Juan Matheus

SS Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 23 S/R 5'9" / 155 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#382ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A/ROKNYY	214	.303/.425/.463	5	12	74	—	.217/.307/.318
2025	21	A+/ANYY	520	.275/.371/.376	3	40	63	—	.216/.291/.298
2026	22	AAA/AA/A+MIA	583	.266/.346/.421	16	30	79	—	.237/.300/.370
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBMIA	4	.219/.282/.330	0	0	79	0.0
2028PROJ28% MLB	24	MLBMIA	141	.222/.286/.338	3	5	82	0.2
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBMIA	234	.223/.288/.343	5	8	85	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$3M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%96

Whiff%86

BB%85

Speed83

K%73

Max EV36

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 68%

CompsBrayan Rocchio (age 23) · Ramon Santiago (age 23) · Jorge Barrosa (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .282 / .330

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%7

BABIP260

ISO120

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	252	444	472	917	220	322	22	24	409	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	257	469	371	841	114	360	22	28	388	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	18	13	1	1	0	0	5	6	0	2	0	77	333	154	487	77	143	33	28	265	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	196	162	52	10	1	5	29	28	3	10	7	321	433	488	921	167	359	14	15	408	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	126	108	31	9	0	1	16	22	1	5	3	287	384	398	782	111	349	17	13	353	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	394	336	91	23	2	2	48	74	3	35	8	271	367	369	736	98	333	19	12	331	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	60	49	10	3	0	0	9	11	1	6	1	204	339	265	604	61	256	18	15	287	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	341	305	85	16	0	9	25	60	4	16	3	279	341	420	761	141	318	18	7	334	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	182	157	41	8	2	7	22	29	1	8	1	261	356	471	827	210	276	16	12	362	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	139	19	5	2	2	29	46	3	15	7	137	298	245	543	108	188	27	17	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	39	7	1	1	0	10	14	0	11	3	179	347	256	603	77	242	28	20	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	18	15	1	1	0	0	3	9	0	2	0	67	222	133	356	67	119	50	17	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	196	173	40	7	1	3	18	42	3	10	7	231	314	335	650	104	274	21	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	126	114	27	7	0	1	10	29	1	5	3	237	304	325	629	88	305	23	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	394	349	73	18	2	2	35	101	3	35	8	209	287	289	576	80	269	26	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	60	51	10	3	0	0	7	13	1	6	1	196	305	255	560	59	243	22	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	341	312	79	15	0	8	18	73	4	16	3	253	302	378	681	125	292	21	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	182	163	36	6	2	6	16	37	1	8	1	221	294	393	687	172	237	20	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	139	19	5	2	2	29	46	3	15	7	137	298	245	543	108	185	27	17	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	252	444	472	917	220	322	22	24	409	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	39	7	1	1	0	10	14	0	11	3	179	347	256	603	77	269	28	20	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	257	469	371	841	114	360	22	28	388	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	188	40	7	1	3	21	50	3	12	7	213	302	309	610	96	270	23	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	214	175	53	11	1	5	34	34	3	12	7	303	425	463	887	160	348	16	16	396	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	463	100	25	2	3	45	130	4	40	11	216	291	298	589	82	287	25	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	520	444	122	32	2	3	64	96	4	40	11	275	371	376	747	101	337	18	12	337	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	583	527	124	24	2	13	40	123	6	30	5	235	297	362	659	127	280	21	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	583	511	136	27	2	16	56	100	6	30	5	266	346	421	766	155	299	17	10	338	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	138	19	5	2	2	29	46	3	15	7	138	298	246	545	109	188	27	17	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	40	7	1	1	0	10	14	0	11	3	175	347	250	597	75	242	28	20	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	188	40	7	1	3	21	50	3	12	7	213	302	309	610	96	261	23	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	466	100	25	2	3	45	130	4	40	11	215	291	296	587	82	278	25	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	583	532	124	24	2	13	40	123	6	30	5	233	297	359	656	126	270	21	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	214	188	40	7	1	3	21	50	3	12	7	213	302	309	610	96	261	23	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	520	466	100	25	2	3	45	130	4	40	11	215	291	296	587	82	278	25	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	583	532	124	24	2	13	40	123	6	30	5	233	297	359	656	126	270	21	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	2%	629	574	130	26	2	13	45	130	5	22	4	226	289	346	635	119	269	21	7	285	79	-16	+3	-0	+7	+14	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	219	282	330	613	112	260	25	0	276	79	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	28%	496	452	104	21	2	11	37	102	4	17	3	229	293	354	647	125	271	21	7	290	82	-10	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	44%	536	486	112	22	2	12	40	110	5	18	4	231	296	359	654	128	272	21	7	293	85	-10	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	557	505	117	23	2	13	42	115	5	19	4	231	297	361	658	130	273	21	8	295	86	-10	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	566	513	119	24	2	13	43	118	5	18	4	231	297	361	658	130	273	21	8	295	86	-10	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	565	512	118	23	2	13	43	120	5	16	4	230	296	359	656	129	273	21	8	294	85	-10	+2	-0	+6	+12	1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	556	504	115	23	2	12	42	119	5	13	3	228	294	353	647	125	272	21	8	290	83	-11	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	545	495	111	22	2	11	41	119	4	10	3	225	290	346	637	121	271	22	8	286	80	-13	+1	-2	+6	+12	0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	530	481	107	21	1	11	40	118	4	6	2	221	286	337	623	115	268	22	8	280	76	-15	+0	-2	+6	+11	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	28%	141	129	28	5	0	3	10	29	1	5	1	222	286	338	625	117	262	21	7	281	82	-3	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	44%	234	212	48	9	1	5	18	48	2	8	2	223	288	343	632	120	263	21	8	284	85	-4	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	292	265	59	11	1	6	22	60	3	10	2	224	290	345	635	122	263	21	8	285	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	316	286	64	12	1	7	24	66	3	10	2	223	290	345	635	122	264	21	8	286	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	328	297	66	12	1	7	25	69	3	9	2	222	289	343	633	121	264	21	8	285	85	-6	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	321	290	64	12	1	7	25	69	3	8	2	220	287	338	625	117	263	21	8	281	83	-7	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	314	285	62	12	1	6	24	68	2	6	1	218	284	331	615	113	262	22	8	277	80	-8	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	305	277	60	11	1	6	23	68	2	3	1	214	279	322	601	108	260	22	8	272	76	-9	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2251	2041	451	84	7	47	171	477	19	59	13	221	287	338	625	117	264	21	8	281	80	-46	+7	-3	+24	+49	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	130	24	2	14	49	138	5	17	4	221	286	340	625	119	263	21	8	281	80	-13	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6100	5495	1237	250	24	121	488	1328	55	232	61	225	295	345	640	120	273	22	8	286	80	-95	+14	-4	+49	+99	6.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	133	27	3	13	52	142	6	25	6	227	297	350	646	123	276	22	8	286	80	-13	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 341 PAwOBA .328 → .288 (−40)K% 17.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.60%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.33%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	5.19%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.03%
Singles /BIP	24.49%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.966	×1.042	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	6.53%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.966	×1.042	5.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.966	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.67%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.06%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .328 → .288; ISO .141 → .123; BABIP .318 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 182 PAwOBA .356 → .291 (−65)K% 15.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.93%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.09%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	8.69%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.44%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.962	×1.012	16.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.962	×1.012	4.93%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.962	×1.012	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	5.47%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.43%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .356 → .291; ISO .210 → .170; BABIP .276 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 60 PAwOBA .285 → .251 (−34)K% 18.3% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.33%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.87%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.65%
Singles /BIP	18.42%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.050	17.99%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .285 → .251; ISO .061 → .055; BABIP .256 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ATampa Tarpons · 394 PAwOBA .329 → .256 (−73)K% 18.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.78%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	25.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.18%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×1.015	8.79%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.60%
Singles /BIP	24.43%	÷1.119	×0.920	×0.973	×1.015	19.83%
Doubles /BIP	8.78%	÷1.046	×0.830	×0.973	×1.015	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷0.913	×0.910	×0.973	×1.015	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	0.76%	÷0.842	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .329 → .256; ISO .098 → .081; BABIP .333 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 126 PAwOBA .348 → .280 (−68)K% 17.5% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.46%	÷0.985	×1.310	—	—	23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.70%	÷0.984	×0.600	—	×1.027	7.95%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.63%
Singles /BIP	24.42%	÷0.991	×0.870	×1.007	×1.027	22.16%
Doubles /BIP	10.47%	÷1.014	×0.780	×1.007	×1.027	8.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.975	×0.850	×1.007	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.16%	÷0.969	×0.880	—	×1.027	1.08%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .348 → .280; ISO .111 → .092; BABIP .349 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Yankees · 196 PAwOBA .402 → .287 (−114)K% 14.3% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.29%	÷0.972	×1.440	—	—	21.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.80%	÷0.988	×0.620	—	×0.995	9.24%
HBP% /PA	1.53%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.10%
Singles /BIP	26.87%	÷1.002	×0.820	×0.990	×0.995	21.67%
Doubles /BIP	7.46%	÷1.087	×0.720	×0.990	×0.995	4.87%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷0.970	×0.720	×0.990	×0.995	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	3.73%	÷1.142	×0.780	—	×0.995	2.54%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 94, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .402 → .287; ISO .167 → .113; BABIP .359 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 18 PAwOBA .261 → .179 (−82)K% 33.3% → 47.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.959	×1.360	—	—	47.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.78%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.030	18.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.035	×0.920	—	×1.030	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.028	×0.830	—	×1.030	11.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.979	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .261 → .179; ISO .077 → .056; BABIP .143 → .119. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 50 PAwOBA .388 → .280 (−108)K% 22.0% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.00%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	27.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	28.00%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.995	20.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.961	×0.680	—	×0.995	17.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.996	×0.600	—	×0.995	5.00%
Triples /BIP	4.17%	÷0.996	×0.600	—	×0.995	2.50%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.463	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 193, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 99, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .388 → .280; ISO .114 → .075; BABIP .360 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddie Patek'68-'81 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,246 PA	9.4	6,246	41	385	242*	311*	356*	+66	-5	14.7	15.3
/162	664	4	41	+7.0	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#2Julio Lugo'00-'11 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,338 PA	8.0	5,338	80	198	259*	323*	374*	+48	-38	10.5	11.7
/162	664	10	25	+6.0	-4.7	1.3	pk7: 13
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.4	2,256	50	60	229	291	355	+24	+0	4.6	4.5
/162	664	15	18	+7.1	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Matheus (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	224/287/343	118	269	4	7	21%	7%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brayan Rocchio 2024 · MLB	23	51→56	43→45	51→50	48	246/307/368	123	297	10	16	20%	7%	92	+0.7	231/300/353	122	273	11	16	19%	8%	86	+0.3	225/297/350	125	260	12	16	18%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Ramon Santiago 2003 · MLB	23	49→52	45	52→50	46	238/304/366	128	281	12	16	20%	6%	91	+0.6	223/288/310	87	254	7	13	15%	6%	72	-0.7	256/332/354	98	297	10	3	16%	8%	98	+0.6
✕Jorge Barrosa 2024 · AAA	23	49→52	45	51→55	51	238/310/367	129	288	11	18	21%	9%	93	+0.8	231/298/349	118	295	10	14	23%	8%	84	+0.1	225/292/335	110	291	8	13	24%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Taylor Walls 2021 · AA	25	48→54	44→45	53→60	48	234/295/359	125	292	10	21	23%	8%	84	+0.2	203/294/324	121	273	11	19	27%	11%	78	-0.3	190/291/310	120	252	12	22	27%	12%	74	-0.4
✕Cole Tucker 2020 · MLB	24	48→51	42→45	55	46	230/289/344	114	294	8	20	24%	7%	79	-0.2	215/276/321	106	289	9	13	27%	7%	69	-0.9	208/281/299	91	291	7	13	29%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Tsung-Che Cheng 2024 · AA	23	47→48	44→45	57→55	46	230/292/354	124	295	9	20	25%	8%	82	+0.0	211/279/311	100	292	9	17	29%	8%	68	-1.0	200/274/289	89	282	8	17	30%	9%	59	-1.2
✕Felix Valerio 2023 · AA	22	43→49	44→45	53→55	49	215/287/333	118	255	12	23	20%	8%	76	-0.4	206/269/308	102	265	9	16	25%	7%	64	-1.3	193/254/279	87	254	8	13	26%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Alen Hanson 2016 · AAA	23	50→53	43→50	60	42	245/281/370	125	300	9	25	22%	5%	81	-0.1	247/283/374	127	300	11	28	21%	5%	83	+0.1	253/288/390	138	302	12	30	20%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Peyton Wilson 2024 · AA	24	49→52	43→45	54→55	45	234/298/349	114	304	9	17	25%	7%	84	+0.1	215/285/331	116	290	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.5	205/279/322	116	282	10	22	29%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Andy Burns 2014 · AA	23	47→57	46→50	53→55	44	234/288/377	143	295	12	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	237/281/352	115	291	9	13	21%	5%	78	-0.3	235/285/340	105	281	10	9	20%	6%	73	-0.5
●Jemile Weeks 2010 · AA	23	50→60	44→45	52→55	49	243/308/363	119	293	12	12	21%	8%	91	+0.6	251/310/358	107	297	6	19	17%	7%	90	+0.6	255/325/347	92	308	3	20	17%	8%	91	+0.7
✕Cesar Izturis 2002 · MLB	22	50→60	45→40	58→55	45	245/277/374	128	263	12	22	13%	4%	81	-0.1	244/271/325	81	269	4	13	10%	4%	67	-1.1	265/308/342	77	290	3	14	9%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Leo German 2016 · AAA	23	46→56	41→45	54→55	43	222/284/316	95	281	9	21	24%	6%	72	-0.7	264/304/353	89	348	6	27	25%	4%	86	+0.3	288/324/375	87	373	6	23	23%	4%	94	+0.5
✕Símon Muzziotti 2023 · AAA	24	48→57	44→40	55	48	235/293/358	123	288	11	16	22%	8%	84	+0.1	240/288/339	99	298	8	18	21%	6%	77	-0.3	244/290/334	89	302	7	20	20%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Santiago Perez 2001 · MLB	25	45→54	43→45	56→55	54	221/300/335	114	252	11	19	17%	9%	82	-0.0	227/317/331	104	301	10	18	25%	11%	88	+0.4	242/300/349	107	323	7	19	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Wilmer Difo 2015 · A	23	51→56	44→45	57→55	45	248/289/365	116	284	11	23	17%	5%	84	+0.1	251/289/351	100	306	7	23	20%	5%	80	-0.2	235/294/338	102	293	8	11	22%	7%	79	-0.1
✕José Rodríguez 2024 · AAA	23	47→54	47→50	56→55	40	240/272/375	134	290	15	28	23%	4%	80	-0.2	238/276/350	112	288	11	22	21%	5%	75	-0.5	255/293/345	89	297	7	25	16%	4%	78	-0.1
✕Christopher Bostick 2016 · AA	23	45→55	44→45	55	39	223/269/343	121	289	11	18	27%	5%	72	-0.7	237/286/343	106	313	7	11	25%	5%	78	-0.3	245/298/359	114	318	9	7	25%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Leody Taveras 2022 · MLB	23	42→52	47→50	55	44	213/274/352	139	281	14	22	29%	8%	76	-0.4	244/295/382	138	310	13	19	25%	7%	91	+0.6	251/301/382	131	311	12	20	23%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Liover Peguero 2024 · MLB	23	46→49	46→45	56→55	41	231/274/359	129	295	14	22	27%	6%	77	-0.3	220/273/339	119	298	12	16	29%	6%	72	-0.7	213/270/321	108	296	10	14	30%	7%	65	-0.9

Juan Matheus

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps