Jamari Baylor
SS Brooklyn Cyclones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+/ACOL | 239 | .267/.412/.466 | 8 | 12 | 76 | — | .194/.311/.323 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+TOR | 130 | .194/.320/.278 | 3 | 6 | 31 | — | .152/.258/.205 |
| 2026 | 25 | AA/A+/ANYM | 237 | .241/.381/.429 | 8 | 13 | 73 | — | .200/.305/.351 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBNYM | 1 | .199/.287/.321 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBNYM | 38 | .200/.288/.322 | 1 | 1 | 78 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 59 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 254 | 232 | 486 | 18 | 414 | 46 | 2 | 227 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 110 | 89 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 303 | 436 | 584 | 1.021 | 281 | 431 | 30 | 16 | 444 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 306 | 241 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 100 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 178 | 353 | 315 | 668 | 137 | 274 | 33 | 17 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 100 | 83 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 181 | 320 | 277 | 597 | 96 | 311 | 37 | 15 | 285 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 139 | 108 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 37 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 333 | 478 | 611 | 1.089 | 278 | 446 | 27 | 17 | 470 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 130 | 108 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 320 | 278 | 598 | 83 | 269 | 31 | 11 | 282 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 56 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 345 | 348 | 693 | 130 | 290 | 27 | 12 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 118 | 90 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 256 | 424 | 422 | 846 | 167 | 317 | 20 | 19 | 386 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 63 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 333 | 509 | 842 | 273 | 290 | 32 | 10 | 369 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 59 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 186 | 161 | 347 | 18 | 374 | 63 | 2 | 141 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 110 | 96 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 188 | 291 | 354 | 645 | 167 | 324 | 44 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 306 | 257 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 136 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 125 | 265 | 218 | 483 | 93 | 231 | 44 | 12 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 100 | 88 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 136 | 240 | 216 | 456 | 80 | 284 | 51 | 10 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 139 | 115 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 51 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 235 | 362 | 400 | 762 | 165 | 372 | 37 | 12 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 130 | 112 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 152 | 258 | 205 | 463 | 54 | 243 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 56 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 309 | 333 | 642 | 125 | 272 | 32 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 118 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 210 | 331 | 350 | 681 | 140 | 273 | 26 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 63 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 254 | 368 | 622 | 193 | 241 | 43 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 169 | 152 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 85 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 171 | 254 | 283 | 537 | 112 | 359 | 50 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 169 | 145 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 60 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 269 | 373 | 448 | 821 | 179 | 425 | 36 | 11 | 368 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 306 | 257 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 136 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 125 | 265 | 218 | 483 | 93 | 239 | 44 | 12 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 306 | 241 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 100 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 178 | 353 | 315 | 668 | 137 | 274 | 33 | 17 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 203 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 102 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 192 | 311 | 320 | 631 | 128 | 351 | 43 | 11 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 239 | 191 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 74 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 267 | 412 | 466 | 878 | 199 | 391 | 31 | 16 | 393 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 130 | 112 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 152 | 258 | 205 | 463 | 54 | 263 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Vancouver Canadians | — | 130 | 108 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 320 | 278 | 598 | 83 | 269 | 31 | 11 | 282 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 237 | 205 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 77 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 190 | 297 | 327 | 623 | 137 | 268 | 32 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 237 | 191 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 59 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 241 | 381 | 429 | 811 | 188 | 304 | 25 | 15 | 365 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 169 | 150 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 85 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 173 | 254 | 287 | 541 | 113 | 341 | 50 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 306 | 254 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 136 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 126 | 265 | 220 | 485 | 94 | 231 | 44 | 12 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 202 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 102 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 193 | 311 | 322 | 633 | 129 | 335 | 43 | 11 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 130 | 113 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 150 | 258 | 204 | 461 | 53 | 243 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 237 | 204 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 77 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 191 | 297 | 328 | 625 | 137 | 264 | 32 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 130 | 113 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 150 | 258 | 204 | 461 | 53 | 243 | 42 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 237 | 204 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 77 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 191 | 297 | 328 | 625 | 137 | 264 | 32 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 0% | 287 | 254 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 79 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 205 | 292 | 329 | 622 | 124 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 283 | 77 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 287 | 321 | 608 | 121 | 259 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 77 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYM | 26% | 144 | 127 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 293 | 331 | 624 | 124 | 269 | 27 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYM | 26% | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 288 | 322 | 610 | 122 | 260 | 26 | 8 | 278 | 78 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 324 | 613 | 118 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 278 | 59 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 120 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 51 | 171 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 323 | 612 | 117 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 278 | 59 | -17 | +3 | +0 | +7 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1346 | 1163 | 203 | 38 | 8 | 26 | 131 | 527 | 46 | 71 | 21 | 175 | 284 | 288 | 572 | 113 | 287 | 39 | 10 | 256 | 59 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 562 | 98 | 18 | 4 | 13 | 63 | 254 | 22 | 34 | 10 | 174 | 283 | 290 | 573 | 116 | 285 | 39 | 10 | 256 | 59 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 118 PAwOBA .378 → .296 (−81)K% 20.3% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.34% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 10.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.24% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 3.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 20.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 3.87% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .378 → .296; ISO .167 → .148; BABIP .317 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 63 PAwOBA .359 → .250 (−109)K% 31.7% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 2.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 15.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 8.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .250; ISO .273 → .183; BABIP .290 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 56 PAwOBA .314 → .265 (−48)K% 26.8% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 21.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 3.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.49% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .314 → .265; ISO .130 → .110; BABIP .290 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Vancouver Canadians · 130 PAwOBA .280 → .214 (−66)K% 30.8% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.980 | ×1.350 | — | — | 42.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.62% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 3.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷0.964 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 24.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.41% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 3.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 93, 2B 114, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .280 → .214; ISO .083 → .057; BABIP .269 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 139 PAwOBA .462 → .341 (−121)K% 26.6% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.62% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 12.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.32% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 3.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.17% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×0.990 | 24.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.68% | ÷0.946 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×0.990 | 10.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.910 | ×0.956 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.86% | ÷1.186 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .462 → .341; ISO .278 → .185; BABIP .446 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Spokane Indians · 100 PAwOBA .279 → .198 (−81)K% 37.0% → 50.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.00% | ÷0.983 | ×1.350 | — | — | 50.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .279 → .198; ISO .096 → .067; BABIP .311 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AClearwater Threshers · 306 PAwOBA .311 → .225 (−87)K% 32.7% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.25% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | — | 14.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | — | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | — | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .311 → .225; ISO .137 → .097; BABIP .274 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Phillies · 110 PAwOBA .432 → .284 (−148)K% 30.0% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 9.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 10.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 6.86% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .432 → .284; ISO .281 → .184; BABIP .431 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).