Justin Campbell

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 227 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#902ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX3 levels	20	20	69	2.48	2.51	29.6%	11.8%	—	K 24.0% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.12
2027PROJ	26	MLBCLE	1	1	4	4.27	4.27	24.3%	11.9%	0.1
2028PROJ40% MLB	27	MLBCLE	4	4	26	4.30	4.32	24.2%	11.7%	0.3
2029PROJ61% MLB	28	MLBCLE	6	6	36	4.36	4.40	24.0%	11.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 5.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsBrody McCullough (age 23) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Peter Van Loon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%24.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	69	280	83	33	2	100%	3.5	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	69	280	83	33	2	100%	3.5	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	69	280	83	33	2	100%	3.5	29.6%	11.8%	17.9%	0.7%	2.48	2.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	2.4%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	64	271	65	32	7	100%	5.8	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	2.5%	4.30	4.32	+0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	59	250	60	29	7	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.40	+0.7
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	9	9	54	230	55	27	7	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.53	+0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	4	4	26	110	27	13	3	100%	6.5	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	2.5%	4.30	4.32	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	36	152	36	18	4	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	2.7%	4.36	4.40	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	39	165	39	19	5	100%	6.5	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.46	4.53	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	101	426	102	50	12	100%	5.9	23.9%	11.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.04	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	202	99	24	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.38	4.04	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		20	20	69	280	67	35	2	100%	3.5	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	58	200	812	195	102	7	100%	3.4	24.0%	12.6%	11.4%	0.8%	2.48	3.12	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 37 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.57 (+0.72)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.810	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.47%	—	×1.100	15.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.66%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 17 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.18 (+0.26)K% 24.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.860	21.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 15 IPFIP 1.02 → 1.91 (+0.89)K% 37.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.29%	—	×0.770	28.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.150	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.02 → 1.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Campbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.41	24.0%	12.3%	178	+0.14	—	—	—
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	81
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	78
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	77
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	74
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	73
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	73
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	73
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	73
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	73
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	73
Jimmy Lambert R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	25.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.276	5.13	20.8%	10.0%	114	+0.43	3.43	526	73
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	72
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	72
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	72
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	71
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	71
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	71
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	71
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	62	24.1%	11.7%	1.01	4.34
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*