Justin Campbell — OGILVIE

Justin Campbell P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 227 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%24.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF—55

CTRL—55

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	19	19	64	262	79	32	1	100%	3.4	24.2%	13.1%	11.0%	0.5%	2.52	2.97	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	19	19	64	262	79	32	1	100%	3.4	24.2%	13.1%	11.0%	0.5%	2.52	2.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CLE	6	6	15	59	22	5	0	100%	2.5	37.3%	8.5%	28.8%	0.0%	2.40	1.02	—
2026	25	AA RAW	CLE	9	9	37	152	44	22	1	100%	4.1	28.9%	14.5%	14.5%	0.7%	2.70	2.85	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CLE	4	4	13	51	13	5	0	100%	3.2	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	0.0%	2.13	2.19	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	75	317	78	34	9	100%	6.2	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.33	4.32	+0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	74	312	77	33	9	100%	6.2	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	72	303	74	32	9	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.44	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	68	289	70	31	9	100%	6.2	24.1%	10.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	272	65	30	9	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.75	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	33	139	34	15	4	100%	5.5	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.33	4.32	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	47	198	49	21	6	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.6%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	54	228	56	24	7	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.44	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	56	236	57	26	8	100%	6.2	24.1%	10.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	55	232	55	26	8	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.75	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	245	1035	251	112	32	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.12	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	205	91	26	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		19	19	64	262	63	34	1	100%	3.4	24.2%	13.1%	11.0%	0.5%	2.52	2.97	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	59	200	815	197	107	4	100%	3.4	24.2%	13.1%	11.0%	0.5%	2.52	2.97	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Campbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	24.6%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.37	24.6%	13.9%	221	+0.03	—	—	—
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	82
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	79
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	77
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	75
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	73
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	73
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	72
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	72
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	72
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	71
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	69
Spencer Howard R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	25	SP	3.76	24.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.311	4.85	23.7%	14.8%	208	+1.09	2.33	484	69
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	69
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	69
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	69
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	65	24.4%	10.8%	1.18	4.43
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19