Juan Matheus — OGILVIE

Juan MatheusSS Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 S/R 5'9" / 155 lbs A+ HR -4%BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.7 · 2030

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .290 / .308

PA320

HR3

SB15

K%26

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

25→25

SPD

60→60

EYE

53↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.6peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.3	$13M	+$10M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.0	$10M	+$6M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.8	$4M	+$0.2M
Totals		$13M		$72M	+$58M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	172	142	22	6	2	2	26	55	3	15	7	.155	.298	.268	.566	.113	.233	32	15	.264	60	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	50	40	8	2	1	0	9	16	0	11	3	.200	.347	.300	.647	.100	.320	32	18	.286	77	-1	+1	+0	+1	+1	0.2
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	214	187	40	7	1	3	22	51	3	12	7	.214	.307	.310	.617	.096	.274	24	10	.274	68	-8	-0	+0	+2	+6	0.0
2025	21	A	2 teams	520	462	101	27	2	3	46	134	4	40	11	.219	.295	.305	.600	.087	.294	26	9	.266	62	-22	+4	+0	+6	+15	0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	75	66	12	3	1	3	7	16	0	5	0	.182	.260	.394	.654	.212	.184	21	9	.271	66	-3	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	245	219	46	11	1	4	22	61	2	10	2	.210	.288	.324	.612	.114	.269	25	9	.274	68	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
TOT	22	MLB	MIA	320	285	58	14	2	7	29	77	2	15	2	.204	.282	.340	.622	.137	.250	24	9	.274	68	-12	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	MIA	489	436	94	23	3	8	47	112	3	18	4	.216	.296	.337	.633	.122	.268	23	10	.284	76	-13	+2	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2028	24	MLB 26%	MIA	526	465	102	24	3	10	52	119	4	18	4	.219	.303	.348	.652	.129	.271	23	10	.292	82	-11	+2	+0	+6	+15	1.2
2029	25	MLB 44%	MIA	547	483	108	25	3	11	55	123	4	17	3	.224	.308	.356	.664	.133	.273	22	10	.298	86	-9	+2	+0	+6	+15	1.5
2030	26	MLB 59%	MIA	557	492	110	26	3	11	56	125	4	17	3	.224	.308	.356	.664	.132	.273	22	10	.300	88	-8	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.7
2031	27	MLB 76%	MIA	559	493	110	26	3	11	57	126	4	16	3	.223	.309	.355	.664	.132	.273	23	10	.300	88	-8	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.6
2032	28	MLB 94%	MIA	555	489	108	25	3	11	57	126	4	15	2	.221	.307	.352	.659	.131	.273	23	10	.299	87	-8	+2	-1	+6	+16	1.5
2033	29	MLB	MIA	546	480	107	25	3	11	57	126	4	13	2	.223	.311	.356	.667	.133	.272	23	10	.297	85	-9	+2	-1	+6	+15	1.3
2034	30	MLB	MIA	536	471	102	24	2	10	56	125	4	12	2	.217	.305	.340	.645	.123	.271	23	10	.294	83	-10	+2	-2	+6	+15	1.0
2035	31	MLB	MIA	522	459	99	23	2	10	54	124	4	10	1	.216	.304	.340	.644	.124	.269	24	10	.290	80	-12	+2	-3	+6	+15	0.8
2036	32	MLB	MIA	504	444	94	22	2	9	52	122	3	9	0	.212	.299	.331	.630	.119	.268	24	10	.285	76	-13	+2	-4	+5	+14	0.5
2037	33	MLB	MIA	474	419	87	20	2	8	49	118	3	8	0	.208	.295	.322	.617	.115	.266	25	10	.280	72	-15	+2	-4	+5	+13	0.1
2038	34	MLB	MIA	428	378	76	18	2	6	44	110	3	7	0	.201	.289	.307	.596	.106	.264	26	10	.273	67	-16	+1	-5	+5	+12	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7444	6559	1414	334	38	128	761	1773	56	248	54	.216	.302	.337	.639	.121	.273	24	10	.288	79	-180	+28	-20	+80	+211	12.2
/ 162G	—			650	573	123	29	3	11	66	155	5	22	5	.215	.301	.333	.635	.119	.273	24	10	.288	79	-16	+2	-2	+7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	.252	.444	.472	.917	.220	.322	22	24	.409	171	+14	+0	—	—	+5	1.9
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	.257	.469	.371	.841	.114	.360	22	28	.388	155	+3	+1	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	18	13	1	1	0	0	5	6	0	2	0	.077	.333	.154	.487	.077	.143	33	28	.265	61	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	196	162	52	10	1	5	29	28	3	10	7	.321	.433	.488	.921	.167	.359	14	15	.408	170	+16	-1	—	—	+6	2.1
2025	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	126	108	31	9	0	1	16	22	1	5	3	.287	.384	.398	.782	.111	.349	17	13	.353	129	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	394	336	91	23	2	2	48	74	3	35	8	.271	.367	.369	.736	.098	.333	19	12	.331	112	+5	+4	—	—	+11	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Matheus (OGILVIE)	22	45	25	60	50	.213/.290/.308	.095	.286	3	11	26%	9%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→39	38→40	61→60	48	.207/.284/.298	.091	.280	3	20	26%	8%	63	-0.9	.210/.279/.286	.076	.314	2	18	31%	8%	57	-1.2	.219/.291/.296	.077	.328	2	26	31%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Jeremy Arocho 2022 · A	23	54→43	36→30	57→60	49	.245/.317/.305	.060	.339	3	23	27%	9%	78	+0.2	.219/.322/.276	.057	.299	2	29	24%	13%	74	-0.1	.202/.315/.249	.047	.271	1	35	22%	14%	62	-0.6
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→41	36→40	62→60	50	.232/.310/.308	.076	.297	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.1	.204/.270/.269	.065	.263	2	18	21%	7%	49	-1.8	.190/.258/.245	.055	.244	1	17	21%	7%	35	-1.9
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	53	.217/.300/.288	.072	.271	2	30	20%	10%	67	-0.5	.206/.280/.274	.068	.278	2	17	24%	8%	55	-1.4	.170/.237/.218	.048	.234	0	10	25%	7%	17	-1.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	44→54	40→45	57→55	46	.212/.280/.309	.097	.289	6	21	28%	8%	63	-0.8	.250/.309/.355	.105	.324	7	26	23%	7%	87	+0.8	.260/.318/.360	.100	.329	7	29	22%	7%	88	+0.8
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	36→30	54→60	51	.210/.290/.269	.060	.280	4	23	25%	10%	59	-1.1	.222/.308/.288	.066	.293	2	21	22%	10%	71	-0.3	.235/.336/.301	.066	.302	0	28	19%	12%	85	+0.3
●Maikel Garcia 2022 · A	22	50→56	39→45	58→60	50	.237/.300/.330	.093	.298	5	21	21%	8%	77	+0.1	.243/.299/.343	.100	.308	7	27	22%	7%	80	+0.4	.251/.312/.364	.113	.295	9	27	17%	8%	88	+1.0
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	46	36→40	57→60	47	.215/.281/.293	.077	.280	1	18	22%	8%	59	-1.1	.228/.289/.316	.088	.298	4	17	23%	8%	69	-0.4	.245/.306/.339	.094	.314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	44→45	41→40	55→60	45	.210/.275/.315	.105	.273	7	20	25%	7%	63	-0.8	.209/.273/.297	.088	.277	7	26	25%	7%	58	-1.2	.198/.268/.283	.085	.261	8	32	26%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Gabriel Maciel 2022 · A	23	45→53	37→30	54→55	46	.213/.274/.283	.070	.277	4	19	24%	7%	54	-1.4	.220/.279/.301	.081	.280	4	14	21%	7%	60	-1.0	.236/.297/.312	.076	.289	2	11	18%	7%	66	-0.2
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2008 · A	22	47	40	51→55	46	.225/.293/.318	.094	.300	7	17	26%	8%	72	-0.2	.201/.260/.278	.077	.307	5	12	34%	6%	47	-1.9	.135/.182/.184	.049	.223	4	5	40%	2%	-12	-1.0
✕Luis Valdez 2022 · A	22	49→52	38→40	57→70	42	.229/.293/.313	.084	.331	5	24	31%	7%	70	-0.3	.214/.264/.277	.063	.327	3	44	33%	6%	48	-1.9	.201/.251/.255	.054	.309	3	56	34%	6%	34	-1.5
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	47	39→40	63→60	46	.225/.273/.324	.099	.270	5	25	19%	6%	63	-0.8	.246/.276/.328	.082	.304	3	23	19%	4%	65	-0.7	.272/.292/.330	.058	.335	0	29	18%	2%	67	-0.2
✕Shawn O'Malley 2010 · A	22	48→58	34→40	53→60	46	.221/.299/.274	.053	.305	2	26	26%	8%	63	-0.8	.222/.294/.284	.062	.296	2	25	23%	7%	63	-0.8	.259/.321/.357	.098	.322	5	23	20%	7%	89	+0.6
✕Cliff Pennington 2006 · A	22	48→55	38→45	52→55	50	.226/.290/.305	.079	.274	6	19	19%	8%	67	-0.5	.217/.286/.297	.080	.267	5	16	19%	9%	63	-0.8	.244/.307/.348	.104	.291	7	24	18%	8%	82	+0.5
✕Francisco Aponte 2012 · A	21	50	35→30	52→60	53	.232/.314/.291	.059	.288	1	21	18%	9%	74	-0.1	.209/.262/.274	.065	.264	2	12	20%	6%	46	-2.0	.194/.230/.249	.054	.240	0	10	18%	4%	23	-1.3
✕Jose Acosta 2021 · A	21	48	39→45	58→55	47	.225/.291/.318	.093	.302	5	19	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.202/.257/.316	.114	.311	11	15	36%	6%	56	-1.3	.175/.230/.298	.122	.266	13	16	38%	5%	37	-1.1
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	48→58	38→40	60→65	43	.228/.283/.312	.085	.304	5	32	26%	6%	66	-0.6	.238/.305/.329	.091	.310	4	33	22%	8%	79	+0.3	.260/.326/.339	.079	.330	3	54	20%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	44→45	40→45	55→50	50	.208/.290/.307	.098	.287	7	16	28%	10%	68	-0.5	.222/.281/.341	.119	.304	12	11	29%	7%	72	-0.2	.227/.267/.356	.130	.303	16	8	30%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	46→48	38→45	55	43	.220/.271/.304	.084	.294	5	23	26%	6%	58	-1.2	.219/.277/.316	.097	.288	7	20	25%	7%	63	-0.8	.206/.271/.318	.111	.268	10	12	26%	8%	58	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)