Max Ferguson
2B Portland Sea Dogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 178 | .193/.309/.313 | 4 | 9 | 57 | — | .118/.194/.200 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AABOS | 460 | .205/.324/.313 | 9 | 34 | 41 | — | .173/.256/.246 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AABOS | 368 | .232/.334/.389 | 11 | 15 | 57 | — | .189/.262/.302 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBBOS | 3 | .200/.275/.304 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBBOS | 60 | .201/.275/.305 | 1 | 2 | 62 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 58 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 170 | 328 | 255 | 583 | 85 | 296 | 34 | 16 | 284 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 94 | 71 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 239 | 419 | 324 | 743 | 85 | 340 | 23 | 23 | 351 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 220 | 177 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 57 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 169 | 316 | 305 | 621 | 136 | 220 | 26 | 16 | 286 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 307 | 239 | 59 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 61 | 70 | 3 | 51 | 4 | 247 | 406 | 364 | 770 | 117 | 333 | 23 | 20 | 354 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 366 | 308 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 57 | 102 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 234 | 355 | 347 | 703 | 114 | 333 | 28 | 16 | 325 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 94 | 82 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 159 | 258 | 293 | 551 | 134 | 189 | 29 | 12 | 252 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 84 | 68 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 366 | 338 | 704 | 103 | 306 | 24 | 17 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 61 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 279 | 343 | 459 | 802 | 180 | 357 | 25 | 9 | 350 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 392 | 325 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 59 | 85 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 191 | 320 | 286 | 607 | 95 | 235 | 22 | 15 | 284 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 136 | 120 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 280 | 308 | 589 | 100 | 262 | 26 | 9 | 262 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 232 | 194 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 59 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 247 | 365 | 438 | 803 | 191 | 312 | 25 | 15 | 357 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 58 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 120 | 241 | 180 | 421 | 60 | 261 | 50 | 10 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 94 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 163 | 280 | 225 | 505 | 62 | 251 | 34 | 14 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 220 | 191 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 136 | 233 | 246 | 479 | 110 | 176 | 32 | 10 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 307 | 259 | 47 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 98 | 3 | 51 | 4 | 181 | 300 | 259 | 559 | 77 | 274 | 32 | 13 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 366 | 332 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 136 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 169 | 246 | 247 | 493 | 78 | 272 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 94 | 85 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 118 | 194 | 200 | 394 | 82 | 163 | 34 | 9 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 222 | 269 | 333 | 602 | 111 | 310 | 29 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 392 | 346 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 106 | 3 | 31 | 7 | 165 | 253 | 231 | 484 | 66 | 217 | 27 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 136 | 124 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 169 | 220 | 234 | 454 | 65 | 227 | 31 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 232 | 205 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 72 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 200 | 287 | 341 | 628 | 141 | 270 | 31 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 130 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 61 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 138 | 258 | 185 | 443 | 46 | 257 | 40 | 12 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 152 | 118 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 42 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 212 | 384 | 297 | 681 | 85 | 325 | 28 | 20 | 325 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 527 | 450 | 73 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 169 | 6 | 61 | 5 | 162 | 272 | 253 | 526 | 91 | 240 | 32 | 12 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 527 | 416 | 89 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 96 | 127 | 6 | 61 | 5 | 214 | 369 | 339 | 708 | 125 | 287 | 24 | 18 | 325 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 366 | 332 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 136 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 169 | 246 | 247 | 493 | 78 | 271 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 366 | 308 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 57 | 102 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 234 | 355 | 347 | 703 | 114 | 333 | 28 | 16 | 325 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 161 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 130 | 200 | 224 | 424 | 93 | 170 | 34 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 178 | 150 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 47 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 193 | 309 | 313 | 622 | 120 | 245 | 26 | 14 | 285 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 409 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 126 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 174 | 256 | 247 | 502 | 73 | 234 | 27 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 386 | 79 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 102 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 205 | 324 | 313 | 637 | 109 | 254 | 22 | 14 | 294 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 329 | 63 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 191 | 265 | 307 | 572 | 116 | 262 | 31 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 314 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 94 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 232 | 334 | 389 | 723 | 156 | 292 | 26 | 12 | 322 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 130 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 61 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 138 | 258 | 185 | 443 | 46 | 255 | 40 | 12 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 527 | 454 | 73 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 169 | 6 | 61 | 5 | 161 | 272 | 251 | 523 | 90 | 233 | 32 | 12 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 366 | 329 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 136 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 170 | 246 | 249 | 495 | 79 | 272 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 162 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 130 | 200 | 222 | 422 | 93 | 163 | 34 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 412 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 126 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 172 | 256 | 245 | 501 | 73 | 231 | 27 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 332 | 63 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 190 | 265 | 304 | 569 | 114 | 254 | 31 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 162 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 130 | 200 | 222 | 422 | 93 | 163 | 34 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 412 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 126 | 3 | 34 | 7 | 172 | 256 | 245 | 501 | 73 | 231 | 27 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 332 | 63 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 190 | 265 | 304 | 569 | 114 | 254 | 31 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 2% | 380 | 342 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 108 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 195 | 270 | 298 | 568 | 103 | 259 | 28 | 9 | 259 | 62 | -17 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 275 | 304 | 579 | 105 | 267 | 33 | 0 | 264 | 62 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 27% | 222 | 200 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 63 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 195 | 271 | 298 | 569 | 103 | 259 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 27% | 60 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 201 | 275 | 305 | 581 | 105 | 268 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 62 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 60 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 91 | 270 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 46 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 184 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 201 | 268 | 294 | 561 | 92 | 272 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 46 | -29 | +4 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2428 | 2150 | 368 | 60 | 13 | 35 | 234 | 773 | 16 | 176 | 27 | 171 | 258 | 260 | 518 | 89 | 246 | 32 | 10 | 236 | 46 | -17 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 98 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 207 | 4 | 47 | 7 | 170 | 257 | 255 | 512 | 85 | 245 | 32 | 10 | 236 | 46 | -30 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 232 PAwOBA .350 → .278 (−72)K% 25.4% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .350 → .278; ISO .191 → .150; BABIP .312 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 136 PAwOBA .259 → .208 (−51)K% 25.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.951 | ×1.003 | 19.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.951 | ×1.003 | 2.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.951 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .259 → .208; ISO .100 → .073; BABIP .262 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 392 PAwOBA .277 → .222 (−55)K% 21.7% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.68% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.80% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.17% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 2.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.141 | ×0.950 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.01% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .277 → .222; ISO .095 → .069; BABIP .235 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 68 PAwOBA .341 → .276 (−64)K% 25.0% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.042 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.060 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 9.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 103, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .341 → .276; ISO .180 → .141; BABIP .357 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 94 PAwOBA .249 → .192 (−57)K% 28.7% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.72% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.55% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .249 → .192; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .189 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 366 PAwOBA .318 → .227 (−90)K% 27.9% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.87% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.57% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.025 | ×0.988 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.77% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×1.025 | ×0.988 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.025 | ×0.988 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.43% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .318 → .227; ISO .114 → .090; BABIP .333 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 307 PAwOBA .347 → .263 (−84)K% 22.8% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.80% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.54% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 13.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.85% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 21.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 2.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.78% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .263; ISO .117 → .092; BABIP .333 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 220 PAwOBA .282 → .211 (−71)K% 25.9% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.91% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.91% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.17% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 11.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .282 → .211; ISO .136 → .115; BABIP .220 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .