Axel Sanchez — OGILVIE

Axel SanchezSS Everett AquaSox

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION171 act + 119 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .237 / .278

PA119

HR3

K%34

BB%7

BABIP231

ISO111

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 26 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT26

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	191	170	32	3	0	1	12	67	6	15	4	188	266	224	489	35	298	35	6	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	191	162	42	7	0	1	20	46	6	15	4	259	362	321	683	62	350	24	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	3 teams	—	285	260	51	11	3	10	17	102	7	13	3	196	264	377	641	181	275	36	6	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	3 teams	—	285	251	71	19	4	10	26	71	7	13	3	283	366	510	876	227	357	25	9	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	305	280	38	9	2	5	18	114	7	14	4	136	207	236	442	100	205	37	6	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	305	272	54	15	3	7	26	89	7	14	4	199	285	353	638	154	267	29	9	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	393	360	54	5	2	3	19	154	6	15	9	150	205	200	405	50	243	39	5	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	393	344	68	7	2	5	35	111	6	15	9	198	283	273	556	76	268	28	9	255	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	162	142	28	7	0	7	14	57	3	3	4	197	283	394	677	197	263	35	9	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	2 teams	—	162	136	28	8	0	5	20	45	3	3	4	206	321	375	696	169	261	28	12	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	SEA	—	171	150	24	4	0	5	13	59	4	12	1	160	246	287	532	127	211	35	8	231	35	-13	+2	+0	+2	+5	-0.4
YTD	23	A+	SEA	—	171	143	30	5	0	6	20	43	4	12	1	210	323	371	694	161	245	25	12	310	95	-1	+2	+0	+2	+5	0.8
ROS	23	A+	SEA	0%	119	108	18	3	0	3	8	41	2	4	1	167	237	278	515	111	242	34	7	240	42	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						240	0	0	225	31	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	SEA	—	172	151	24	4	0	5	13	59	4	12	1	159	244	285	529	126	209	34	8	231	35	-13	+2	+0	+2	+5	-0.4
TOT	23	A+	SEA	—	290	258	42	7	0	8	21	100	6	16	2	163	242	283	525	120	219	34	7	234	38	-20	+2	+0	+3	+8	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	SEA	30%	366	332	60	11	1	9	26	119	5	11	3	181	251	301	552	120	249	33	7	251	50	-21	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.5
2028	25	MLB	SEA	44%	409	370	69	13	1	10	30	130	6	12	4	186	259	308	567	122	253	32	7	259	56	-20	+1	+0	+4	+12	-0.4
2029	26	MLB	SEA	51%	435	394	75	14	1	11	32	136	6	13	4	190	262	315	576	124	255	31	7	263	60	-20	+1	+0	+5	+12	-0.2
2030	27	MLB	SEA	52%	442	400	77	14	1	12	33	137	6	13	4	193	264	323	587	130	256	31	7	265	61	-20	+1	+0	+5	+13	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	SEA	53%	443	400	76	14	1	12	34	138	6	13	4	190	264	320	584	130	255	31	8	264	60	-20	+1	-1	+5	+13	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	SEA	30%	111	100	18	3	0	3	8	36	2	3	1	180	255	300	555	120	246	32	7	238	40	-8	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	SEA	44%	181	163	31	5	1	5	13	57	3	5	2	190	263	325	588	135	250	31	7	246	46	-11	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.4
2029	26	MLB	SEA	51%	221	200	39	7	1	6	16	69	3	7	2	195	265	330	595	135	252	31	7	250	50	-13	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.3
2030	27	MLB	SEA	52%	232	209	40	7	1	6	18	72	3	7	2	191	265	321	586	129	253	31	8	252	51	-13	+1	+0	+2	+7	-0.3
2031	28	MLB	SEA	53%	236	213	40	7	1	6	18	74	3	7	2	188	261	315	575	127	253	31	8	251	50	-13	+1	-0	+3	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	982	886	168	29	4	26	73	308	14	29	9	190	262	319	581	130	255	31	7	248	48	-57	+2	-0	+11	+28	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	111	19	3	17	48	204	9	19	6	189	261	319	580	130	255	31	7	248	48	-38	+1	-0	+7	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	3550	3216	578	104	12	83	243	1195	60	126	44	180	250	297	547	117	252	34	7	247	47	-213	+8	-1	+38	+101	-6.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	105	19	2	15	44	219	11	23	8	178	248	294	542	115	251	34	7	247	47	-39	+1	-0	+7	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	191	162	42	7	0	1	20	46	6	15	4	259	362	321	683	62	350	24	10	315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2022	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	34	34	8	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	235	235	265	500	29	320	26	0	224	30	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	152	131	40	13	2	8	15	42	6	4	1	305	401	618	1.020	313	395	28	10	440	195	+16	+0	—	—	+4	2.1
