Juan Matheus — OGILVIE

Juan MatheusSS Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 22 S/R 5'9" / 155 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION565 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP260

ISO93

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	252	444	472	917	220	322	22	24	409	163	+13	+0	—	—	+4	1.7
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	257	469	371	841	114	360	22	28	388	148	+3	+1	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	18	13	1	1	0	0	5	6	0	2	0	77	333	154	487	77	143	33	28	265	66	-1	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2024	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	196	162	52	10	1	5	29	28	3	10	7	321	433	488	921	167	359	14	15	408	162	+14	-1	—	—	+4	1.8
2025	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	126	108	31	9	0	1	16	22	1	5	3	287	384	398	782	111	349	17	13	353	125	+4	-0	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	394	336	91	23	2	2	48	74	3	35	8	271	367	369	736	98	333	19	12	331	110	+5	+4	—	—	+9	1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	142	23	6	2	3	26	54	3	15	7	162	304	296	600	134	227	31	15	268	68	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	40	8	2	1	0	9	16	0	11	3	200	347	300	647	100	292	32	18	285	79	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	18	14	1	1	0	0	4	9	0	2	0	71	278	143	421	71	133	50	22	187	13	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	196	173	40	7	1	3	18	42	3	10	7	231	314	335	650	104	275	21	9	289	82	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	126	113	27	7	0	1	11	30	1	5	3	239	312	327	639	88	313	24	9	285	79	-3	-0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	394	347	73	20	2	2	37	105	3	35	8	210	292	297	589	86	275	27	9	262	63	-17	+4	—	—	+9	-0.5
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	142	23	6	2	3	26	54	3	15	7	162	304	296	600	134	233	31	15	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	252	444	472	917	220	322	22	24	409	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	40	8	2	1	0	9	16	0	11	3	200	347	300	647	100	320	32	18	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	257	469	371	841	114	360	22	28	388	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	187	40	7	1	3	22	50	3	12	7	214	307	310	617	96	272	23	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	214	175	53	11	1	5	34	34	3	12	7	303	425	463	887	160	348	16	16	396	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	460	100	27	2	3	48	135	4	40	11	217	297	304	601	87	294	26	9	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	520	444	122	32	2	3	64	96	4	40	11	275	371	376	747	101	337	18	12	337	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	141	23	6	2	3	26	54	3	15	7	163	304	298	602	135	227	31	15	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	41	8	2	1	0	9	16	0	11	3	195	347	293	640	98	292	32	18	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	187	40	7	1	3	22	50	3	12	7	214	307	310	617	96	263	23	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	463	100	27	2	3	48	135	4	40	11	216	297	302	599	86	284	26	9	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	41	8	2	1	0	9	16	0	11	3	195	347	293	640	98	292	32	18	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	187	40	7	1	3	22	50	3	12	7	214	307	310	617	96	263	23	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	463	100	27	2	3	48	135	4	40	11	216	297	302	599	86	284	26	9	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	MIA	—	565	513	117	22	2	13	37	122	6	29	5	228	288	355	643	127	272	22	7	277	74	-18	+4	+0	+6	+12	0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	MIA	—	182	157	41	8	2	7	22	29	1	8	1	261	356	471	827	210	276	16	12	362	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	MIA	—	341	305	85	16	0	9	25	60	4	16	3	279	341	420	761	141	318	18	7	334	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AAA RAW	MIA	—	42	35	7	2	0	0	6	8	1	5	1	200	333	257	590	57	259	19	14	286	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	AA MLE	MIA	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		268	22	11	277	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	AA MLE	MIA	—	574	521	118	22	2	13	38	124	6	29	5	226	287	351	638	125	270	22	7	277	74	-18	+4	+0	+6	+12	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	510	463	104	21	2	10	38	111	4	19	4	225	289	343	633	119	270	22	7	283	78	-13	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	47%	547	495	113	23	2	12	42	118	5	20	4	228	295	356	651	127	272	22	8	290	83	-11	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	568	513	118	24	2	13	45	121	5	21	4	230	298	361	659	131	273	21	8	294	85	-10	+3	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	578	522	121	24	2	14	46	124	5	22	5	232	300	366	666	134	274	21	8	296	87	-9	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	580	523	121	24	2	14	47	124	5	22	5	231	301	365	666	134	274	21	8	296	87	-9	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	577	520	119	24	2	13	47	125	5	20	4	229	299	358	657	129	273	22	8	296	86	-9	+2	-1	+6	+13	1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	568	511	117	23	2	13	47	124	5	19	4	229	300	358	658	129	273	22	8	294	85	-10	+2	-1	+6	+12	0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	558	502	114	23	2	12	46	123	5	17	4	227	298	353	651	125	272	22	8	291	83	-11	+2	-2	+6	+12	0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	544	489	109	22	1	12	45	122	5	14	3	223	295	346	641	123	270	22	8	287	81	-13	+2	-3	+6	+12	0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	526	473	103	20	1	11	43	120	5	11	2	218	290	334	624	116	267	23	8	282	77	-14	+1	-4	+6	+11	0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	496	449	95	18	1	10	40	115	4	8	2	212	282	323	605	111	263	23	8	275	72	-16	+1	-4	+5	+11	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	179	162	36	7	1	3	13	39	2	7	1	222	288	333	621	111	262	22	7	269	78	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	47%	254	230	51	10	1	5	20	55	2	9	2	222	290	339	629	117	265	22	8	276	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	294	266	58	11	1	6	23	63	3	11	2	218	288	335	622	117	266	21	8	280	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	314	283	63	12	1	7	25	67	3	12	2	223	293	346	639	124	266	21	8	281	87	-5	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	315	284	63	12	1	7	25	68	3	12	2	222	292	345	637	123	266	22	8	282	87	-5	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	313	282	63	12	1	7	25	68	3	11	2	223	294	348	641	124	265	22	8	281	86	-5	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	302	271	60	11	1	7	25	66	3	10	2	221	294	347	641	125	265	22	8	279	85	-5	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	293	264	58	11	1	6	24	65	3	9	2	220	292	337	629	117	264	22	8	277	83	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	283	255	55	10	1	6	23	63	3	7	2	216	288	333	622	118	262	22	8	273	81	-7	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	272	246	52	10	1	5	22	62	2	6	1	211	281	321	603	110	259	23	8	268	77	-7	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.0
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	256	231	49	9	1	5	21	60	2	4	1	212	283	325	608	113	256	23	8	262	72	-8	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3075	2774	608	115	11	64	246	676	29	98	19	219	290	338	627	119	265	22	8	276	81	-64	+12	-8	+33	+67	4.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	128	24	2	14	52	143	6	21	4	218	288	338	626	119	264	22	8	276	81	-13	+3	-2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	7017	6297	1406	288	25	143	592	1584	63	271	69	223	296	345	642	122	274	23	8	287	81	-127	+22	-15	+65	+131	7.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	130	27	2	13	55	147	6	25	6	223	297	343	640	120	274	23	8	287	81	-14	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.6	3,083	68	98	227	293	352	+33	+18	6.2	5.7
/162	664	15	21	+7.1	+3.9	1.3	pk7: 5
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Matheus (OGILVIE)	22	45	25	60	50	217/282/327	109	268	6	14	22%	7%	74	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→44	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	78	-0.3	208/277/274	66	271	2	17	22%	8%	59	-1.7	199/272/257	58	258	1	17	21%	8%	50	-1.6
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→41	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	67	-1.1	208/276/283	75	319	2	18	32%	8%	60	-1.6	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	54	219/305/291	72	275	2	31	20%	10%	74	-0.6	206/278/275	69	280	3	16	25%	8%	59	-1.6	170/237/218	48	234	0	10	25%	7%	27	-1.1
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	44→46	41→40	55→60	45	214/280/320	106	278	7	20	25%	7%	70	-0.8	213/281/300	87	282	6	26	25%	7%	66	-1.1	204/276/285	81	269	7	32	25%	8%	59	-1.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2013 · A	22	45	40	53→55	53	218/296/306	88	253	9	19	18%	9%	74	-0.6	203/280/286	83	264	6	13	23%	9%	63	-1.3	141/245/214	74	184	4	14	24%	11%	32	-0.7
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	49→59	35→30	56→60	52	228/304/291	62	282	2	27	19%	9%	73	-0.6	235/323/289	54	300	2	27	20%	10%	80	-0.2	265/327/322	57	316	2	17	16%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Cliff Pennington 2006 · A	22	47→55	38→45	52→55	49	224/287/301	77	276	6	20	20%	8%	69	-0.9	218/287/297	79	268	5	16	19%	9%	68	-1.0	247/310/355	108	294	7	24	18%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	35→30	54→60	52	209/291/266	57	279	3	25	24%	10%	63	-1.4	222/308/290	68	293	2	20	22%	10%	74	-0.5	235/336/301	66	302	0	28	19%	12%	86	+0.1
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	66	-1.1	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	72	-0.7	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Wilmer Difo 2014 · A	22	43→53	38→45	53→55	49	207/273/288	81	260	5	18	22%	8%	61	-1.5	248/285/355	107	297	9	24	19%	4%	80	-0.2	238/302/342	104	297	8	11	22%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	39→45	58→55	46	205/275/296	91	274	6	17	26%	8%	63	-1.3	223/300/306	83	296	5	16	24%	9%	75	-0.5	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Cesar Diaz 2016 · A	23	51	39→40	58→50	57	239/316/336	97	268	4	23	12%	10%	87	+0.4	221/285/308	87	268	6	15	18%	8%	70	-0.9	216/275/293	77	258	6	15	18%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Gabriel Maciel 2022 · A	23	44→52	37→30	54→55	45	208/267/278	70	274	4	19	25%	7%	55	-1.9	220/279/301	81	282	5	13	22%	7%	65	-1.2	232/292/307	76	288	2	11	19%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	48	40	65→60	45	228/274/334	105	272	6	27	18%	6%	70	-0.8	246/275/326	80	306	3	23	20%	4%	68	-1.0	271/291/330	59	338	0	29	19%	2%	70	-0.3
✕Francisco Aponte 2012 · A	21	50	35→30	53→60	54	230/313/289	59	284	1	21	18%	9%	76	-0.4	212/265/280	68	271	2	11	21%	6%	55	-1.9	205/243/263	58	255	0	10	19%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Adenson Chourio 2008 · A	22	51	34→30	56→60	51	237/314/290	53	294	2	31	19%	8%	76	-0.4	230/290/270	40	307	1	26	23%	7%	62	-1.4	222/273/242	20	307	0	28	26%	6%	46	-1.1
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	47	39→45	56→55	44	223/277/312	89	299	5	24	26%	7%	67	-1.1	220/277/319	99	287	7	20	24%	7%	68	-1.0	209/274/322	113	274	9	12	26%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	50	35→30	58→55	54	229/334/291	63	272	2	18	15%	9%	86	+0.3	232/327/292	60	284	2	18	17%	8%	83	+0.1	241/335/285	43	296	0	25	16%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2013 · A	21	47	39→40	52→55	53	221/300/312	92	270	6	17	20%	9%	76	-0.4	218/286/310	92	283	7	10	24%	8%	71	-0.8	224/275/296	72	297	6	7	25%	5%	59	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps