Karson Ligon
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 4 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 75% | 3.0 | 23.3% | 17.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 20 | 89 | 25 | 11 | 2 | — | — | 28.3% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 4.43 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 4 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 75% | 3.0 | 23.3% | 17.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.67 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 50 | 200 | 900 | 210 | 157 | 22 | 75% | 3.0 | 23.3% | 17.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Karson Ligon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 80 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 78 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 77 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 77 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 77 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 77 |
| Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 77 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 76 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 75 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 75 |
| Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.62 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.07 | 3.00 | 113 | 75 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 75 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 74 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 74 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 74 |
| Blair Henley R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 74 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 74 |