Bryan Perez
P
Spokane Indians
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 167 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 78 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%21.9%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP78
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 32 | 131 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 82% | 2.9 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 2.78 | 4.15 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 32 | 131 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 82% | 2.9 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 19.1% | 2.3% | 2.78 | 3.07 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 75% | 3.0 | 10.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 9.00 | 4.28 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 75% | 3.0 | 14.8% | 3.3% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 9.00 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 10 | 10 | 36 | 180 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 3.6 | 14.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.43 | 5.74 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 10 | 10 | 36 | 180 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 3.6 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 7.43 | 4.53 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 22 | 22 | 112 | 507 | 124 | 53 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 4.26 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 22 | 22 | 112 | 507 | 124 | 53 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 1.6% | 4.26 | 3.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 13 | 0 | 18 | 99 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 11.7% | 16.3% | -4.6% | 6.3% | 10.31 | 7.64 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 75 | 0 | 78 | 331 | 73 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 97 | 430 | 88 | 47 | 15 | — | — | 20.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 5.59 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 78 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 82 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.20 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 84 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.14 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 85 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 83 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 340 | 80 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 82 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 305 | 76 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 285 | 70 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 4.37 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 64 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 57 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 4.80 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 5.06 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 68 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 74 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 75 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 74 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 77 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 72 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.1% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 67 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 4.1% | 4.67 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 60 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 4.4% | 4.89 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 54 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 4.7% | 5.14 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 5.43 | 5.60 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 127 | 754 | 3184 | 764 | 284 | 119 | 99% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.26 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 75 | 32 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 8.9% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 44 | 211 | 978 | 158 | 114 | 29 | 73% | 3.5 | 16.2% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 5.37 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 42 | 200 | 927 | 150 | 108 | 28 | 73% | 3.5 | 16.2% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 5.37 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.22 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 249 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 85 |
| Nick Davila R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .297 | 3.92 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 196 | -0.04 | 3.26 | 360 | 85 |
| Ian Bedell R 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 85 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 85 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 84 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 83 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 83 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 83 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.71 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.72 | 229 | 83 |
| Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 83 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.31 | 4.31 | 174 | 83 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +1.02 | 3.37 | 306 | 82 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 82 |
| Ryan Dromboski R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.48 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 1.4% | .288 | 4.10 | 17.3% | 4.9% | 53 | +0.62 | 3.48 | 133 | 82 |
| Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 82 |
| Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.70 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .252 | 4.78 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 272 | +0.08 | 4.52 | 366 | 81 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 81 |
| Kyle Scott R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.46 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 3.93 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.53 | 3.93 | 138 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 13 | 74 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 1.23 | 4.35 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |