×0.962	×1.045	6.07%
Triples /BIP	3.52%	÷1.053	×0.910	×0.962	×1.045	3.06%
Home runs /BIP	6.69%	÷0.943	×0.800	—	×1.045	5.93%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 94, 2B 113, 3B 111, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .352 → .265; ISO .219 → .160; BABIP .354 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Rays · 47 PAwOBA .370 → .252 (−118)K% 27.7% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.66%	÷1.005	×1.440	—	—	39.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.77%	÷0.999	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.10%
HBP% /PA	4.26%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	3.13%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.990	×0.820	—	×1.022	19.54%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.006	×0.720	—	×1.022	11.25%
Triples /BIP	3.85%	÷1.065	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.66%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.948	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 101, 3B 113, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .370 → .252; ISO .154 → .098; BABIP .423 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.9	1,268	49	40	198	266	373	+14	-3	2.1	2.1
/162	664	25	21	+7.1	-1.6	1.1	pk7: 2
#2Pete Mackanin'73-'81 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,686 PA	2.5	1,686	30	27	222*	261*	370*	+6	+23	0.6	1.6
/162	664	12	11	+2.4	+8.9	0.2	pk7: 3
#3Pedro Garcia'73-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,967 PA	3.0	1,967	37	35	220*	270*	388*	+6	-6	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	12	12	+2.1	-2.0	-0.1	pk7: -0
#4Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#5Johnnie LeMaster'75-'87 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,515 PA	5.3	3,515	22	94	218*	275*	313*	+37	-13	-3.1	-0.9
/162	664	4	18	+7.0	-2.4	-0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Williams (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	190/263/361	171	257	6	6	34%	8%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→39	53→60	53→50	38	209/269/382	173	310	22	17	39%	7%	82	-0.0	211/276/393	182	273	25	11	31%	8%	87	+0.4	202/269/384	182	246	26	10	30%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Alexander Canario 2024 · MLB	24	41→36	55→60	52→50	40	215/276/403	188	297	24	13	35%	7%	89	+0.5	220/284/380	160	317	20	10	35%	8%	86	+0.3	208/276/362	155	297	21	9	36%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	42	53→55	47→50	42	221/281/392	171	284	21	10	30%	7%	88	+0.4	212/278/350	138	282	17	9	30%	7%	78	-0.3	198/268/323	125	260	15	12	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2024 · AA	24	41→51	51→55	50→55	41	213/274/368	155	292	20	18	33%	7%	80	-0.2	227/265/382	155	285	19	12	27%	4%	80	-0.2	228/259/382	154	275	20	9	25%	3%	75	-0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2016 · AAA	24	42→38	50	52→50	40	212/274/364	153	310	19	13	37%	7%	79	-0.2	181/244/285	104	283	10	10	37%	7%	49	-2.4	153/218/242	88	242	7	9	38%	7%	27	-1.9
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	36→41	46→50	53→55	41	190/255/315	125	268	15	19	34%	7%	61	-1.5	185/268/313	128	266	15	22	34%	8%	66	-1.1	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	40→45	52→55	53→50	41	212/272/383	171	282	20	17	32%	7%	83	+0.1	213/260/353	140	300	17	15	33%	5%	71	-0.8	203/246/328	125	292	16	15	35%	5%	58	-1.1
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	39→43	51→55	52→50	45	204/280/371	167	286	19	14	34%	9%	83	+0.1	217/293/379	162	329	18	12	36%	10%	89	+0.5	211/292/367	157	326	17	12	38%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2024 · AAA	24	40→42	52→50	52→40	44	210/289/381	170	282	20	6	32%	8%	89	+0.5	191/274/317	126	274	14	4	34%	8%	70	-0.9	163/254/270	107	234	13	1	34%	8%	49	-1.5
✕Justin Maxwell 2008 · MLB	24	42→45	54→60	54→60	39	220/279/396	176	299	23	20	34%	6%	88	+0.5	219/295/373	154	303	18	28	32%	9%	89	+0.5	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Jesse Franklin V 2023 · AA	24	38→28	55→60	53→55	36	206/267/389	184	295	24	15	38%	6%	83	+0.1	215/279/376	161	305	20	18	35%	6%	84	+0.1	199/266/371	171	275	23	24	35%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Kenedy Corona 2024 · AA	24	41→42	48→50	54→55	41	211/269/351	141	285	16	24	31%	7%	74	-0.5	207/273/312	105	285	10	24	29%	7%	67	-1.1	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Franklin Barreto 2020 · MLB	24	44→50	53→55	53→50	38	221/282/395	174	320	20	13	36%	6%	89	+0.5	200/265/339	139	313	15	16	39%	7%	70	-0.8	134/207/236	103	209	14	17	41%	7%	23	-1.4
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	37→34	50	51→50	45	191/282/348	157	275	18	12	35%	10%	79	-0.2	183/265/327	144	301	17	12	42%	8%	68	-1.0	158/244/297	139	268	18	12	45%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2023 · MLB	24	45→49	53→55	52→50	42	233/286/414	181	299	21	17	29%	7%	95	+0.9	228/287/349	121	281	13	12	23%	7%	80	-0.2	241/292/345	104	296	13	9	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Gabriel Cancel 2022 · AAA	25	37→46	51→50	54→50	36	200/248/358	158	286	20	19	37%	6%	68	-1.0	197/261/316	119	313	13	14	38%	7%	63	-1.4	172/248/269	96	280	10	10	39%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Denzel Clarke 2024 · AA	24	44	51→50	58→55	42	212/299/377	164	333	18	19	39%	9%	92	+0.7	219/288/349	130	338	12	24	36%	7%	80	-0.1	215/283/336	120	333	10	29	36%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Brett Auerbach 2023 · AA	24	40→34	50→45	50→55	40	208/271/356	148	302	19	17	36%	7%	76	-0.4	201/260/308	107	298	10	16	34%	7%	61	-1.5	192/254/283	91	282	7	17	33%	7%	49	-1.1

Carson Williams

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps