Carson Williams — OGILVIE

Carson WilliamsSS Durham Bulls

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.227 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION329 act + 219 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9373vR 19

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .267 / .368

PA219

HR8

SB8

K%36

BB%8

BABIP274

ISO171

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT35

Whiff%

2513.8%

xwOBA

100.224

POWER60

Barrel%

396.8

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

7674.0

EYE47

Chase%

7626.7%

SPEED58

Sprint

5827.8

DEFENSE67

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025 · 106 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

101

◀◀L

wOBA

317

217

◀◀L

ISO

273

136

◀◀L

BABIP

200

257

▶▶R

40.5%

42.0%

◀L

BB%

10.8%

2.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.227 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$9M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+1.2	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$18M		$33M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	41	8	3	1	0	4	19	2	2	2	195	298	317	615	122	364	40	9	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	282	404	436	840	154	423	28	13	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	472	84	13	6	16	37	246	10	28	10	178	252	333	585	155	319	47	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	252	349	471	820	219	354	32	11	360	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	4 teams	—	585	533	90	15	5	16	41	270	10	25	13	169	241	306	547	137	298	46	7	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	4 teams	—	585	504	129	23	7	23	70	188	10	25	13	256	358	466	824	210	361	32	12	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	453	95	17	4	19	38	186	9	33	11	210	284	391	675	181	300	37	8	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	256	356	469	825	212	332	29	11	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	—	557	507	91	15	6	17	43	210	4	24	7	179	249	333	582	154	263	38	8	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	2 teams	—	557	488	100	15	5	28	62	198	4	24	7	205	300	428	728	223	274	36	11	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AAA	TB	—	329	300	57	9	3	9	25	121	2	13	6	190	257	330	587	140	281	37	8	256	54	-17	+0	-1	+4	+9	-0.5
YTD	23	AAA	TB	—	329	289	68	12	3	11	36	103	2	13	6	235	324	412	736	176	324	31	11	327	109	+3	+0	-1	+4	+9	1.5
ROS	23	AAA	TB	100%	219	198	39	6	2	8	17	78	2	8	3	197	267	368	635	171	266	36	8	278	71	-7	+0	-2	+2	+6	0.0
ROS	23	MLB	TB	100%	219	198	39	6	2	8	17	78	2	8	3	197	267	369	636	172	269	36	8	273	67	-8	+0	-2	+2	+6	-0.1
FULL	23	AAA	TB	—	548	498	96	15	5	17	42	199	4	21	9	193	261	345	606	153	278	36	8	263	59	-25	+1	-3	+6	+16	-0.6
TOT	23	AAA	TB	—	548	498	96	15	5	17	42	199	4	21	9	193	261	345	606	153	278	36	8	265	61	-24	+1	-3	+6	+16	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TB	82%	632	572	115	18	5	24	50	217	5	23	8	201	271	376	647	175	271	34	8	287	78	-16	+1	-4	+7	+18	0.6
2028	25	MLB	TB	82%	637	575	119	19	5	25	52	212	5	23	8	207	278	388	666	181	273	33	8	294	83	-12	+1	-4	+7	+18	1.0
2029	26	MLB	TB	82%	637	575	121	19	5	26	52	208	5	23	8	210	282	397	678	186	275	33	8	298	87	-10	+1	-4	+7	+18	1.2
2030	27	MLB	TB	82%	632	569	120	19	5	25	53	205	5	23	8	211	284	394	678	183	275	32	8	299	87	-9	+1	-4	+7	+18	1.3
2031	28	MLB	TB	82%	624	562	118	19	5	25	52	204	5	21	7	210	283	395	678	185	275	33	8	298	87	-10	+1	-5	+7	+18	1.1
2032	29	MLB	TB	82%	612	550	114	18	4	24	52	201	5	19	6	207	282	385	667	178	274	33	8	297	85	-10	+1	-6	+7	+17	1.0
2033	30	MLB	TB	82%	600	539	111	18	4	23	51	199	5	17	6	206	281	382	663	176	273	33	8	294	83	-11	+1	-6	+6	+17	0.7
2034	31	MLB	TB	82%	585	526	107	17	4	22	50	195	4	15	5	203	278	376	654	173	270	33	9	290	80	-13	+1	-7	+6	+17	0.4
2027	24	MLB	TB	82%	518	468	94	14	4	19	41	178	4	19	6	201	271	370	641	169	274	34	8	282	74	-15	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.3
2028	25	MLB	TB	82%	522	471	98	15	4	20	42	174	4	19	6	208	279	384	663	176	277	33	8	289	79	-12	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.6
2029	26	MLB	TB	82%	522	470	98	15	4	20	43	171	4	19	6	209	280	385	666	177	278	33	8	292	82	-11	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.8
2030	27	MLB	TB	82%	518	466	98	15	4	20	43	168	4	19	6	210	283	388	671	178	278	32	8	293	83	-10	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.8
2031	28	MLB	TB	82%	512	460	97	15	4	20	43	167	4	17	6	211	284	391	675	180	278	33	8	292	82	-10	+1	-4	+5	+15	0.7
2032	29	MLB	TB	82%	502	451	95	15	4	19	42	165	4	16	5	211	284	388	672	177	277	33	8	291	81	-11	+1	-5	+5	+14	0.5
2033	30	MLB	TB	82%	492	443	91	14	4	18	42	163	4	14	5	205	280	377	657	172	276	33	9	288	79	-12	+1	-5	+5	+14	0.3
2034	31	MLB	TB	82%	480	432	90	14	4	18	41	160	4	12	4	208	283	384	667	176	274	33	9	285	76	-13	+1	-6	+5	+14	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4391	3958	817	126	34	167	360	1468	34	145	48	206	278	382	660	176	277	33	8	287	78	-109	+10	-36	+52	+124	4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	122	19	5	25	53	217	5	21	7	208	279	386	665	177	280	33	8	287	78	-16	+1	-5	+8	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	7395	6672	1332	216	61	270	592	2650	76	284	102	200	272	372	644	172	280	36	8	283	75	-210	+16	-44	+79	+210	5.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	117	19	5	24	52	233	7	25	9	200	273	372	645	172	280	36	8	283	75	-18	+1	-4	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	11	4	1	0	6	13	2	2	2	282	404	436	840	154	423	28	13	380	149	+3	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	523	452	114	22	10	19	57	168	10	28	10	252	349	471	820	219	354	32	11	360	133	+20	+2	—	—	+15	3.7
2023	20	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	77	200	154	354	77	143	40	13	179	-5	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	20	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	26	21	9	2	0	0	4	5	1	3	1	429	538	524	1.062	95	562	19	15	478	224	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2023	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	401	102	18	7	23	53	147	7	17	9	254	351	506	858	252	341	32	11	375	145	+24	-0	—	—	+13	3.7
2023	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	82	69	17	2	0	0	11	30	2	5	3	246	366	275	641	29	436	37	13	308	94	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	21	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	505	433	111	20	6	20	58	144	9	33	11	256	356	469	825	212	332	29	11	362	135	+20	+2	—	—	+14	3.7
2025	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	251	50	-6	+0	-1	+6	+3	0.2
2025	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	451	389	83	12	5	23	56	154	4	22	6	213	318	447	766	234	282	34	12	338	117	+8	+2	—	—	+13	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	106	99	17	3	0	5	6	44	0	2	1	172	219	354	573	182	240	42	6	251	50	-6	+0	-1	+6	+3	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,422	175	146	206	275	387	+47	-6	9.4	8.9
