Bryan Perez
P
Fresno Grizzlies
+1.0
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 167 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 2.4 · 2030
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP112
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.4peak
2030
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 32 | 131 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 2.78 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 10.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 9.00 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 10 | 10 | 36 | 180 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 14.0% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 7.43 | 5.78 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 22 | 22 | 112 | 507 | 124 | 53 | 8 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 2.0% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 104 | 48 | 14 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 130 | 53 | 16 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 156 | 657 | 152 | 58 | 19 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 31 | 31 | 170 | 716 | 168 | 61 | 20 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 32 | 32 | 176 | 745 | 176 | 63 | 21 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 32 | 32 | 175 | 740 | 175 | 63 | 21 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 31 | 31 | 173 | 729 | 172 | 63 | 21 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 31 | 31 | 169 | 712 | 167 | 62 | 21 | 23.5% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 30 | 30 | 164 | 691 | 161 | 61 | 21 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 29 | 29 | 158 | 667 | 154 | 59 | 20 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 146 | 58 | 20 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 137 | 56 | 20 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +1.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 138 | 581 | 129 | 55 | 19 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 548 | 119 | 53 | 19 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 44 | 193 | 879 | 147 | 98 | 23 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.56 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 46 | 200 | 912 | 153 | 102 | 24 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.56 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 23.1% | 14.3% | 461 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.28 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 172 | +0.04 | 4.19 | 282 | 96 |
| Jack Wenninger R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 136 | -0.35 | 3.90 | 251 | 95 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.40 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 72 | +0.50 | 3.90 | 193 | 94 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.13 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 225 | +0.43 | 3.65 | 705 | 93 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 92 |
| Austin Cates R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 92 |
| Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 5.45 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 181 | +0.72 | 4.73 | 300 | 91 |
| David Perez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 91 |
| Jason Bahr R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.79 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 155 | +0.28 | 3.32 | 315 | 91 |
| Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 91 |
| Cory Lewis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.42 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .267 | 5.08 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 139 | +1.66 | 3.42 | 240 | 90 |
| Cory Abbott R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.60 | 23.3% | 12.3% | 260 | +0.71 | 3.83 | 703 | 90 |
| Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .335 | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 254 | -0.37 | 3.55 | 357 | 90 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 90 |
| Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .304 | 5.41 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 119 | +0.70 | 4.71 | 226 | 89 |
| Ty Cummings R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .329 | 5.00 | 14.2% | 5.9% | 116 | +0.70 | 4.30 | 233 | 89 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.66 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.74 | 26.6% | 17.0% | 302 | +0.08 | 3.66 | 405 | 89 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Luke Russo R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 89 |
| Roman Angelo R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.2 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +2.1 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.9 | $19M | +$15M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.7 | $18M | +$12M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $12M | $100M | +$88M | ||