Brett Auerbach
C Sacramento River Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AA/A+SF | 368 | .192/.256/.284 | 6 | 21 | 13 | — | .151/.202/.212 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AASF | 297 | .264/.347/.410 | 4 | 9 | 85 | — | .248/.310/.367 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAASF | 148 | .223/.361/.364 | 4 | 2 | 69 | — | .192/.286/.300 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBSF | 10 | .215/.290/.333 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBSF | 41 | .214/.288/.330 | 1 | 1 | 79 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ37% MLB | 30 | MLBSF | 68 | .212/.286/.326 | 1 | 1 | 77 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 223 | 199 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 60 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 256 | 333 | 533 | 866 | 276 | 290 | 27 | 8 | 376 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 145 | 117 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 29 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 342 | 458 | 521 | 979 | 179 | 427 | 20 | 15 | 425 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 425 | 372 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 136 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 220 | 313 | 398 | 711 | 177 | 294 | 32 | 11 | 317 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 175 | 163 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 153 | 211 | 190 | 402 | 37 | 218 | 30 | 6 | 191 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 193 | 175 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 56 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 229 | 297 | 371 | 668 | 143 | 304 | 29 | 7 | 300 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 223 | 196 | 55 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 281 | 359 | 444 | 803 | 163 | 370 | 25 | 9 | 353 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 74 | 65 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 311 | 308 | 619 | 92 | 298 | 24 | 11 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 148 | 121 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 361 | 364 | 724 | 140 | 287 | 26 | 17 | 333 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 223 | 203 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 14 | 75 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 192 | 261 | 389 | 650 | 197 | 233 | 34 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 145 | 127 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 283 | 359 | 433 | 792 | 150 | 371 | 28 | 8 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 425 | 388 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 169 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 186 | 251 | 325 | 576 | 139 | 276 | 40 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 175 | 166 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 139 | 183 | 169 | 352 | 30 | 216 | 37 | 5 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 193 | 179 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 74 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 162 | 219 | 251 | 470 | 89 | 251 | 38 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 223 | 203 | 54 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 266 | 323 | 399 | 722 | 133 | 356 | 27 | 6 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 74 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 194 | 270 | 269 | 539 | 75 | 281 | 28 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 148 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 108 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 330 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 116 | 8 | 30 | 7 | 224 | 297 | 397 | 694 | 173 | 299 | 32 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 316 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 40 | 89 | 8 | 30 | 7 | 288 | 382 | 528 | 910 | 241 | 347 | 24 | 11 | 395 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 425 | 388 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 169 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 186 | 251 | 325 | 576 | 139 | 280 | 40 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 425 | 372 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 136 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 220 | 313 | 398 | 711 | 177 | 294 | 32 | 11 | 317 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 345 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 138 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 151 | 202 | 212 | 413 | 61 | 235 | 38 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 338 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 108 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 192 | 256 | 284 | 540 | 92 | 262 | 29 | 7 | 248 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 270 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 83 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 248 | 310 | 370 | 680 | 122 | 346 | 28 | 7 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 297 | 261 | 69 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 73 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 264 | 347 | 410 | 757 | 146 | 351 | 25 | 10 | 336 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 148 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 108 | 265 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 148 | 121 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 361 | 364 | 724 | 140 | 287 | 26 | 17 | 333 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 331 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 116 | 8 | 30 | 7 | 224 | 297 | 396 | 692 | 172 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 425 | 388 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 169 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 186 | 251 | 325 | 576 | 139 | 276 | 40 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 343 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 138 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 152 | 202 | 213 | 414 | 61 | 234 | 38 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 271 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 83 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 310 | 369 | 679 | 122 | 337 | 28 | 7 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 148 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 108 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 297 | 271 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 83 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 247 | 310 | 369 | 679 | 122 | 337 | 28 | 7 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 148 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 286 | 300 | 586 | 108 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 10% | 200 | 179 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 55 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 293 | 342 | 635 | 123 | 288 | 28 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 290 | 333 | 623 | 118 | 285 | 30 | 10 | 282 | 80 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 27% | 151 | 136 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 292 | 339 | 630 | 121 | 287 | 28 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 37% | 182 | 163 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 289 | 334 | 624 | 119 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 27% | 41 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 288 | 330 | 618 | 116 | 283 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 79 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 37% | 68 | 61 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 286 | 326 | 612 | 114 | 282 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 77 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 109 | 99 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 284 | 323 | 608 | 111 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 278 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 125 | 30 | 0 | 12 | 54 | 179 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 212 | 285 | 324 | 608 | 112 | 283 | 28 | 8 | 278 | 64 | -17 | +2 | -7 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2044 | 1856 | 377 | 71 | 10 | 46 | 149 | 672 | 23 | 80 | 27 | 203 | 271 | 327 | 597 | 123 | 288 | 33 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -11 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +9 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 121 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 214 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 205 | 271 | 331 | 602 | 125 | 291 | 33 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -17 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 148 PAwOBA .324 → .270 (−55)K% 25.7% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.68% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.22% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×1.042 | ×1.003 | 20.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×1.042 | ×1.003 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.938 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .324 → .270; ISO .140 → .115; BABIP .287 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 223 PAwOBA .345 → .311 (−35)K% 24.7% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.66% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.42% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.82% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 25.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 7.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 2.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .345 → .311; ISO .163 → .137; BABIP .370 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 74 PAwOBA .280 → .240 (−40)K% 24.3% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×0.988 | 19.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.110 | ×0.860 | ×1.035 | ×0.988 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.035 | ×0.988 | 2.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .280 → .240; ISO .092 → .080; BABIP .298 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 193 PAwOBA .293 → .214 (−80)K% 29.0% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.02% | ÷1.021 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷0.975 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.01% | ÷1.047 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×0.978 | 17.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.978 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 3.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .293 → .214; ISO .143 → .098; BABIP .304 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 175 PAwOBA .186 → .159 (−27)K% 29.7% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.71% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.29% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.003 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 2.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .186 → .159; ISO .037 → .029; BABIP .218 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 425 PAwOBA .309 → .253 (−56)K% 32.0% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.00% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.82% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.19% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 20.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.36% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.20% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 6.12% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .309 → .253; ISO .177 → .142; BABIP .294 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Eugene Emeralds · 223 PAwOBA .365 → .276 (−89)K% 26.9% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.91% | ÷1.083 | ×1.350 | — | — | 33.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.07% | ÷0.924 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.42% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 16.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.79% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 8.52% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 127, 3B 106, K 117, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .365 → .276; ISO .276 → .201; BABIP .290 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASan Jose Giants · 145 PAwOBA .424 → .334 (−90)K% 20.0% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.17% | ÷1.203 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.41% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 25.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 9.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.098 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×0.990 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 92, BB 141 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .424 → .334; ISO .179 → .144; BABIP .427 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).