Juan Matheus — OGILVIE

Juan MatheusSS Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 S/R 5'9" / 155 lbs A+ HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION354 act + 236 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .291 / .343

PA236

HR5

SB9

K%22

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO122

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$9M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$39M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	142	22	6	2	2	26	55	3	15	7	155	298	268	566	113	233	32	15	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	252	444	472	917	220	322	22	24	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	40	7	1	1	0	9	16	0	11	3	175	327	250	577	75	280	32	18	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	257	469	371	841	114	360	22	28	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	—	214	187	40	7	1	3	22	52	3	12	7	214	307	310	617	96	276	24	10	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	—	214	175	53	11	1	5	34	34	3	12	7	303	425	463	887	160	348	16	16	396	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	520	459	94	26	2	3	49	136	4	40	11	205	287	290	577	85	277	26	9	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	520	444	122	32	2	3	64	96	4	40	11	275	371	376	747	101	337	18	12	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	MIA	—	354	320	74	10	2	11	23	73	4	15	2	231	291	378	669	147	263	21	6	288	79	-8	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.8
YTD	22	A+	MIA	—	354	310	85	12	2	13	33	55	4	15	2	274	352	452	803	177	293	16	9	351	127	+11	+2	+0	+4	+10	2.7
ROS	22	A+	MIA	0%	236	213	47	9	1	5	19	52	2	9	2	221	291	343	633	122	262	22	8	278	71	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						258	0	0	268	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	MIA	—	355	321	74	10	2	11	23	73	4	15	2	231	290	377	667	146	261	21	6	288	79	-8	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.8
TOT	22	A+	MIA	—	590	533	121	19	3	16	42	125	6	24	4	227	291	364	655	137	264	21	7	284	76	-16	+3	+0	+6	+17	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIA	35%	510	460	102	19	2	11	41	111	4	17	4	222	291	343	635	122	265	22	8	286	77	-13	+2	+0	+5	+14	0.9
2028	24	MLB	MIA	46%	547	492	111	21	2	13	45	118	5	18	4	226	297	356	653	130	268	22	8	293	82	-11	+2	+0	+6	+15	1.3
2029	25	MLB	MIA	52%	568	510	116	22	2	14	48	121	5	19	4	227	300	361	661	133	269	21	8	297	85	-9	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.5
2030	26	MLB	MIA	54%	578	519	120	22	3	15	49	124	5	19	4	231	304	372	676	141	270	21	8	299	87	-9	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.6
2031	27	MLB	MIA	54%	580	520	119	22	2	15	50	124	5	19	4	229	303	365	668	137	270	21	9	299	87	-9	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.7
2032	28	MLB	MIA	54%	577	517	117	22	2	14	50	125	5	18	4	226	301	358	659	132	270	22	9	298	86	-9	+2	-1	+6	+16	1.5
2033	29	MLB	MIA	53%	568	509	115	21	2	14	49	124	5	17	4	226	300	358	658	132	269	22	9	296	85	-10	+2	-1	+6	+16	1.3
2034	30	MLB	MIA	52%	558	499	112	21	2	13	49	123	5	15	3	224	300	353	653	128	268	22	9	294	83	-11	+2	-2	+6	+16	1.1
2035	31	MLB	MIA	52%	544	487	107	20	2	12	47	122	5	12	3	220	295	343	638	123	266	22	9	290	80	-12	+1	-3	+6	+15	0.7
2027	23	MLB	MIA	35%	176	158	35	6	1	4	14	38	2	6	1	222	293	348	641	127	261	22	8	275	69	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2028	24	MLB	MIA	46%	253	228	50	9	1	6	21	54	2	8	2	219	291	346	637	127	264	21	8	282	74	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2029	25	MLB	MIA	52%	294	264	59	11	1	7	25	63	3	10	2	223	298	352	650	129	265	21	9	286	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.5
2030	26	MLB	MIA	54%	314	281	64	12	1	8	27	67	3	10	2	228	302	363	665	135	265	21	9	287	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.6
2031	27	MLB	MIA	54%	315	282	64	12	1	8	27	68	3	10	2	227	301	362	663	135	265	22	9	288	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.6
2032	28	MLB	MIA	54%	313	280	63	12	1	8	27	68	3	10	2	225	300	361	661	136	265	22	9	287	78	-8	+1	-0	+3	+9	0.5
2033	29	MLB	MIA	53%	302	270	60	11	1	7	26	66	3	9	2	222	298	348	646	126	264	22	9	285	76	-8	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.4
2034	30	MLB	MIA	52%	293	262	58	11	1	7	26	65	3	8	2	221	299	351	650	130	263	22	9	283	75	-8	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.3
2035	31	MLB	MIA	52%	283	254	55	10	1	6	25	63	2	6	1	217	292	335	626	118	261	22	9	279	72	-9	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2544	2280	508	94	9	61	218	552	24	77	16	223	297	352	650	129	266	22	9	284	76	-70	+9	-4	+27	+72	3.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	130	24	2	16	56	141	6	20	4	223	298	353	651	130	266	22	9	284	76	-18	+2	-1	+7	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	6222	5554	1229	239	26	134	553	1403	56	241	64	221	298	346	644	125	270	23	9	289	80	-143	+23	-7	+67	+176	11.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	129	25	3	14	58	147	6	25	7	222	300	348	648	126	272	23	9	289	80	-15	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	172	127	32	10	3	4	41	37	3	15	7	252	444	472	917	220	322	22	24	409	171	+14	+0	—	—	+5	1.9
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	50	35	9	2	1	0	14	11	0	11	3	257	469	371	841	114	360	22	28	388	155	+3	+1	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	18	13	1	1	0	0	5	6	0	2	0	77	333	154	487	77	143	33	28	265	61	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	196	162	52	10	1	5	29	28	3	10	7	321	433	488	921	167	359	14	15	408	170	+16	-1	—	—	+6	2.1
2025	21	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	126	108	31	9	0	1	16	22	1	5	3	287	384	398	782	111	349	17	13	353	129	+4	-0	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	394	336	91	23	2	2	48	74	3	35	8	271	367	369	736	98	333	19	12	331	112	+5	+4	—	—	+11	2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#2Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#3Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,543	61	78	227	297	359	+27	+15	6.0	5.6
	/162	664	16	20	227	297	359	+7.1	+3.9	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Matheus (OGILVIE)	22	45	25	60	50	227/291/364	137	264	16	24	21%	7%	76	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	50→42	36→40	62→60	49	232/308/311	79	296	2	28	21%	8%	76	+0.0	207/277/276	69	268	2	17	21%	8%	54	-1.4	197/272/260	63	253	1	17	20%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→38	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	63	-0.9	207/276/283	76	320	2	18	33%	8%	55	-1.4	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	54	219/305/291	72	275	2	31	20%	10%	70	-0.3	206/278/275	69	280	3	16	25%	8%	54	-1.4	170/237/218	48	234	0	10	25%	7%	17	-1.1
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	46→50	41→40	56→60	46	222/287/330	108	287	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.2	217/282/308	91	288	7	26	25%	7%	65	-0.7	206/276/294	89	271	8	32	26%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	35→30	54→60	52	209/291/266	57	279	3	25	24%	10%	58	-1.2	222/308/290	68	293	2	20	22%	10%	71	-0.3	235/336/301	66	302	0	28	19%	12%	85	+0.3
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	62	-0.9	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Cliff Pennington 2006 · A	22	47→55	38→45	52→55	49	224/287/301	77	276	6	20	20%	8%	65	-0.7	217/287/297	80	267	5	16	19%	9%	63	-0.8	248/311/355	107	296	7	24	18%	8%	86	+0.8
✕Adrian Abreu 2013 · A	22	45	40	53→55	53	218/296/306	88	253	9	19	18%	9%	70	-0.3	203/280/285	82	264	6	13	23%	9%	58	-1.2	141/245/214	74	184	4	14	24%	11%	24	-0.7
✕Wilmer Difo 2014 · A	22	43→53	39→45	53→55	49	207/273/291	84	260	6	18	22%	8%	56	-1.3	246/284/355	109	296	9	24	19%	4%	76	+0.1	251/289/354	103	300	8	28	19%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	50→60	35→30	56→60	52	230/305/294	64	287	2	27	20%	9%	70	-0.3	235/323/292	57	302	2	27	20%	10%	78	+0.2	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Francisco Aponte 2012 · A	21	50	35→30	53→60	54	230/313/289	59	284	1	21	18%	9%	72	-0.2	210/265/278	68	267	2	11	20%	7%	49	-1.8	200/241/256	56	246	0	10	18%	5%	30	-1.1
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	48	40	65→60	45	228/274/334	105	272	6	27	18%	6%	66	-0.6	250/279/329	79	309	3	23	19%	4%	66	-0.6	280/299/338	58	344	0	29	18%	2%	72	-0.1
✕Cesar Diaz 2016 · A	23	51	39→40	58→50	57	239/316/336	97	268	4	23	12%	10%	85	+0.7	221/286/311	90	267	6	15	18%	8%	66	-0.6	215/274/295	80	255	7	15	18%	7%	54	-0.6
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	46	39→45	56→55	44	218/272/306	88	294	5	24	27%	7%	59	-1.1	219/277/324	105	287	8	20	25%	7%	66	-0.6	211/274/331	120	275	10	12	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Adenson Chourio 2008 · A	22	51	34→30	56→60	51	237/314/290	53	294	2	31	19%	8%	73	-0.1	229/289/269	40	306	1	26	23%	7%	56	-1.3	220/271/239	20	305	0	28	26%	6%	37	-1.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	44→54	40→45	57→55	44	209/274/306	96	292	6	21	29%	8%	60	-1.0	250/307/354	104	326	7	26	24%	7%	86	+0.8	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Fernando Garcia 2010 · A	22	47	36→30	53→55	50	217/293/288	71	286	3	21	24%	9%	64	-0.8	205/263/275	70	280	3	15	26%	6%	47	-1.9	164/203/200	36	230	0	15	27%	3%	-1	-1.8
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2013 · A	21	47	39→40	52→55	53	221/300/312	92	270	6	17	20%	9%	73	-0.1	215/283/307	92	280	7	10	24%	8%	65	-0.7	213/265/281	67	285	5	7	26%	5%	45	-0.8
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	50	35→30	58→55	54	229/334/291	63	272	2	18	15%	9%	85	+0.7	227/322/287	60	279	2	18	18%	8%	78	+0.2	232/325/276	44	287	0	25	17%	7%	72	-0.1