Luis Valdez
P
Down East Wood Ducks
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 158 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99109vR 118
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.4%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 4.8% | 38.1% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 0.08 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 42.9% | 4.8% | 38.1% | 0.0% | 1.50 | 0.60 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 43 | 164 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 77% | 3.3 | 20.9% | 0.9% | 20.0% | 2.4% | 2.70 | 2.78 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 43 | 164 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 77% | 3.3 | 31.1% | 1.8% | 29.3% | 1.2% | 2.70 | 1.55 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 30 | 137 | 37 | 18 | 2 | 64% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 19.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 4.15 | 4.42 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 30 | 137 | 37 | 18 | 2 | 64% | 2.2 | 27.0% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 1.5% | 4.15 | 3.30 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 3 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33% | 1.9 | 13.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.53 | 6.03 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 3 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33% | 1.9 | 13.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 9.53 | 7.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | TEX | 2 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 23 | 85 | 358 | 77 | 32 | 8 | 70% | 2.6 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 2.1% | 3.59 | 3.58 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 54 | 200 | 839 | 180 | 74 | 18 | 70% | 2.6 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 2.1% | 3.59 | 3.58 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Valdez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.22 | 23.9% | 14.9% | 20 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 82 |
| Ryan Williamson L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 18.4% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.67 | 18.4% | 5.8% | 102 | +1.57 | 4.10 | 123 | 81 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.24 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.6% | .382 | 4.08 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Hunter Patteson L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.16 | 21.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .372 | 5.08 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 287 | +1.92 | 3.16 | 302 | 76 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 75 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 73 |
| Jack Owen L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | .359 | 4.30 | 16.0% | 8.7% | 201 | -0.39 | 3.31 | 221 | 72 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 72 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 72 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 70 |
| Drake Owenby L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.88 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 140 | 70 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 68 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 68 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 68 |
| Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 68 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 68 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 67 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 66 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 66 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 21.8% | 14.0% | 1.4% | .335 | 3.81 | 18.5% | 11.0% | 84 | +0.01 | 3.80 | 152 | 66 |