Luis Dias

C DSL Orioles Black

Age 17 R/R ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	16	ROKDSL Orioles B…	188	.257/.422/.438	4	19	55	—	.153/.281/.248
2027PROJ0% MLB	17	MLBBAL	298	.224/.304/.323	3	9	79	0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	18	MLBBAL	106	.231/.309/.340	1	3	82	0.3
2029PROJ61% MLB	19	MLBBAL	229	.235/.314/.352	3	8	87	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%86

BB%81

Speed80

ISO78

Whiff%77

wOBA71

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEduardo Quintero (age 18) · Joendry Vargas (age 18) · Eguy Rosario (age 17)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 158 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .301 / .320

PA158

HR2

SB5

K%23

BB%9

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$86M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.6	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-2	$8M	+1.5	$6M	+$3M
2038	Arb-3	$11M	+1.4	$5M	+$1M
Totals		$28M		$40M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	16	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	188	144	37	12	1	4	38	26	3	19	3	257	422	438	859	181	282	14	20	384	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	188	157	24	7	1	2	25	32	3	19	3	153	281	248	529	96	171	17	13	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	188	157	24	7	1	2	25	32	3	19	3	153	281	248	529	96	175	17	13	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	16	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	188	144	37	12	1	4	38	26	3	19	3	257	422	438	859	181	282	14	20	384	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	188	158	24	7	1	2	25	32	3	19	3	152	281	247	528	95	171	17	13	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	188	158	24	7	1	2	25	32	3	19	3	152	281	247	528	95	171	17	13	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	17	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	298	266	60	13	2	3	27	67	3	9	1	224	304	323	627	99	286	22	9	285	79	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	18	MLB MLE	BAL	43%	246	220	50	11	2	3	22	55	2	8	1	227	306	333	639	106	287	22	9	290	82	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2029	19	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	377	336	77	16	3	5	34	84	4	13	2	231	311	345	656	114	289	22	9	297	87	-6	+2	+0	+7	+8	1.1
2030	20	MLB MLE	BAL	68%	478	425	100	21	4	8	44	106	6	16	3	234	315	355	670	121	291	22	9	302	91	-5	+2	+0	+9	+10	1.6
2031	21	MLB MLE	BAL	71%	520	460	109	22	4	10	48	115	7	17	4	237	318	364	681	127	292	22	9	307	94	-4	+2	+0	+9	+11	1.9
2032	22	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	520	460	110	22	4	10	48	114	7	17	4	239	320	371	691	132	293	22	9	311	96	-2	+2	+0	+9	+11	2.0
2033	23	MLB MLE	BAL	73%	520	460	112	23	4	11	48	114	7	17	4	240	321	376	697	135	294	22	9	313	98	-1	+2	+0	+9	+11	2.1
2034	24	MLB MLE	BAL	72%	520	460	112	23	4	11	48	114	7	17	4	242	322	379	701	137	295	22	9	315	99	-1	+2	+0	+9	+11	2.2
2035	25	MLB MLE	BAL	71%	520	460	112	23	4	11	48	114	7	17	4	242	323	381	704	139	295	22	9	316	100	-0	+2	+0	+9	+11	2.3
2036	26	MLB MLE	BAL	71%	520	460	113	23	4	12	48	114	7	17	4	242	323	383	706	140	295	22	9	316	100	+0	+2	+0	+9	+11	2.3
2037	27	MLB MLE	BAL	70%	520	460	111	22	4	11	48	114	7	17	4	241	322	380	702	139	294	22	9	315	99	-1	+2	+0	+9	+11	2.2
2038	28	MLB MLE	BAL	69%	520	461	110	22	4	11	48	116	6	16	4	239	320	375	695	136	293	22	9	312	97	-2	+2	-1	+9	+11	2.0
2039	29	MLB MLE	BAL	67%	520	461	109	22	3	11	48	117	6	16	4	237	317	369	686	132	292	22	9	308	95	-3	+2	-1	+9	+11	1.8
2040	30	MLB MLE	BAL	66%	520	462	108	22	3	10	47	119	6	16	4	234	313	361	674	127	290	23	9	304	92	-5	+2	-2	+9	+11	1.5
2041	31	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	504	448	103	21	3	9	45	117	6	15	5	229	308	351	659	121	287	23	9	297	87	-8	+1	-3	+9	+11	1.1
2042	32	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	489	437	97	19	3	8	44	116	5	14	5	224	302	338	640	114	282	24	9	290	82	-10	+1	-4	+9	+11	0.6
2043	33	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	473	424	92	18	3	7	41	115	5	13	6	217	294	323	617	106	277	24	9	280	76	-14	+0	-4	+8	+10	0.1
2044	34	MLB MLE	BAL	60%	439	394	82	15	2	6	38	110	4	12	8	209	284	304	589	96	270	25	9	269	68	-17	-1	-5	+8	+10	-0.5
2028	18	MLB CTX	BAL	43%	106	94	22	5	1	1	10	24	1	3	0	231	309	340	649	109	291	23	9	294	82	-2	+1	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2029	19	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	229	203	47	10	2	3	21	51	3	8	1	235	314	352	666	117	294	22	9	301	87	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2030	20	MLB CTX	BAL	68%	326	289	68	14	2	6	30	72	4	11	2	238	318	363	681	125	295	22	9	307	91	-4	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.1
2031	21	MLB CTX	BAL	71%	370	328	79	16	3	7	34	82	5	12	3	241	321	372	693	131	296	22	9	311	94	-3	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.3
2032	22	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	376	333	82	17	3	8	35	83	5	13	3	243	323	380	703	137	297	22	9	315	96	-2	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.5
2033	23	MLB CTX	BAL	73%	379	336	82	17	3	8	35	83	5	13	3	244	325	384	709	140	298	22	9	317	98	-1	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.6
2034	24	MLB CTX	BAL	72%	373	331	82	17	3	8	34	82	5	12	3	246	326	388	714	142	299	22	9	319	99	-0	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.6
2035	25	MLB CTX	BAL	71%	371	329	81	17	3	8	34	81	5	12	3	246	326	390	717	144	299	22	9	321	100	-0	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.6
2036	26	MLB CTX	BAL	71%	369	327	81	16	3	9	34	81	5	12	3	246	326	392	718	145	299	22	9	321	100	+0	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.6
2037	27	MLB CTX	BAL	70%	362	320	79	16	3	8	34	80	5	12	3	245	325	389	714	144	298	22	9	320	99	-0	+1	+0	+6	+8	1.5
2038	28	MLB CTX	BAL	69%	358	318	77	16	2	8	33	80	4	11	3	243	323	384	707	141	297	22	9	317	97	-1	+1	-0	+6	+8	1.4
2039	29	MLB CTX	BAL	67%	348	309	73	15	2	7	32	78	4	11	3	241	320	377	698	137	296	22	9	313	95	-2	+1	-1	+6	+8	1.2
2040	30	MLB CTX	BAL	66%	342	304	72	15	2	7	31	78	4	10	3	237	317	369	686	132	294	23	9	308	92	-3	+1	-1	+6	+7	1.0
2041	31	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	329	292	68	14	2	6	30	76	4	10	3	233	312	359	670	126	291	23	9	302	87	-5	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.7
2042	32	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	317	283	65	13	2	6	28	75	3	9	3	227	305	345	650	118	287	24	9	294	82	-7	+1	-2	+6	+7	0.4
2043	33	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	306	273	61	12	2	5	27	74	3	8	4	220	297	329	627	109	281	24	9	284	76	-9	+0	-3	+5	+7	0.1
2044	34	MLB CTX	BAL	60%	264	236	50	9	1	4	23	66	3	7	5	212	287	311	598	99	274	25	9	272	68	-10	-1	-3	+5	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5525	4905	1169	239	39	109	505	1246	68	174	48	238	318	370	688	131	296	23	9	309	90	-53	+16	-13	+99	+120	17.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	138	28	5	13	59	147	8	20	6	239	318	373	691	133	297	23	9	309	90	-6	+2	-1	+12	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	8552	7586	1763	359	60	158	786	1922	104	282	74	232	313	358	671	126	289	22	9	302	90	-87	+24	-20	+149	+181	25.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	134	27	5	12	60	146	8	21	6	232	314	359	672	127	288	22	9	302	90	-7	+2	-2	+12	+14	2.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Roseboro'57-'70 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,527 PA	8.3	5,527	104	67	247*	328*	393*	+97	-2	24.9	22.0
/162	664	12	8	+11.7	-0.2	3.0	pk7: 19
#2Ray Schalk'12-'29 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	11	177	238*	322*	355*	+111	+0	22.1	19.8
/162	664	1	19	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 18
#3Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	8.6	5,682	107	180	235	311	362	+101	+48	21.9	17.3
/162	664	13	21	+11.9	+5.6	2.6	pk7: 13
#4John Stearns'74-'84 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,082 PA	4.6	3,082	46	91	253*	337*	403*	+46	+0	16.5	16.5
/162	664	10	20	+9.8	+0.1	3.6	pk7: 16
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#6Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Dias (OGILVIE)	17	—	—	—	—	222/301/320	98	286	2	5	23%	9%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Eguy Rosario 2017 · A	17	52→54	37→55	49→55	45	244/302/330	86	319	3	17	23%	6%	80	-0.1	210/263/304	94	299	6	15	30%	6%	60	-1.6	240/303/388	148	312	14	21	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Axiel Plaz 2023 · A	17	48→51	42→50	51→40	49	225/310/341	116	302	7	7	26%	9%	87	+0.4	180/268/296	116	277	12	3	37%	8%	62	-1.4	209/276/363	155	262	21	2	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Ricky Cabrera 2024 · A	19	48→44	40→45	57→60	43	224/310/324	99	311	7	18	28%	7%	84	+0.1	216/282/315	99	309	8	12	31%	6%	71	-0.8	213/277/319	106	299	10	14	30%	5%	67	-0.8
●Elvis Andrus 2006 · A	17	48→58	39→50	47→60	47	231/294/314	84	293	7	9	23%	7%	74	-0.5	241/292/319	78	321	4	22	25%	6%	74	-0.6	276/328/411	135	308	11	19	14%	7%	107	+1.7
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	47→54	40→50	50→55	54	224/305/318	94	270	6	14	19%	10%	80	-0.2	233/325/328	95	314	7	17	25%	11%	90	+0.6	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	46→51	41→60	55→50	47	222/293/320	98	273	8	16	21%	7%	76	-0.4	223/272/331	108	291	10	16	26%	6%	70	-0.9	262/323/475	213	304	29	14	24%	8%	123	+1.4
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Cristofer Torin 2023 · A	18	47→55	35→40	53→50	61	215/316/281	66	255	2	19	15%	12%	76	-0.4	225/306/299	74	281	5	14	20%	10%	76	-0.4	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→39	41→50	55	45	232/308/333	101	332	7	18	30%	8%	84	+0.2	200/335/326	126	277	12	20	29%	12%	95	+1.0	200/355/358	159	246	17	19	24%	12%	108	+1.1

Luis Dias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps