Jesus Galiz
C Great Lakes Loons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/A2 orgs | 270 | .221/.323/.351 | 3 | 0 | 37 | — | .166/.256/.263 |
| 2025 | 21 | INTLGlendale Dese… | 32 | .192/.344/.231 | 0 | 0 | 79 | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A+LAD | 68 | .241/.343/.276 | 0 | 0 | 49 | — | .213/.284/.246 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBLAD | 229 | .215/.281/.325 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBLAD | 33 | .215/.283/.333 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBLAD | 75 | .218/.286/.342 | 2 | 1 | 80 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 112 | 101 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 288 | 287 | 575 | 69 | 259 | 15 | 6 | 264 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 99 | 85 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 343 | 471 | 814 | 235 | 286 | 25 | 11 | 361 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 330 | 300 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 74 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 267 | 320 | 407 | 727 | 140 | 323 | 22 | 6 | 320 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 54 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 132 | 62 | 195 | 21 | 67 | 35 | 9 | 105 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 216 | 183 | 49 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 61 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 371 | 426 | 797 | 158 | 377 | 28 | 9 | 355 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 344 | 231 | 575 | 38 | 294 | 28 | 16 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 68 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 343 | 276 | 619 | 34 | 304 | 19 | 13 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 112 | 103 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 198 | 184 | 383 | 49 | 162 | 19 | 4 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 99 | 89 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 242 | 315 | 557 | 157 | 219 | 36 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 330 | 307 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 274 | 339 | 613 | 107 | 312 | 31 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 54 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 113 | 61 | 174 | 20 | 60 | 44 | 7 | 78 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 216 | 188 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 86 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 291 | 314 | 605 | 117 | 312 | 40 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 68 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 284 | 246 | 529 | 33 | 274 | 25 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 112 | 103 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 198 | 184 | 383 | 49 | 169 | 19 | 4 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 112 | 101 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 288 | 287 | 575 | 69 | 259 | 15 | 6 | 264 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 99 | 89 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 242 | 315 | 557 | 157 | 220 | 36 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 99 | 85 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 343 | 471 | 814 | 235 | 286 | 25 | 11 | 361 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 330 | 307 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 274 | 339 | 613 | 107 | 320 | 31 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 330 | 300 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 74 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 267 | 320 | 407 | 727 | 140 | 323 | 22 | 6 | 320 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 237 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 248 | 249 | 497 | 93 | 271 | 41 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 270 | 231 | 51 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 80 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 323 | 351 | 674 | 130 | 316 | 30 | 9 | 305 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL MLE | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 344 | 231 | 575 | 38 | 294 | 28 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL RAW | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 344 | 231 | 575 | 38 | 294 | 28 | 16 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 68 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 284 | 246 | 529 | 33 | 289 | 25 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | Great Lakes Loons | — | 68 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 343 | 276 | 619 | 34 | 304 | 19 | 13 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 112 | 103 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 198 | 184 | 383 | 49 | 162 | 19 | 4 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 99 | 89 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 242 | 315 | 557 | 157 | 219 | 36 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 330 | 309 | 71 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 274 | 337 | 610 | 107 | 312 | 31 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 239 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 248 | 247 | 495 | 92 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 68 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 284 | 242 | 526 | 32 | 274 | 25 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 239 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 110 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 248 | 247 | 495 | 92 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 68 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 284 | 242 | 526 | 32 | 274 | 25 | 9 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAD | 0% | 229 | 207 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 281 | 325 | 606 | 110 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAD | 30% | 108 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 286 | 338 | 624 | 119 | 284 | 27 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAD | 44% | 169 | 152 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 289 | 347 | 637 | 126 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAD | 51% | 229 | 207 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 292 | 353 | 645 | 130 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAD | 52% | 267 | 242 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 69 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 292 | 353 | 645 | 130 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 53% | 291 | 264 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 75 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 291 | 352 | 643 | 129 | 284 | 26 | 8 | 289 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 53% | 298 | 270 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 78 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 288 | 345 | 634 | 125 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 52% | 300 | 271 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 285 | 337 | 622 | 120 | 280 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAD | 30% | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 283 | 333 | 615 | 117 | 277 | 27 | 6 | 277 | 76 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAD | 44% | 75 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 286 | 342 | 628 | 124 | 278 | 27 | 8 | 282 | 80 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAD | 51% | 116 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 288 | 348 | 636 | 129 | 278 | 26 | 8 | 286 | 82 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAD | 52% | 140 | 126 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 289 | 349 | 637 | 129 | 278 | 26 | 8 | 286 | 82 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 53% | 155 | 140 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 288 | 347 | 635 | 128 | 278 | 26 | 8 | 285 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 53% | 157 | 142 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 285 | 340 | 626 | 124 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 282 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 52% | 156 | 141 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 281 | 333 | 614 | 119 | 274 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 832 | 753 | 167 | 30 | 5 | 20 | 64 | 217 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 222 | 291 | 355 | 646 | 133 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 283 | 66 | -20 | +1 | -2 | +15 | +18 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 131 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 170 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 293 | 357 | 650 | 134 | 283 | 26 | 8 | 283 | 66 | -16 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2637 | 2385 | 497 | 100 | 13 | 48 | 187 | 747 | 40 | 24 | 7 | 208 | 277 | 322 | 599 | 113 | 279 | 28 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -42 | +1 | -4 | +31 | +37 | 2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 123 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 184 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 278 | 323 | 601 | 114 | 280 | 28 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -16 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 68 PAwOBA .287 → .241 (−47)K% 19.1% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 3.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .287 → .241; ISO .034 → .028; BABIP .304 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 216 PAwOBA .351 → .259 (−92)K% 28.2% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.24% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷0.943 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.09% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 4.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.015 | 19.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.11% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.015 | 10.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.015 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 114, 2B 95, 3B 95, K 93, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .351 → .259; ISO .158 → .114; BABIP .377 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 54 PAwOBA .105 → .078 (−27)K% 35.2% → 45.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.19% | ÷0.990 | ×1.270 | — | — | 45.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 3.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 3.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 90, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .105 → .078; ISO .021 → .016; BABIP .067 → .060. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 330 PAwOBA .316 → .267 (−49)K% 22.4% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.42% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.36% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.34% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.030 | 24.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.030 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×1.030 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .316 → .267; ISO .140 → .109; BABIP .323 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Dodgers · 99 PAwOBA .351 → .246 (−105)K% 25.3% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.25% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.973 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.979 | ×1.008 | 10.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.931 | ×0.720 | ×0.979 | ×1.008 | 10.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.979 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 5.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 106, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .351 → .246; ISO .235 → .173; BABIP .286 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 112 PAwOBA .260 → .165 (−95)K% 15.2% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.18% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 12.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷0.987 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.062 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.211 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 112, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .260 → .165; ISO .069 → .039; BABIP .259 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .