Ixan Henderson
P
Springfield Cardinals
+1.6
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.0 · 2028
ERA4.16
FIP4.16
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%10.9%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 22 | 17 | 104 | 433 | 105 | 41 | 5 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 2.34 | 3.76 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 132 | 532 | 134 | 51 | 5 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 1.0% | 2.59 | 3.27 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 107 | 52 | 11 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 122 | 54 | 12 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 4.12 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 129 | 56 | 13 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 132 | 56 | 14 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +2.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 132 | 56 | 14 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 128 | 56 | 14 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 123 | 54 | 14 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 117 | 53 | 14 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 111 | 52 | 14 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 105 | 50 | 14 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 98 | 49 | 14 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 90 | 47 | 13 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 83 | 45 | 13 | 19.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 75 | 43 | 13 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 42 | 240 | 981 | 192 | 108 | 12 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 2.44 | 3.49 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 819 | 160 | 90 | 10 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 2.44 | 3.49 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ixan Henderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 2.1% | — | 4.08 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 417 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 93 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 90 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 90 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 89 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 89 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 87 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 427 | 86 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 86 |
| Gage Jump L 2024 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 86 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 85 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 85 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.43 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.88 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.45 | 3.43 | 248 | 85 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 85 |
| Brandyn Garcia L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.28 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.1% | .289 | 4.26 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 59 | +0.98 | 3.28 | 175 | 85 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.87 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.12 | 3.56 | 280 | 84 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 84 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.27 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 282 | 84 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 84 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 329 | 84 |
| Marco Tovar L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$17M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $15M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $13M | +$7M |
| Totals | $18M | $95M | +$77M | ||