Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026
22
A
Salem RidgeYaks
—
444
369
95
15
3
11
65
126
6
54
8
257
377
404
781
146
356
28
15
352
65
—
—
—
—
—
—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026
22
AMLE
Salem RidgeYaks
—
444
390
76
11
2
8
44
171
6
54
8
195
286
295
581
100
313
39
10
265
65
—
—
—
—
—
—
2026
22
AMLE
Salem RidgeYaks
—
444
390
76
11
2
8
44
171
6
54
8
195
286
295
581
100
316
39
10
265
65
—
—
—
—
—
—
2026
22
ARAW
Salem RidgeYaks
—
444
369
95
15
3
11
65
126
6
54
8
257
377
404
781
146
356
28
15
352
65
—
—
—
—
—
—
2026
22
AMLE
Salem RidgeYaks
—
444
391
76
11
2
8
44
171
6
54
8
194
286
294
580
100
313
39
10
265
65
—
—
—
—
—
—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026
22
AMLE
Salem RidgeYaks
—
444
391
76
11
2
8
44
171
6
54
8
194
286
294
580
100
313
39
10
265
65
—
—
—
—
—
—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027
23
MLBMLE
BOS
0%
554
489
96
17
3
10
54
164
6
18
3
197
284
307
591
110
269
30
10
270
69
-20
+2
+0
-3
+12
-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028
24
MLBMLE
BOS
30%
396
351
71
13
2
8
38
115
4
13
2
201
287
317
604
116
271
29
10
276
73
-13
+2
+0
-2
+9
-0.5
2029
25
MLBMLE
BOS
44%
443
393
79
14
2
9
43
127
4
14
3
204
290
324
614
120
272
29
10
279
75
-13
+2
+0
-3
+10
-0.5
2028
24
MLBCTX
BOS
30%
119
105
22
4
1
2
12
35
1
4
1
206
292
324
616
118
280
29
10
281
73
-4
+0
+0
-1
+3
-0.2
2029
25
MLBCTX
BOS
44%
196
173
36
7
1
4
19
56
2
6
1
209
295
331
626
122
281
29
10
284
75
-6
+1
+0
-1
+4
-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
A+C
—
315
278
58
11
2
6
31
91
3
10
2
209
295
327
622
119
284
29
10
283
71
-10
+1
+0
-2
+7
-0.4
/ 162G
—
A+C
—
650
574
119
23
4
12
64
188
6
21
4
207
293
324
618
117
283
29
10
283
71
-20
+2
+0
-4
+14
-0.7
Career
—
MLE
—
1493
1320
263
45
7
29
145
475
16
88
14
199
286
310
596
111
284
32
10
273
71
-34
+4
+0
-6
+23
-1.3
/ 162G
—
MLE
—
650
575
115
20
3
13
63
207
7
38
6
200
287
313
600
113
284
32
10
273
71
-21
+3
+0
-4
+14
-0.8
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .347 → .265; ISO .146 → .109; BABIP .356 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 1,717 completed hitter careers (533 from 2001-2025 + 1,184 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: slash era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels (actual on hover); WAR, POS and FLD are OGILVIE proxies.
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
0.8
525
10
17
201
284
317
-3
+0
-0.3
-0.2
/162
664
13
22
-4.0
+0.0
-0.4
pk7: 0
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection