Ixan Henderson — OGILVIE

Ixan Henderson P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%20.1%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL—50

CMD4050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.63	—
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.63	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.65	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	18.1%	11.1%	7.0%	1.5%	2.34	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	18.1%	11.1%	7.0%	1.5%	2.34	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	24.2%	9.5%	14.8%	1.2%	2.34	2.89	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	1.0%	2.59	3.27	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	1.0%	2.59	3.27	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	25.2%	9.6%	15.6%	0.9%	2.59	2.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	—	—	—	—	4.61	—	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	—	—	—	—	4.61	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	STL	2	1	2	13	0	3	0	50%	0.8	0.0%	23.1%	-23.1%	0.0%	21.60	6.02	—
2026	24	A RAW	STL	2	2	7	26	9	3	1	100%	3.6	34.6%	11.5%	23.1%	3.8%	3.68	3.75	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	STL	1	1	5	17	0	4	0	100%	4.7	0.0%	23.5%	-23.5%	0.0%	0.00	6.08	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	1	1	7	31	6	3	1	100%	7.2	20.1%	10.4%	9.6%	2.2%	4.29	4.29	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	21	87	15	13	2	—	—	17.5%	15.2%	2.2%	1.9%	4.50	1.49	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	120	508	105	49	11	100%	5.7	20.6%	9.7%	11.0%	2.2%	4.22	4.18	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	120	508	106	48	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.5%	11.5%	2.3%	4.19	4.16	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	118	500	105	47	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.21	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	115	485	101	46	12	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.5%	4.25	4.29	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	110	463	96	45	12	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.35	4.42	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	435	88	44	12	100%	6.1	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	96	406	81	42	12	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	3.1%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	89	375	73	41	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.3%	4.89	5.03	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	51	215	44	21	4	100%	5.7	20.6%	9.7%	11.0%	2.1%	4.13	4.09	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	71	32	7	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.5%	11.5%	2.1%	4.10	4.07	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	92	388	81	37	9	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	2.2%	4.11	4.12	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	86	39	9	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	2.3%	4.15	4.19	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	96	405	84	40	10	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	2.4%	4.25	4.32	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	93	393	80	40	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.49	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	88	372	74	39	11	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.56	4.68	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	82	346	67	38	11	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.8%	8.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	113	678	2863	586	284	71	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	2.5%	4.31	3.99	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	84	21	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	2.5%	4.31	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		56	46	253	1037	201	118	13	82%	4.5	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	2.56	3.58	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	819	159	93	10	82%	4.5	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	2.56	3.58	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ixan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	20.1%	10.4%	2.2%	—	4.18	20.9%	11.3%	359	-0.11	—	—	—
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	88
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	87
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	85
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	85
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	84
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	84
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	83
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	82
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	82
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	82
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	80
Michael Prosecky L 2023 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	20.4%	10.7%	1.0%	.293	4.73	18.3%	4.9%	176	+1.47	3.26	285	80
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	79
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	79
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	79
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	106	20.5%	9.9%	0.99	4.38
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12