Axel Sanchez — OGILVIE

Axel SanchezSS Everett AquaSox

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ HR +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2030

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .241 / .278

PA251

HR5

SB9

K%38

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20↗25

PWR

38↗43

SPD

52↗57

EYE

42↗47

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$-2M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	191	170	33	4	0	1	12	67	6	15	4	.194	.271	.235	.507	.041	.308	35	6	.222	28	-16	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.7
2022	19	A	3 teams	285	260	53	12	3	9	17	99	7	13	3	.204	.271	.377	.648	.173	.288	35	6	.276	69	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2023	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	305	281	38	10	2	5	17	120	7	14	4	.135	.203	.238	.442	.103	.212	39	6	.196	8	-32	+1	+0	+3	+9	-1.9
2024	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	393	359	53	5	2	3	20	155	6	15	9	.148	.205	.198	.403	.050	.240	39	5	.181	-3	-46	-1	+0	+4	+11	-3.2
2025	22	AA	2 teams	162	142	26	7	0	5	14	59	3	3	4	.183	.270	.338	.608	.155	.263	36	9	.265	61	-7	-1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	42	37	9	1	0	2	4	13	1	3	0	.243	.333	.432	.766	.189	.318	31	10	.331	111	+1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.3
ROS	23	MLB	SEA	209	190	34	6	1	4	14	77	3	6	2	.179	.246	.284	.531	.105	.275	37	7	.247	47	-12	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
TOT	23	MLB	SEA	251	227	43	7	1	6	18	90	4	9	2	.189	.261	.308	.569	.119	.280	36	7	.261	58	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	SEA	317	286	56	10	1	8	24	104	4	8	3	.196	.268	.322	.589	.126	.272	33	8	.266	62	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
2028	25	MLB 25%	SEA	375	337	68	12	2	10	30	120	5	10	4	.202	.277	.338	.615	.136	.275	32	8	.273	67	-14	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.1
2029	26	MLB 43%	SEA	413	370	75	13	2	11	34	130	6	11	4	.203	.280	.338	.618	.135	.276	31	8	.278	71	-14	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.3
2030	27	MLB 58%	SEA	428	383	78	14	2	11	36	134	6	11	4	.204	.282	.337	.619	.133	.277	31	8	.279	72	-14	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.4
2031	28	MLB 68%	SEA	434	389	79	14	2	11	36	137	6	10	4	.203	.281	.334	.615	.131	.276	32	8	.278	71	-14	+0	-1	+5	+12	0.2
2032	29	MLB 77%	SEA	430	385	78	14	2	11	36	137	6	9	3	.203	.281	.335	.616	.132	.275	32	8	.276	69	-15	+1	-1	+5	+12	0.1
2033	30	MLB 94%	SEA	425	380	76	13	2	11	36	137	6	8	3	.200	.280	.332	.611	.132	.274	32	8	.273	67	-16	+0	-2	+5	+12	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	SEA	413	370	72	13	1	10	35	135	5	7	2	.195	.273	.316	.589	.122	.272	33	8	.269	64	-17	+1	-3	+4	+12	-0.3
2035	32	MLB	SEA	396	355	68	12	1	9	33	131	5	5	2	.192	.270	.307	.577	.115	.270	33	8	.264	60	-18	+0	-4	+4	+11	-0.6
2036	33	MLB	SEA	367	328	62	11	1	8	31	124	5	4	2	.189	.269	.302	.571	.113	.269	34	8	.259	56	-18	+0	-4	+4	+10	-0.8
2037	34	MLB	SEA	323	289	53	9	1	7	27	112	4	4	1	.183	.263	.294	.557	.111	.267	35	8	.252	51	-18	+0	-5	+3	+9	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5866	5274	1002	179	25	134	452	1978	90	153	58	.190	.265	.310	.575	.120	.272	34	8	.258	56	-293	+7	-20	+63	+166	-7.8
/ 162G	—			650	584	112	20	3	15	50	219	10	17	6	.192	.267	.313	.580	.122	.274	34	8	.258	56	-32	+1	-2	+7	+18	-0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Mariners	191	162	42	7	0	1	20	46	6	15	4	.259	.362	.321	.683	.062	.350	24	10	.315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2022	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	34	34	8	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	.235	.235	.265	.500	.029	.320	26	0	.224	30	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	19	A	Modesto Nuts	152	131	40	13	2	8	15	42	6	4	1	.305	.401	.618	1.020	.313	.395	28	10	.440	195	+16	+0	—	—	+4	2.1
2022	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	99	86	23	5	2	2	11	20	1	9	2	.267	.357	.442	.799	.174	.323	20	11	.352	128	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	305	272	54	15	3	7	26	89	7	14	4	.199	.285	.353	.638	.154	.267	29	9	.289	79	-7	+1	—	—	+9	0.3
2024	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	393	344	68	7	2	5	35	111	6	15	9	.198	.283	.273	.556	.076	.268	28	9	.255	54	-21	-1	—	—	+11	-1.0
2025	22	AA	Arkansas Travelers	114	99	24	5	0	4	12	30	1	3	3	.242	.330	.414	.744	.172	.303	26	11	.328	109	+1	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	22	A+	Everett AquaSox	48	37	4	3	0	1	8	15	2	0	1	.108	.298	.270	.568	.162	.136	31	17	.271	65	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Axel Sanchez (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	38→43	52→57	47	.175/.241/.278	.103	.271	5	6	38%	7%	40	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	40	.184/.244/.291	.107	.270	10	4	35%	7%	44	-2.1	.200/.256/.326	.126	.277	13	4	32%	6%	59	-1.1	.206/.268/.347	.141	.262	15	2	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	44→45	51→55	40	.195/.268/.308	.113	.290	12	13	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.200/.270/.300	.100	.307	9	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	.166/.253/.240	.073	.276	4	11	37%	10%	33	-0.6
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	41	39→45	53→50	39	.193/.262/.274	.080	.300	7	13	36%	7%	48	-1.9	.208/.307/.328	.120	.294	12	12	31%	10%	82	+0.5	.212/.315/.318	.105	.301	9	14	29%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	37	39→40	49→50	44	.183/.260/.264	.081	.271	8	14	33%	9%	45	-2.1	.205/.286/.296	.091	.292	7	13	29%	9%	63	-0.8	.211/.301/.305	.094	.293	5	13	27%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	38	42→50	52→45	40	.189/.250/.291	.102	.286	10	11	36%	7%	46	-2.0	.204/.266/.313	.109	.307	11	9	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.164/.224/.258	.094	.235	10	0	33%	7%	25	-0.6
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	.190/.256/.326	.136	.273	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.205/.269/.352	.147	.297	17	9	35%	6%	72	-0.2	.199/.264/.350	.151	.290	18	7	36%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	36	40→45	52→50	36	.183/.218/.281	.098	.255	7	9	31%	4%	30	-3.1	.212/.258/.297	.085	.293	5	9	28%	6%	50	-1.7	.233/.289/.308	.075	.313	4	8	25%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→29	42→45	48→50	42	.191/.254/.286	.095	.257	11	14	30%	7%	47	-1.9	.192/.267/.310	.118	.259	14	15	30%	8%	59	-1.1	.186/.266/.299	.113	.246	14	14	29%	9%	54	-0.9
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	37	.187/.241/.273	.085	.291	6	9	36%	6%	37	-2.6	.183/.266/.292	.109	.257	11	5	31%	9%	55	-1.4	.165/.258/.271	.106	.227	11	3	31%	10%	44	-1.1
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→32	44→55	47→50	33	.188/.230/.306	.119	.276	12	12	36%	4%	42	-2.3	.190/.235/.310	.120	.293	12	12	38%	5%	45	-2.1	.185/.235/.340	.155	.265	19	12	37%	5%	52	-1.1
✕Juan Uriarte 2021 · A	23	38	41→45	48→30	32	.190/.229/.285	.095	.284	9	6	36%	4%	36	-2.7	.195/.244/.278	.083	.290	6	6	33%	4%	40	-2.4	.151/.199/.200	.049	.234	0	0	33%	2%	-2	-1.2
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	40→30	46→45	50	37	.202/.259/.333	.131	.288	14	12	34%	6%	62	-0.9	.210/.268/.306	.096	.313	9	17	34%	6%	58	-1.2	.216/.274/.290	.074	.331	7	24	35%	6%	53	-1.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→40	44→55	45→50	45	.183/.265/.303	.120	.269	11	7	35%	9%	57	-1.2	.201/.280/.365	.164	.291	19	9	35%	9%	80	+0.4	.191/.263/.361	.170	.260	21	12	35%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	36→46	44→45	51→60	39	.187/.243/.297	.111	.259	12	21	32%	6%	46	-2.0	.218/.284/.349	.131	.292	12	37	28%	7%	76	+0.1	.226/.298/.368	.142	.297	13	49	27%	8%	84	+0.6
✕Yusuf Carter 2008 · A	23	36→34	46→50	48→50	31	.189/.222/.315	.126	.290	15	9	40%	4%	40	-2.4	.213/.254/.357	.144	.303	17	11	34%	5%	66	-0.6	.219/.264/.370	.151	.296	19	10	32%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Carson Blair 2013 · A	23	35	43→50	43→30	38	.178/.239/.287	.110	.282	10	6	39%	7%	41	-2.3	.197/.269/.330	.133	.320	12	4	39%	8%	66	-0.6	.192/.271/.336	.144	.315	14	1	40%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Narciso Crook 2018 · A	23	39→43	43→55	49→50	34	.195/.236/.304	.109	.284	11	10	35%	4%	43	-2.2	.215/.267/.339	.124	.312	11	11	33%	5%	66	-0.6	.199/.278/.357	.158	.302	19	15	38%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Raul Beracierta 2022 · A	23	42	44→50	50	38	.206/.263/.332	.126	.313	11	8	36%	6%	63	-0.9	.226/.273/.356	.130	.336	15	5	35%	5%	73	-0.1	.235/.278/.368	.133	.343	18	1	36%	4%	73	-0.1
✕Joe Donovan 2023 · A	24	35	44→45	51→40	35	.177/.247/.290	.113	.289	12	7	41%	6%	46	-2.0	.195/.252/.305	.110	.307	10	5	38%	5%	52	-1.6	.196/.250/.311	.115	.294	10	0	35%	4%	49	-0.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	43→50	51→45	35	.183/.259/.287	.104	.311	11	11	42%	6%	51	-1.7	.198/.263/.310	.112	.287	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	.185/.242/.280	.095	.261	13	5	33%	5%	38	-1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)