Patrick Reilly

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #449MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	27	25	119	3.47	3.99	29.7%	12.0%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.96
2025	23	AABAL	3	3	10	1.86	2.69	21.6%	10.8%	—	K 21.6% · BB 10.8% · FIP 2.64
2026	24	MIX3 levels	13	13	53	5.09	4.76	30.6%	10.5%	—	K 27.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.00
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	24	24	139	4.54	4.54	26.8%	11.0%	0.6
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBBAL	10	10	61	4.58	4.57	26.5%	10.6%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBAL	14	14	87	4.58	4.59	26.2%	10.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$2M2033Ext$2M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsMike Clevinger (age 25) · Isaac Coffey (age 24) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%26.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—40

CMD3040

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.8%	3.47	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.8%	3.47	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	29.7%	12.0%	17.7%	3.5%	3.47	3.99	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.64	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.64	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.69	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	53	229	70	24	12	100%	4.1	27.8%	7.6%	20.3%	6.0%	5.09	5.00	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	53	229	70	24	12	100%	4.1	27.8%	7.6%	20.3%	6.0%	5.09	5.00	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	53	229	70	24	12	100%	4.1	30.6%	10.5%	20.1%	5.2%	5.09	4.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	24	24	139	587	157	64	21	100%	5.8	26.8%	11.0%	15.8%	3.5%	4.54	4.54	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	139	588	156	62	20	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	3.5%	4.49	4.48	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	137	579	152	61	20	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	3.5%	4.49	4.50	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	133	562	145	59	20	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.5%	15.4%	3.6%	4.54	4.58	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	127	537	137	57	20	100%	6.1	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	120	505	127	55	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	3.9%	4.78	4.87	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	111	470	117	53	19	100%	5.9	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	4.1%	4.96	5.08	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	61	258	68	27	9	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.58	4.57	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	87	367	96	38	13	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	3.6%	4.58	4.59	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	109	44	16	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.5%	15.4%	3.7%	4.63	4.67	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	104	439	112	47	17	100%	6.1	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	3.9%	4.72	4.79	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	103	435	110	48	18	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	4.1%	4.88	4.97	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	104	47	18	100%	6.2	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	4.3%	5.06	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	92	554	2338	599	251	91	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.9%	4.75	4.43	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	216	91	33	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.9%	4.75	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		52	41	193	804	205	96	34	79%	3.7	25.5%	12.0%	13.5%	4.3%	3.97	4.82	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	43	200	835	212	100	36	79%	3.7	25.5%	12.0%	13.5%	4.3%	3.97	4.82	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	26.8%	11.0%	3.5%	—	4.52	26.2%	15.7%	410	-0.02	—	—	—
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	76
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	76
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	76
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	75
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	75
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	75
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	74
Ty Madden R 2024 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP-	5.04	22.7%	8.8%	5.0%	.355	4.39	19.3%	9.7%	98	-0.65	4.39	458	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	73
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	73
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	73
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	73
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	72
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	72
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	72
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	72
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	72
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	20.4%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	3.93	17.6%	10.5%	275	-0.36	3.19	627	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	130	25.9%	10.7%	1.42	4.62
Eric Erickson ('14-'22, 2 WAR*)	4.1	164	25.8%*	11.1%*	1.49*	4.56*
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45