Brady Parker — OGILVIE

Brady Parker P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%23.2%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	26	16	112	491	152	58	7	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	26	16	112	491	152	58	7	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	COL	26	16	112	491	152	58	7	62%	4.3	31.0%	11.8%	19.1%	1.4%	3.61	2.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	114	482	115	52	14	100%	7.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	2.9%	4.52	4.44	+0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	117	494	120	49	14	100%	6.9	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.29	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	118	500	122	48	14	100%	7.0	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.20	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	118	500	123	47	14	100%	7.0	24.6%	9.4%	15.2%	2.9%	4.21	4.18	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	117	493	121	47	14	100%	6.9	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	113	478	117	46	14	100%	7.1	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	108	456	111	45	15	100%	7.2	24.2%	9.9%	14.4%	3.2%	4.36	4.43	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	102	429	103	44	14	100%	7.3	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.4%	4.51	4.61	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	95	400	94	42	14	100%	7.3	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.6%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	88	370	85	40	14	100%	7.3	23.1%	10.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.90	5.03	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	56	236	56	26	8	100%	7.0	23.8%	10.8%	13.0%	3.4%	4.76	4.68	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	82	346	84	35	12	100%	6.8	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.3%	4.61	4.53	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	96	405	99	39	13	100%	6.9	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.44	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	104	439	108	41	15	100%	6.9	24.6%	9.4%	15.2%	3.3%	4.45	4.42	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	105	443	109	42	15	100%	7.0	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	3.4%	4.46	4.46	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	104	439	108	42	15	100%	6.9	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	3.5%	4.51	4.55	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	101	426	103	42	16	100%	7.2	24.2%	9.9%	14.4%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	95	401	96	41	16	100%	6.8	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	3.9%	4.79	4.89	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	90	380	89	40	16	100%	6.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	4.2%	4.99	5.11	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	83	350	81	38	16	100%	6.9	23.1%	10.9%	12.1%	4.4%	5.22	5.35	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	916	3867	933	386	140	100%	7.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.32	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	204	84	31	100%	7.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		26	16	112	491	112	68	9	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	28	200	874	200	122	16	62%	4.3	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.61	3.95	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	23.2%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.31	24.2%	14.1%	350	-0.37	—	—	—
Bryan Sammons L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP-	3.58	22.7%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	3.96	18.4%	8.4%	228	+0.38	3.58	688	78
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	76
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	76
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	74
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	73
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	72
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	71
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	71
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	70
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	70
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	70
Rafael Marcano L 2022 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	18.8%	12.2%	2.4%	.349	4.28	18.5%	5.3%	137	-0.10	3.38	291	70
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	70
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	206	+1.00	2.87	286	70
Eric Dominguez L 2023 · 4.28 FIP	20	SP-	4.28	24.3%	16.1%	2.2%	.371	4.07	20.4%	7.5%	85	-0.21	3.81	140	70
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	69
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	69
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	69
Carlos Peña L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.0%	6.3%	2.9%	.271	3.95	18.3%	8.2%	309	-0.11	3.17	620	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	101	24.1%	10.0%	1.21	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45