Justin Campbell
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 25
RHP
6'5" / 227 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 48 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114104vR 95
ERA4.15
FIP4.15
K%25.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%15.7%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 15 | 15 | 52 | 211 | 66 | 27 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 0.6% | 2.61 | 3.11 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 48 | 204 | 51 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 100 | 415 | 117 | 46 | 7 | — | — | 28.3% | 11.2% | 17.1% | 1.7% | 3.36 | 3.61 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 25.2% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.76 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 59 | 251 | 63 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 10 | 58 | 243 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 9 | 9 | 52 | 218 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 48 | 204 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 43 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 40 | 241 | 1016 | 250 | 100 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.04 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 208 | 83 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 52 | 211 | 53 | 30 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 0.6% | 2.61 | 3.11 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 58 | 200 | 817 | 204 | 116 | 5 | 100% | 3.4 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 0.6% | 2.61 | 3.11 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Campbell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 25.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.20 | 25.1% | 15.6% | 177 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 85 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 81 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 81 |
| Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.14 | 25.5% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .303 | 4.30 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 53 | +1.16 | 2.47 | 256 | 78 |
| Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 138 | 73 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 73 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 71 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 71 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 70 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.34 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .280 | 2.13 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 36 | -1.21 | 2.13 | 218 | 70 |
| Mitch White R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.58 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.3% | .309 | 3.59 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 194 | -0.99 | 2.49 | 626 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .283 | 4.15 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 79 | -0.49 | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| Spencer Howard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.82 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.90 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 208 | +1.08 | 2.29 | 484 | 69 |
| Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 182 | 69 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 69 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 69 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .290 | 5.09 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 58 | +0.63 | 3.39 | 236 | 69 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 68 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.45 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 3.6% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 149 | 68 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.82 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.49 | 21.3% | 15.0% | 78 | -0.33 | 3.49 | 364 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 54 | 24.7% | 9.7% | 1.22 | 4.31 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |