Lucas Takahashi

CF DSL Cardinals

Age 19 L/L 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKSTL	48	.103/.447/.103	0	2	43	—	.059/.319/.059
2026	18	ROKSTL	163	.264/.521/.321	0	3	90	—	.180/.387/.205
2027PROJ0% MLB	19	MLBSTL	273	.206/.318/.275	2	7	75	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBSTL	76	.212/.323/.291	1	2	80	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBSTL	169	.216/.325/.305	2	5	84	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%99

Chase%99

wOBA92

wRC+90

Speed71

K%62

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKevyn Castillo (age 19) · Hector Osorio (age 19) · Abrahan Ramirez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .316 / .272

PA136

HR1

K%26

BB%13

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$25M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	163	106	28	2	2	0	55	31	2	3	0	264	521	321	842	57	373	19	34	413	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	34	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	59	319	59	378		103	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	122	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	180	387	205	591	25	264	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	34	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	59	319	59	378		91	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	48	29	3	0	0	0	17	10	1	2	1	103	447	103	550		150	21	35	319	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	122	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	180	387	205	591	25	262	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	163	106	28	2	2	0	55	31	2	3	0	264	521	321	842	57	373	19	34	413	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	35	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	57	319	57	376		103	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	121	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	182	387	207	593	25	264	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	48	35	2	0	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	57	319	57	376		103	27	25	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	163	121	22	1	1	0	39	38	2	3	0	182	387	207	593	25	264	23	24	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	0%	273	232	48	6	2	2	36	72	3	7	2	206	318	275	593	68	288	26	13	279	75	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	34%	221	189	40	5	2	2	28	58	2	6	2	212	322	292	614	80	290	26	13	287	80	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	48%	349	298	65	9	3	4	44	90	4	10	3	216	325	306	631	90	291	26	13	293	84	-6	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	54%	441	378	84	12	4	6	55	112	5	13	4	220	327	319	646	99	292	25	12	298	88	-6	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	57%	502	429	96	14	4	8	62	127	6	15	5	223	328	330	658	107	293	25	12	302	91	-6	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.8
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	542	465	105	15	4	10	66	136	6	16	5	226	329	339	668	113	294	25	12	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	565	485	110	16	4	11	69	141	6	17	6	227	330	342	673	116	294	25	12	307	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	56%	577	496	112	16	4	11	70	144	6	17	6	227	331	345	676	118	294	25	12	308	95	-3	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	580	498	112	16	4	11	71	146	6	17	6	226	330	342	672	116	293	25	12	307	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+13	1.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	59%	578	497	112	16	4	11	70	147	6	17	6	224	328	338	666	114	293	25	12	305	92	-5	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	61%	569	489	108	15	4	10	69	146	6	16	6	222	325	332	657	110	291	26	12	301	90	-7	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.7
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	62%	559	481	105	15	4	9	67	145	6	16	7	219	322	324	646	105	290	26	12	297	87	-9	+0	-2	+2	+12	0.4
2039	31	MLB MLE	STL	63%	546	471	101	14	4	8	65	144	5	14	8	215	317	314	631	99	287	26	12	291	83	-11	-0	-3	+2	+12	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	34%	76	65	15	2	1	1	10	20	1	2	1	212	323	291	614	79	291	26	13	287	80	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	48%	169	144	31	4	1	2	21	43	2	5	2	216	325	305	630	89	292	25	12	293	84	-3	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	54%	239	204	45	7	2	3	30	61	3	7	2	220	327	317	644	97	293	26	13	298	88	-3	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	57%	284	244	54	8	2	4	35	72	3	9	3	223	329	327	656	104	294	25	12	301	91	-3	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	306	263	59	9	2	5	37	77	3	9	3	226	329	336	665	110	295	25	12	305	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	319	273	62	9	2	6	39	80	4	10	3	226	330	339	669	113	295	25	12	306	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	56%	326	279	64	9	3	6	40	82	4	10	3	227	330	342	672	115	295	25	12	307	95	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	322	276	62	9	2	6	39	81	4	10	3	226	330	339	669	113	295	25	12	306	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	59%	342	293	67	10	3	6	42	87	4	10	4	224	328	335	662	111	294	25	12	303	92	-3	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	61%	347	298	67	10	3	6	42	89	4	10	4	222	325	329	654	107	293	26	12	300	90	-4	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	62%	348	300	65	10	2	5	42	90	3	10	4	219	322	321	643	102	291	26	12	296	87	-5	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	STL	63%	345	298	63	9	2	5	41	91	3	9	5	215	317	312	629	97	288	26	12	290	83	-7	-0	-2	+1	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3423	2937	654	96	25	55	418	873	38	101	37	223	327	329	656	106	295	26	12	300	89	-40	+5	-4	+12	+74	4.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	124	18	5	10	79	166	7	19	7	222	326	326	652	104	295	26	12	300	89	-8	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6376	5448	1198	167	47	102	805	1623	68	182	66	220	328	324	652	104	292	25	13	300	89	-75	+9	-7	+22	+134	8.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	555	122	17	5	10	82	165	7	19	7	220	327	323	650	103	292	25	13	300	89	-8	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Billy Maloney'01-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,762 PA	4.2	2,762	6	155	235*	299*	373*	+5	+9	6.9	6.9
/162	664	1	37	+1.1	+2.1	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.4	3,558	59	103	223	323	330	+13	+20	7.3	6.5
/162	664	11	19	+2.4	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 6
#2Gerald Young'87-'94 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,083 PA	3.1	2,083	3	155	246*	332*	329*	+4	+9	5.1	5.5
/162	664	1	49	+1.2	+2.9	1.6	pk7: 6
#3Delino DeShieldslast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,114 PA	3.2	2,114	19	111	246	327	342	+1	+6	5.3	5.3
/162	664	6	35	+0.4	+1.8	1.7	pk7: 5
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Chuck Carr'90-'97 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,914 PA	2.9	1,914	13	144	242*	306*	331*	+6	+20	2.6	2.6
/162	664	5	50	+2.1	+7.1	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Takahashi (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	204/316/272	68	288	1	3	26%	13%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Hector Osorio 2024 · A	19	44	35→45	51→50	62	200/321/262	62	245	2	15	17%	13%	76	-0.4	216/319/308	92	262	8	12	19%	11%	84	+0.1	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Abrahan Ramirez 2024 · A	19	47→46	36→45	51→55	59	218/319/284	66	282	2	16	21%	12%	78	-0.3	220/304/299	79	303	4	13	26%	10%	75	-0.5	214/298/296	82	295	5	16	27%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Marco Vargas 2024 · A	19	45→46	37→40	50→60	57	208/302/289	81	267	4	13	22%	12%	72	-0.7	214/295/280	66	304	3	25	27%	10%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Carlos Sanchez 2024 · A	19	49→54	37→40	50	56	218/326/301	83	327	4	13	30%	13%	84	+0.2	217/305/303	86	356	6	12	36%	11%	76	-0.4	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
●Josue De Paula 2024 · A	19	52→54	38→50	51→55	52	242/326/327	85	316	5	14	23%	10%	89	+0.5	236/331/360	124	307	12	20	25%	12%	99	+1.3	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2021 · A	19	45→46	37→55	49→50	47	212/272/292	80	272	4	8	22%	7%	61	-1.5	214/265/314	100	290	7	9	27%	6%	63	-1.4	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A	19	43→50	37→45	49→50	47	199/284/273	74	302	3	11	32%	10%	62	-1.4	217/300/325	108	317	8	16	31%	9%	80	-0.2	226/304/342	116	321	9	18	30%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	37	39→45	46→45	53	177/289/262	85	262	6	6	31%	12%	63	-1.4	182/260/254	72	283	5	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→53	41→45	52→55	47	212/293/316	104	323	7	14	34%	10%	75	-0.5	217/315/345	128	302	15	12	30%	12%	91	+0.6	218/312/337	119	292	14	14	28%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	46	38→40	48→45	50	212/301/299	87	300	5	8	28%	10%	74	-0.5	199/264/269	70	309	2	9	33%	7%	53	-2.1	176/234/225	50	289	0	8	36%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A	19	40→46	40→45	50→55	58	188/306/284	96	264	6	16	28%	14%	74	-0.5	205/300/295	90	282	5	20	26%	11%	74	-0.6	219/288/322	102	278	9	23	23%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Jason Martin 2015 · A	19	45→52	36→60	50	49	210/274/290	80	273	1	11	23%	8%	61	-1.5	222/277/351	129	295	12	12	27%	7%	76	-0.4	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	49	220/298/335	114	290	7	10	25%	9%	80	-0.1	201/274/317	116	305	8	13	34%	9%	68	-1.0	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
●Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	44→54	37→45	51→50	49	208/286/276	68	285	4	12	26%	9%	63	-1.3	249/303/357	108	317	7	11	22%	7%	86	+0.3	271/329/396	125	328	10	12	19%	8%	104	+1.3
✕Emmanuel Avila 2007 · A	18	45→55	36→45	50→45	54	206/294/278	71	267	2	9	22%	10%	67	-1.1	203/252/261	58	256	2	6	21%	5%	46	-2.6	279/319/373	94	320	8	6	15%	4%	96	+0.8

Lucas Takahashi

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps