Matias Palacio

SS DSL Rays

Age 18 L/R ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKTB	212	.239/.418/.340	1	12	53	—	.163/.308/.227
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBTB	322	.229/.313/.316	2	7	81	0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLBTB	114	.235/.320/.330	1	3	86	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLBTB	235	.238/.324/.340	3	5	90	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%83

BB%73

Whiff%71

Chase%68

Speed63

wRC+62

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCarlos Sanchez (age 18) · Rubén Tejada (age 18) · Hendry Mendez (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 181 proj PA

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .311 / .313

PA181

HR1

K%23

BB%9

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$69M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 64 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT64

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE71

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$15M		$32M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	212	159	38	9	2	1	40	31	9	12	3	239	418	340	758	101	287	15	19	353	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	212	172	28	6	1	1	27	38	9	12	3	163	308	227	534	64	190	18	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	212	172	28	6	1	1	27	38	9	12	3	163	308	227	534	64	200	18	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	212	159	38	9	2	1	40	31	9	12	3	239	418	340	758	101	287	15	19	353	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	212	174	28	6	1	1	27	38	9	12	3	161	308	224	532	63	190	18	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	212	174	28	6	1	1	27	38	9	12	3	161	308	224	532	63	190	18	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	TB	0%	322	284	65	12	3	2	30	75	5	7	1	229	313	316	629	88	299	23	9	288	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	TB	43%	263	232	54	10	2	3	24	61	5	6	2	232	318	328	646	96	300	23	9	295	86	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2029	20	MLB MLE	TB	61%	386	340	79	14	3	5	36	88	7	9	3	235	321	339	660	103	301	23	9	301	90	-5	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2030	21	MLB MLE	TB	68%	479	423	100	18	4	7	44	109	9	11	4	238	324	347	671	110	302	23	9	305	92	-4	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.2
2031	22	MLB MLE	TB	71%	544	479	115	21	5	8	50	123	10	13	4	240	325	355	680	115	302	23	9	308	95	-4	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.5
2032	23	MLB MLE	TB	72%	588	518	126	23	5	10	54	132	11	14	4	241	326	360	687	119	303	22	9	310	96	-3	+1	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	TB	72%	615	542	131	24	5	10	57	138	11	15	5	242	327	363	690	121	303	22	9	312	97	-2	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.9
2034	25	MLB MLE	TB	71%	627	552	134	24	5	11	58	141	12	15	5	243	327	364	691	122	304	22	9	312	98	-2	+1	+0	+7	+14	2.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	TB	71%	634	558	136	25	5	11	59	142	12	15	5	243	327	364	692	122	303	22	9	313	98	-2	+1	+0	+7	+14	2.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	TB	70%	634	559	134	24	5	11	59	143	11	14	5	242	326	362	688	120	303	23	9	311	97	-2	+1	+0	+7	+14	1.9
2037	28	MLB MLE	TB	69%	629	555	133	24	5	10	58	143	11	13	5	240	325	357	682	118	302	23	9	309	95	-4	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.7
2038	29	MLB MLE	TB	67%	619	546	130	23	5	10	57	143	11	12	5	238	322	352	674	114	301	23	9	305	93	-5	+0	-1	+7	+13	1.4
2039	30	MLB MLE	TB	66%	609	538	127	23	5	9	56	143	10	12	5	235	319	344	663	109	300	23	9	301	90	-7	+0	-2	+7	+13	1.1
2040	31	MLB MLE	TB	65%	595	526	121	22	4	8	54	142	10	10	6	231	314	335	649	104	298	24	9	295	86	-10	-0	-3	+6	+13	0.6
2041	32	MLB MLE	TB	65%	576	511	115	20	4	7	51	140	9	9	9	226	308	323	631	97	294	24	9	288	81	-13	-2	-4	+6	+12	0.0
2042	33	MLB MLE	TB	70%	546	485	107	18	4	6	48	136	8	8	13	220	301	309	610	89	290	25	9	280	75	-16	-4	-4	+6	+12	-0.6
2028	19	MLB CTX	TB	43%	114	100	23	4	1	1	11	26	2	3	1	235	320	330	650	95	304	23	10	297	86	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	TB	61%	235	207	50	9	2	3	22	54	4	5	2	238	324	340	664	102	305	23	9	302	90	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2030	21	MLB CTX	TB	68%	326	287	68	12	3	4	30	74	6	8	2	240	326	349	675	108	306	23	9	306	92	-3	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.9
2031	22	MLB CTX	TB	71%	387	341	83	15	3	6	36	87	7	9	3	242	327	356	683	114	306	22	9	309	95	-2	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.1
2032	23	MLB CTX	TB	72%	425	375	92	16	4	7	39	96	8	10	3	244	328	361	690	118	306	23	9	312	96	-2	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	TB	72%	440	388	95	17	4	7	41	99	8	10	3	245	329	364	693	119	307	22	9	313	97	-1	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2034	25	MLB CTX	TB	71%	446	394	96	17	4	7	41	100	8	10	3	245	330	365	694	120	307	22	9	314	98	-1	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2035	26	MLB CTX	TB	71%	450	397	98	17	4	8	42	101	8	10	3	245	329	365	695	120	307	22	9	314	98	-1	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2036	27	MLB CTX	TB	70%	441	389	95	17	4	7	41	100	8	10	3	244	329	363	691	119	307	23	9	313	97	-2	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.4
2037	28	MLB CTX	TB	69%	433	382	93	16	4	7	40	99	8	9	3	242	327	358	685	116	306	23	9	310	95	-3	+1	-0	+5	+9	1.2
2038	29	MLB CTX	TB	67%	414	366	87	15	3	6	38	96	7	8	3	240	324	352	677	112	305	23	9	307	93	-4	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.9
2039	30	MLB CTX	TB	66%	401	354	85	15	3	6	37	94	7	8	3	237	321	345	666	108	304	23	9	303	90	-5	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	TB	65%	388	344	80	14	3	5	35	92	6	6	4	233	316	336	652	102	301	24	9	297	86	-6	-0	-2	+4	+8	0.4
2041	32	MLB CTX	TB	65%	373	331	76	13	3	4	33	90	6	6	6	229	311	324	635	96	298	24	9	290	81	-8	-1	-2	+4	+8	0.0
2042	33	MLB CTX	TB	70%	383	340	76	12	3	4	34	95	6	5	9	223	304	310	614	88	294	25	9	281	75	-11	-3	-3	+4	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5656	4995	1197	209	48	82	520	1303	99	117	51	240	323	350	673	110	306	23	9	305	90	-55	+3	-10	+61	+123	12.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	138	24	6	9	60	150	11	13	6	240	324	350	674	110	309	23	9	305	90	-6	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	8737	7695	1807	326	69	128	809	2004	159	192	84	235	320	345	665	110	299	23	9	302	90	-87	+4	-15	+91	+185	18.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	135	24	5	10	60	149	12	14	6	236	321	348	669	112	300	23	9	302	90	-7	+0	-1	+7	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Billy Rogell'25-'40 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,919 PA	8.9	5,919	42	82	240*	319*	369*	+58	+47	16.9	19.4
/162	664	5	9	+6.5	+5.3	1.9	pk7: 22
#3Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#4Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	8.8	5,837	86	123	238	318	349	+63	+33	16.7	13.9
/162	664	10	14	+7.1	+3.8	1.9	pk7: 11
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matias Palacio (OGILVIE)	18	59→64	30→35	53→58	71	226/311/313	87	299	1	4	23%	9%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	50→57	39→45	51→45	51	234/299/332	97	275	5	7	16%	8%	80	-0.2	227/296/304	77	285	5	5	20%	9%	73	-0.6	262/336/372	110	313	10	6	18%	9%	101	+1.0
●Josue De Paula 2024 · A	19	52→54	38→50	51→55	52	242/326/327	85	316	5	14	23%	10%	89	+0.5	236/331/360	124	307	12	20	25%	12%	99	+1.3	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	51→57	37→45	50	49	238/302/314	76	308	3	13	23%	8%	76	-0.4	254/322/351	97	304	8	13	18%	9%	93	+0.8	261/352/384	123	304	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.4
✕Cristofer Torin 2023 · A	18	47→55	35→40	53→50	61	215/316/281	66	255	2	19	15%	12%	76	-0.4	225/306/299	74	281	5	14	20%	10%	76	-0.4	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Kendall George 2024 · A	19	55→60	36→30	52→65	48	253/320/322	69	342	3	22	25%	8%	85	+0.2	249/328/307	58	343	2	42	25%	10%	85	+0.2	262/344/315	53	355	2	56	24%	11%	90	+0.4
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	45→55	37→40	53→55	62	208/315/286	78	255	3	15	18%	13%	77	-0.3	227/325/310	83	318	4	21	26%	12%	85	+0.2	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
●Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	51→57	38→50	51→50	45	241/287/329	88	302	4	10	21%	6%	74	-0.6	251/307/379	128	337	10	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	255/313/401	146	322	13	11	24%	7%	98	+1.0
✕Nelson Rada 2023 · A	17	47→57	37→30	56→60	50	219/307/303	84	268	3	23	18%	8%	78	-0.3	238/321/298	60	329	2	31	25%	9%	81	-0.1	255/332/312	57	351	2	38	25%	9%	85	+0.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	43→53	38→50	50→40	55	201/288/280	79	244	5	8	19%	10%	65	-1.2	227/293/354	127	281	14	4	23%	8%	84	+0.1	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Cedric Hunter 2007 · A	19	55→59	37→55	53→50	55	258/327/338	80	300	3	14	14%	9%	92	+0.7	256/298/341	85	294	6	8	14%	5%	81	-0.1	246/303/399	153	268	15	9	14%	6%	96	+0.7

Matias Palacio

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps