Axel Sanchez
SS Everett AquaSox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+SEA | 393 | .198/.283/.273 | 5 | 15 | 19 | — | .157/.221/.208 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+SEA | 162 | .206/.321/.375 | 5 | 3 | 70 | — | .188/.283/.344 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/A+SEA | 284 | .218/.332/.385 | 10 | 15 | 58 | — | .181/.271/.309 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSEA | 1 | .197/.276/.323 | 0 | 0 | 72 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBSEA | 70 | .200/.280/.330 | 2 | 2 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBSEA | 124 | .202/.282/.333 | 3 | 3 | 76 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 48
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 191 | 162 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 46 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 259 | 362 | 321 | 683 | 62 | 350 | 24 | 10 | 315 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 34 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 235 | 265 | 500 | 29 | 320 | 26 | 0 | 224 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 152 | 131 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 305 | 401 | 618 | 1.020 | 313 | 395 | 28 | 10 | 440 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 99 | 86 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 267 | 357 | 442 | 799 | 174 | 323 | 20 | 11 | 352 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 305 | 272 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 89 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 199 | 285 | 353 | 638 | 154 | 267 | 29 | 9 | 289 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 393 | 344 | 68 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 111 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 198 | 283 | 273 | 556 | 76 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 255 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 114 | 99 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 242 | 330 | 414 | 744 | 172 | 303 | 26 | 11 | 328 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 48 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 108 | 298 | 270 | 568 | 162 | 136 | 31 | 17 | 271 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 76 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 293 | 358 | 652 | 149 | 250 | 28 | 9 | 292 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 208 | 172 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 43 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 221 | 346 | 395 | 742 | 174 | 248 | 21 | 13 | 333 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 191 | 168 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 167 | 255 | 190 | 446 | 24 | 235 | 29 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 34 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 206 | 235 | 441 | 29 | 293 | 35 | 0 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 152 | 136 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 309 | 478 | 787 | 250 | 336 | 39 | 7 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 99 | 90 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 167 | 235 | 256 | 490 | 89 | 237 | 29 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 305 | 278 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 115 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 147 | 223 | 255 | 478 | 108 | 227 | 38 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 393 | 356 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 149 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 157 | 221 | 208 | 429 | 51 | 242 | 38 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 114 | 102 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 235 | 304 | 402 | 706 | 167 | 292 | 30 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 48 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 234 | 205 | 439 | 128 | 117 | 44 | 12 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 76 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 188 | 253 | 290 | 543 | 101 | 248 | 33 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 208 | 180 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 178 | 278 | 317 | 595 | 139 | 207 | 28 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 191 | 168 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 167 | 255 | 190 | 446 | 24 | 246 | 29 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 191 | 162 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 46 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 259 | 362 | 321 | 683 | 62 | 350 | 24 | 10 | 315 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 285 | 260 | 53 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 100 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 204 | 271 | 369 | 640 | 165 | 294 | 35 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 285 | 251 | 71 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 71 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 283 | 366 | 510 | 876 | 227 | 357 | 25 | 9 | 384 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 305 | 278 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 115 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 147 | 223 | 255 | 478 | 108 | 228 | 38 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Everett AquaSox | — | 305 | 272 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 89 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 199 | 285 | 353 | 638 | 154 | 267 | 29 | 9 | 289 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 393 | 356 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 149 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 157 | 221 | 208 | 429 | 51 | 251 | 38 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Everett AquaSox | — | 393 | 344 | 68 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 111 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 198 | 283 | 273 | 556 | 76 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 255 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 141 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 191 | 283 | 348 | 631 | 156 | 268 | 35 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 162 | 136 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 206 | 321 | 375 | 696 | 169 | 261 | 28 | 12 | 311 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 249 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 83 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 181 | 271 | 309 | 581 | 129 | 228 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 239 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 64 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 218 | 332 | 385 | 717 | 167 | 249 | 23 | 12 | 322 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 191 | 169 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 56 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 166 | 255 | 189 | 445 | 24 | 235 | 29 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 285 | 259 | 53 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 100 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 205 | 271 | 371 | 642 | 166 | 296 | 35 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 305 | 275 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 115 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 149 | 223 | 258 | 481 | 109 | 227 | 38 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 393 | 361 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 149 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 155 | 221 | 205 | 426 | 50 | 242 | 38 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 143 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 189 | 283 | 343 | 626 | 154 | 240 | 35 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 251 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 83 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 179 | 271 | 307 | 578 | 127 | 218 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 393 | 361 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 149 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 155 | 221 | 205 | 426 | 50 | 242 | 38 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 143 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 189 | 283 | 343 | 626 | 154 | 240 | 35 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 251 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 83 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 179 | 271 | 307 | 578 | 127 | 218 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | SEA | 0% | 334 | 298 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 96 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 199 | 278 | 328 | 606 | 129 | 258 | 29 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | SEA | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 126 | 256 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 72 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | SEA | 30% | 231 | 206 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 65 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 202 | 281 | 335 | 616 | 133 | 260 | 28 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | SEA | 44% | 281 | 251 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 79 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 204 | 283 | 338 | 622 | 134 | 262 | 28 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | SEA | 49% | 301 | 268 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 84 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 205 | 284 | 339 | 624 | 134 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 52% | 312 | 278 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 87 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 206 | 284 | 339 | 623 | 133 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 281 | 77 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 51% | 307 | 275 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 85 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 206 | 283 | 336 | 620 | 131 | 264 | 28 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 51% | 303 | 271 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 85 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 203 | 280 | 329 | 609 | 126 | 262 | 28 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | SEA | 30% | 70 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 280 | 330 | 609 | 130 | 258 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | SEA | 44% | 124 | 111 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 282 | 333 | 615 | 131 | 259 | 28 | 8 | 278 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | SEA | 49% | 148 | 133 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 282 | 334 | 617 | 131 | 260 | 28 | 8 | 279 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 52% | 161 | 145 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 282 | 333 | 616 | 130 | 261 | 28 | 8 | 279 | 77 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 51% | 158 | 142 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 282 | 331 | 613 | 128 | 261 | 28 | 8 | 277 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 51% | 156 | 140 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 278 | 324 | 602 | 123 | 260 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 73 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 817 | 734 | 146 | 27 | 0 | 21 | 67 | 229 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 199 | 276 | 322 | 597 | 123 | 256 | 28 | 8 | 277 | 61 | -24 | +1 | -2 | +9 | +18 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 116 | 21 | 0 | 17 | 53 | 182 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 199 | 276 | 322 | 597 | 123 | 254 | 28 | 8 | 277 | 61 | -19 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3537 | 3163 | 602 | 114 | 13 | 80 | 271 | 1096 | 66 | 117 | 43 | 190 | 268 | 310 | 579 | 120 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -57 | +2 | -4 | +21 | +42 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 50 | 201 | 12 | 22 | 8 | 191 | 269 | 312 | 581 | 120 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 208 PAwOBA .330 → .258 (−72)K% 20.7% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 2.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 14.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.961 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 4.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .330 → .258; ISO .174 → .138; BABIP .248 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 76 PAwOBA .288 → .244 (−44)K% 27.6% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.63% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.048 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.048 | 1.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .288 → .244; ISO .149 → .109; BABIP .250 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 114 PAwOBA .323 → .301 (−22)K% 26.3% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.061 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.950 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 20.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷0.914 | ×0.840 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.940 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.800 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.95% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 104, K 112, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .323 → .301; ISO .172 → .174; BABIP .303 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 48 PAwOBA .270 → .200 (−71)K% 31.2% → 44.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.957 | ×1.350 | — | — | 44.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 11.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 3.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 11.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.036 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.63% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .270 → .200; ISO .162 → .120; BABIP .136 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 393 PAwOBA .254 → .197 (−57)K% 28.2% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.24% | ÷1.003 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.91% | ÷1.082 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.18% | ÷0.992 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 2.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.904 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.175 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .254 → .197; ISO .076 → .054; BABIP .268 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 305 PAwOBA .282 → .216 (−66)K% 29.2% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.18% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 37.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.52% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.30% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.85% | ÷1.018 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 14.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.83% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 3.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 105, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .282 → .216; ISO .154 → .114; BABIP .267 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AModesto Nuts · 152 PAwOBA .428 → .326 (−101)K% 27.6% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.63% | ÷0.971 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.87% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.10% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 17.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.61% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 11.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.060 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.030 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.99% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 8.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 109, 2B 112, 3B 112, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .428 → .326; ISO .313 → .247; BABIP .395 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Mariners · 99 PAwOBA .347 → .234 (−113)K% 20.2% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.20% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | 16.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.132 | ×0.720 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.28% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .347 → .234; ISO .174 → .117; BABIP .323 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).