2022	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	99	86	23	5	2	2	11	20	1	9	2	267	357	442	799	174	323	20	11	352	128	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	305	272	54	15	3	7	26	89	7	14	4	199	285	353	638	154	267	29	9	289	79	-7	+1	—	—	+9	0.3
2024	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	393	344	68	7	2	5	35	111	6	15	9	198	283	273	556	76	268	28	9	255	54	-21	-1	—	—	+11	-1.0
2025	22	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	114	99	24	5	0	4	12	30	1	3	3	242	330	414	744	172	303	26	11	328	109	+1	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	22	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	48	37	4	3	0	1	8	15	2	0	1	108	298	270	568	162	136	31	17	271	65	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	982	25	29	190	260	318	+11	+6	-0.6	-0.3
	/162	664	17	20	190	260	318	+7.1	+4.1	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Axel Sanchez (OGILVIE)	23	21→26	41→46	54→59	47	163/242/283	120	219	8	16	34%	7%	38	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→28	42→45	48→50	40	187/248/281	94	262	11	15	32%	6%	43	-2.2	194/265/312	118	265	14	14	31%	8%	59	-1.1	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→28	45	50	37	195/254/318	123	282	13	12	35%	6%	56	-1.3	212/270/305	93	320	9	17	34%	6%	59	-1.1	219/278/292	73	339	7	24	35%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	40	43→45	51→55	40	193/267/298	105	296	11	13	36%	7%	56	-1.3	203/272/299	96	311	8	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	170/253/239	69	277	4	11	36%	9%	33	-0.6
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	39→38	47→50	54→55	43	198/273/336	137	281	14	17	33%	8%	69	-0.4	191/270/311	120	270	12	17	32%	8%	62	-0.9	168/253/270	102	226	10	19	29%	8%	41	-1.2
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	35→45	41→40	51→50	42	177/250/275	97	266	9	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	197/270/288	91	301	7	12	34%	8%	55	-1.4	193/271/278	85	293	6	13	33%	8%	49	-1.1
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→50	48→40	39	178/241/285	107	272	11	4	37%	7%	42	-2.3	203/260/325	122	275	13	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→55	54→45	40	191/252/295	104	290	10	12	36%	7%	49	-1.8	204/267/315	111	307	11	9	35%	7%	59	-1.1	156/215/246	90	226	9	0	34%	7%	18	-0.7
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	33→36	41→45	53→55	43	170/253/270	99	234	9	20	30%	7%	44	-2.1	183/267/288	105	279	10	20	36%	8%	55	-1.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	187/250/311	124	262	15	19	34%	7%	53	-1.5	184/265/319	135	258	16	22	34%	8%	62	-0.9	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→38	43→50	55	35	192/249/294	102	300	11	14	38%	5%	47	-1.9	197/249/320	123	286	14	19	35%	5%	54	-1.4	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	56	-1.3	200/251/341	141	277	15	11	32%	5%	61	-1.0	192/239/333	141	232	19	10	27%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Kaden Polcovich 2022 · AA	23	38→41	45	54→55	44	193/273/319	127	275	13	17	33%	8%	65	-0.7	202/283/330	128	276	13	17	30%	8%	72	-0.2	194/281/320	126	262	13	19	29%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Will Wilson 2022 · AA	24	36→38	47→50	51→45	39	189/255/321	133	280	16	8	37%	7%	57	-1.2	201/261/333	132	277	17	6	32%	7%	63	-0.8	194/254/308	114	254	15	4	29%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Brandon Hicks 2010 · AA	24	39→41	46→50	53→50	41	199/264/332	133	288	14	13	34%	7%	63	-0.8	198/259/336	138	292	16	12	36%	7%	63	-0.9	190/254/345	155	277	20	11	38%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Joe Gray Jr. 2023 · A	23	29→33	47→45	55→50	37	160/236/295	134	264	15	14	43%	8%	43	-2.2	171/228/267	96	273	10	13	39%	6%	31	-3.0	165/208/246	82	252	9	14	38%	4%	15	-3.3