Brady Parker

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#439ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACOL	26	16	112	3.61	2.75	31.0%	11.8%	—	K 22.9% · BB 13.9% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.76	4.76	23.0%	13.5%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	5	5	37	4.82	4.74	23.5%	11.9%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	8	8	53	4.68	4.60	23.7%	10.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 6.2, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 87%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Nate Peterson (age 23) · Jimmy Robbins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 124

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%23.0%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	26	16	112	491	152	58	7	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	26	16	112	491	152	58	7	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	26	16	112	491	152	58	7	62%	4.3	31.0%	11.8%	19.1%	1.4%	3.61	2.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	13.5%	9.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	86	361	85	43	10	100%	7.1	23.5%	11.9%	11.5%	2.7%	4.59	4.51	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	80	337	80	37	9	100%	7.2	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.45	4.37	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	78	330	79	35	9	100%	7.1	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.34	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	76	320	76	34	9	100%	6.9	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.37	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	72	304	72	33	9	100%	7.2	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	67	282	66	31	9	100%	6.7	23.4%	11.1%	12.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.59	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	60	255	59	29	8	100%	6.7	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.67	4.77	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	8	8	54	227	51	27	8	100%	6.7	22.7%	11.7%	10.9%	3.5%	4.85	4.97	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	37	156	37	19	5	100%	7.4	23.5%	11.9%	11.5%	3.2%	4.82	4.74	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	53	224	53	24	7	100%	6.6	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	3.2%	4.68	4.60	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	62	262	62	28	8	100%	6.9	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.57	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	65	274	65	29	9	100%	7.2	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.61	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	64	270	64	29	9	100%	7.1	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	3.4%	4.67	4.70	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	61	258	60	29	9	100%	6.8	23.4%	11.1%	12.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.85	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	56	236	55	27	9	100%	7.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.8%	4.94	5.04	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	50	211	48	25	8	100%	7.1	22.7%	11.7%	10.9%	4.0%	5.14	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	447	1886	443	209	65	100%	7.0	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.41	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	198	94	29	100%	7.0	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.41	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		26	16	112	491	112	68	9	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	28	200	874	200	122	16	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 112 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.95 (+1.18)K% 31.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.96%	—	×0.740	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.81%	—	×1.180	13.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	23.0%	13.5%	2.7%	—	4.41	23.7%	12.5%	243	-0.35	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	87
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	85
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	84
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	83
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	82
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	81
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	81
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	80
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.59	22.7%	11.1%	206	+0.97	2.87	286	80
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	78
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	78
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	78
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	77
Ixan Henderson L 2024 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP-	3.77	18.1%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.50	3.27	236	77
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	77
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	76
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	72	23.4%	11.4%	1.13	4.55
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Jeff Parrett ('86-'96, 6 WAR*)	3.6	72	24.8%*	11.0%*	1.02*	4.07*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Ricky Bottalico ('05)	3.1	63	21.1%	11.6%	1.02	3.99
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*