Bryan Perez — OGILVIE

Bryan Perez P Spokane Indians

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 167 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%19.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	32	131	35	10	3	82%	2.9	18.2%	9.5%	8.6%	2.8%	2.78	4.32	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	32	131	35	10	3	82%	2.9	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	2.3%	2.78	3.07	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	3	12	61	9	2	1	75%	3.0	10.0%	4.1%	5.9%	2.5%	9.00	4.14	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	3	12	61	9	2	1	75%	3.0	14.8%	3.3%	11.5%	1.6%	9.00	3.18	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	10	36	180	37	16	6	100%	3.6	14.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.5%	7.43	5.81	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	10	36	180	37	16	6	100%	3.6	14.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.5%	7.43	5.81	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	10	10	36	180	37	16	6	100%	3.6	20.6%	8.9%	11.7%	3.3%	7.43	4.53	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	22	22	112	507	124	53	8	100%	5.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	2.0%	4.26	4.26	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	22	22	112	507	124	53	8	100%	5.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	2.0%	4.26	4.26	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	22	22	112	507	124	53	8	100%	5.1	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	1.6%	4.26	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	14	0	19	103	16	15	5	0%	1.3	11.7%	16.3%	-4.6%	6.3%	11.57	7.64	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	14	0	19	103	16	15	5	0%	1.3	11.7%	16.3%	-4.6%	6.3%	11.57	7.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	COL	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	81.00	4.16	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	COL	13	0	18	99	15	14	5	0%	1.4	15.2%	14.1%	1.0%	5.1%	10.31	6.38	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.8%	7.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	25	130	21	18	6	—	—	16.4%	14.0%	2.4%	4.5%	9.89	6.95	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	105	442	92	47	13	100%	5.5	20.8%	10.5%	10.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	107	453	97	44	13	100%	5.6	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	108	458	100	43	13	100%	5.7	21.9%	9.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.37	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	108	458	101	42	13	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.2%	12.8%	2.8%	4.38	4.34	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	107	451	100	42	13	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.3%	12.7%	2.9%	4.38	4.38	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	438	96	41	13	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.5%	12.5%	3.0%	4.43	4.47	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	99	418	91	41	13	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.60	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	93	393	84	39	13	100%	5.8	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	87	366	77	38	13	100%	6.2	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	3.6%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	52	220	46	23	7	100%	5.2	20.8%	10.5%	10.3%	3.3%	4.95	4.87	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	75	317	68	31	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	9.8%	11.7%	3.3%	4.79	4.70	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	88	372	81	35	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.3%	12.5%	3.3%	4.68	4.61	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	95	401	88	37	13	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.2%	12.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.58	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	97	410	90	38	14	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.3%	12.7%	3.3%	4.62	4.62	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	96	405	89	38	14	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.5%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	92	388	84	38	14	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.6%	4.79	4.86	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	87	367	78	37	14	100%	6.2	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	3.8%	4.96	5.06	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	82	346	72	36	14	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	4.1%	5.16	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	129	763	3223	697	312	113	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.42	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	82	30	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		61	44	211	982	159	114	30	72%	3.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.5%	3.1%	5.49	4.90	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	42	200	929	150	108	29	72%	3.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.5%	3.1%	5.49	4.90	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	19.6%	11.8%	2.9%	—	4.49	21.4%	11.5%	320	-0.41	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	91
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	89
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	89
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	88
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	87
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	87
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	86
Nick Davila R 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.04	17.2%	11.0%	196	+0.16	3.51	368	86
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	85
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	85
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	85
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	85
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.30	18.5%	7.5%	314	+0.31	3.70	466	84
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	82
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	100	21.4%	9.9%	1.16	4.57
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70