Adan Vallenilla

P DSL Mariners

Age 21 RHP ROK peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	ROKSEA	11	11	39	3.23	2.00	32.5%	7.0%	—	K 22.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.32
2027PROJ	21	MLBSEA	4	4	23	4.29	4.29	22.9%	8.9%	0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSEA	3	3	18	4.19	4.12	23.8%	8.4%	0.2

Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsAndrew Hoffmann (age 21) · Jimmy Joyce (age 22) · Carmen Mlodzinski (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%22.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	39	157	51	11	2	100%	3.5	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	1.8%	3.23	3.32	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	11	39	157	51	11	2	100%	3.5	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	1.8%	3.23	3.32	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	11	39	157	51	11	2	100%	3.5	32.5%	7.0%	25.5%	1.3%	3.23	2.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	4	4	23	97	22	9	3	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	37	156	37	13	5	100%	5.3	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	3	3	18	76	18	6	2	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	18	6	2	100%	4.5	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	3.74	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	198	66	22	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		11	11	39	157	35	14	3	100%	3.5	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	1.8%	3.23	3.32	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	56	200	805	178	71	14	100%	3.5	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	1.8%	3.23	3.32	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adan Vallenilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	22.9%	8.9%	2.9%	—	4.12	23.8%	15.4%	37	-0.17	—	—	—
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.89	18.9%	9.1%	311	+1.72	3.17	422	86
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	82
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	82
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.79	18.2%	7.5%	333	+1.50	3.29	353	82
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	81
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	81
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	81
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	81
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	80
Regi Grace R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	21	SP	4.76	19.6%	10.7%	3.5%	.227	3.99	19.6%	8.5%	173	-0.77	3.44	224	80
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	80
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	78
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	78
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	78
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	78
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	23.5%	8.6%	1.13	4.23
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*