David Davalillo

P Round Rock Express

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2029

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP47ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	22	21	110	1.88	2.28	25.4%	7.2%	—	K 19.0% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.03
2025	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	107	2.44	2.26	29.6%	6.6%	—	K 23.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.96
2026	23	MIX4 levels	25	24	100	4.59	3.56	25.2%	10.4%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.05
2027PROJ	24	MLBTEX	16	16	90	4.24	4.24	21.4%	8.8%	0.7
2028PROJ59% MLB	25	MLBTEX	12	12	68	4.28	4.23	22.6%	8.5%	0.6
2029PROJ75% MLB	26	MLBTEX	16	16	96	4.22	4.17	23.3%	8.4%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff59Control54Command50FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 75%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Zack Lee (age 23) · Brody McCullough (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%21.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6060

CTRL5055

CMD4050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$20M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	13.50	9.86	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Red	2	0	2	10	0	1	1	0%	1.0	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0%	10.0%	13.50	11.10	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	1.7%	3.32	3.33	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	3	22	91	27	4	1	30%	2.2	29.7%	4.4%	25.3%	1.1%	3.32	1.76	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.88	3.03	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	110	445	113	32	3	95%	5.0	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	0.7%	1.88	2.28	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	23.3%	7.4%	16.0%	1.6%	2.44	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	107	426	126	28	6	96%	4.7	29.6%	6.6%	23.0%	1.4%	2.44	2.26	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	24	100	441	111	46	10	96%	4.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	24	100	441	111	46	10	96%	4.0	20.4%	10.0%	10.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.05	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	24	100	441	111	46	10	96%	4.0	25.2%	10.4%	14.7%	2.3%	4.59	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TEX	16	16	90	380	81	33	10	100%	5.6	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	2.6%	4.24	4.24	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	116	488	110	42	13	100%	5.8	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.7%	4.17	4.12	+1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	128	538	125	45	14	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.4%	14.8%	2.7%	4.11	4.06	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	126	530	123	45	15	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.11	4.11	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	122	514	118	44	15	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.16	4.20	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	116	491	112	43	15	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.0%	4.26	4.33	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	109	461	104	42	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	3.2%	4.41	4.50	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	102	430	95	41	15	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.70	+0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	94	398	86	39	15	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	3.7%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	86	365	77	38	14	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	4.0%	5.02	5.18	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	68	287	65	24	8	100%	5.7	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	96	405	94	34	12	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.4%	14.8%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	104	439	102	37	13	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	107	452	104	39	14	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	3.1%	4.28	4.32	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	105	443	101	39	14	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.2%	4.38	4.45	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	100	422	95	39	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	3.5%	4.54	4.63	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	94	397	88	38	15	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.7%	4.73	4.84	+0.2
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	88	372	80	37	15	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	4.0%	4.94	5.08	-0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	82	346	73	36	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	4.3%	5.18	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	844	3564	802	322	120	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.52	4.19	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	190	76	28	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.4%	4.52	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		82	70	341	1413	291	120	25	85%	4.2	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.01	3.40	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	41	200	829	171	71	14	85%	4.2	20.6%	8.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.01	3.40	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Davalillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	21.4%	8.8%	2.6%	—	4.10	23.0%	14.6%	369	-0.14	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	91
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	88
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	87
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	86
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	86
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	86
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	86
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	84
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	83
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	109	22.4%	9.0%	1.18	4.35
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*