	/162	664	26	22	206	275	387	+7.1	-0.8	1.4	pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Williams (OGILVIE)	23	37→35	54→60	56→58	47	193/261/345	153	278	17	21	36%	8%	61	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Canario 2023 · AAA	23	36→34	58→60	53→50	38	203/263/401	197	283	27	17	38%	7%	82	+0.5	215/278/394	179	307	23	11	36%	7%	86	+0.8	210/275/374	164	298	21	8	35%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→38	54→60	53→50	37	208/268/384	176	312	22	17	40%	7%	79	+0.3	213/276/406	193	274	27	11	32%	7%	89	+0.9	206/270/403	197	248	29	10	30%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	42→43	52→55	56→55	41	217/280/383	166	298	20	23	34%	7%	84	+0.6	203/276/341	138	281	16	17	32%	8%	72	-0.2	188/269/315	127	256	15	16	31%	9%	59	-0.7
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Brandon Wood 2008 · MLB	23	42→45	56→65	52→50	39	224/275/420	196	295	24	11	33%	6%	92	+1.2	212/261/377	165	269	22	7	30%	6%	75	-0.0	200/247/355	156	246	22	5	29%	5%	60	-0.8
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	51→55	59→55	46	204/291/370	166	288	19	24	34%	10%	85	+0.7	246/324/427	181	328	21	21	29%	9%	113	+2.6	236/320/399	164	307	19	21	28%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	42→40	52→50	51→55	45	219/286/388	169	275	19	17	28%	8%	88	+0.9	179/253/304	125	255	16	21	35%	8%	53	-1.5	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	52→50	56→55	39	210/253/374	164	262	21	22	29%	5%	70	-0.3	234/287/359	125	298	13	24	25%	6%	79	+0.3	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Justin Maxwell 2008 · MLB	24	42→44	54→60	54→60	39	222/282/401	179	302	23	20	34%	6%	89	+1.0	219/294/375	156	303	18	28	32%	9%	88	+0.9	223/297/433	210	304	27	17	34%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2015 · AA	23	41→34	52→50	54→50	37	214/267/378	164	300	21	14	35%	6%	77	+0.1	185/246/307	122	293	14	11	39%	7%	50	-1.8	146/212/239	93	239	9	9	41%	7%	14	-1.8
✕Drew Robinson 2017 · AAA	25	38→40	54→55	52→50	44	205/277/385	180	283	22	14	35%	9%	83	+0.6	217/290/383	166	323	18	12	36%	9%	88	+0.9	211/290/368	157	322	17	12	37%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→49	54→55	60→55	48	220/301/407	187	268	20	29	26%	8%	99	+1.7	219/284/372	153	274	16	24	25%	8%	82	+0.5	216/279/363	147	269	15	22	25%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2022 · AAA	23	43	53→55	50	38	226/267/403	177	292	21	15	30%	5%	83	+0.6	226/280/374	148	285	17	15	26%	7%	81	+0.4	239/292/343	104	291	13	7	22%	7%	76	+0.0
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2008 · AA	24	37→47	54→55	51→50	41	205/264/381	176	254	23	10	30%	6%	77	+0.1	215/264/376	161	269	19	11	27%	5%	75	-0.0	243/295/401	158	287	19	12	22%	6%	91	+0.9
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	40	53→55	47→50	41	215/272/390	175	275	22	10	30%	6%	82	+0.5	211/275/356	145	278	18	9	30%	7%	75	-0.0	201/269/340	139	259	18	12	29%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Greg Halman 2011 · MLB	23	32→40	55→60	50	31	183/233/359	176	280	24	15	43%	5%	59	-1.1	221/269/360	139	344	15	19	38%	5%	72	-0.2	257/297/375	118	397	9	30	36%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Jonny DeLuca 2023 · AA	25	40→38	58→60	56→55	46	219/283/421	202	243	26	15	23%	7%	95	+1.4	228/293/391	163	266	18	19	21%	7%	92	+1.2	228/294/377	150	266	16	23	21%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Franklin Barreto 2020 · MLB	24	42→48	52→55	53→50	38	216/274/384	169	310	20	13	36%	6%	82	+0.5	194/257/327	133	311	15	16	40%	7%	59	-1.1	126/203/233	107	203	15	17	45%	8%	11	-1.4
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	44→50	56→55	52→55	43	231/294/422	190	319	25	13	35%	8%	100	+1.7	230/295/405	175	321	22	23	33%	8%	95	+1.4	221/291/390	169	308	21	27	33%	8%	88	+0.7
●Jo Adell 2022 · MLB	23	43→44	57→65	50	36	231/275/429	198	308	26	10	34%	5%	94	+1.3	218/276/423	205	293	27	12	34%	6%	93	+1.3	218/285/448	231	251	34	12	29%	7%	102	+1.5