Ixan Henderson

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP40OGV rank#374ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	22	17	104	2.34	2.89	24.2%	9.5%	—	K 18.1% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.77
2025	23	AASTL	25	25	132	2.59	2.72	25.2%	9.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.27
2026	24	MIX3 levels	5	4	14	4.61	4.93	16.1%	17.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 17.9% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.42	4.42	20.3%	10.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSTL	7	7	42	4.29	4.28	20.7%	10.0%	0.5
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	9	9	56	4.30	4.31	20.8%	9.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHayden Mullins (age 23) · Dalton Sawyer (age 23) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%20.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.2M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.63	—
2023	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	16	5	4	0	0%	0.9	31.2%	25.0%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.65	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	18.1%	11.1%	7.0%	1.5%	2.34	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	18.1%	11.1%	7.0%	1.5%	2.34	3.77	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	104	433	105	41	5	77%	4.7	24.2%	9.5%	14.8%	1.2%	2.34	2.89	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	1.0%	2.59	3.27	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	1.0%	2.59	3.27	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	132	532	134	51	5	100%	5.3	25.2%	9.6%	15.6%	0.9%	2.59	2.72	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.61	4.98	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.61	4.98	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	4	14	56	9	10	1	80%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.61	4.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	2.5%	4.42	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	97	411	85	41	10	100%	6.1	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	2.5%	4.39	4.38	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	89	374	78	37	10	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	2.6%	4.40	4.41	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	83	349	72	35	10	100%	5.9	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.45	4.49	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	76	322	66	33	9	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.61	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	69	291	59	30	9	100%	6.3	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.1%	4.69	4.79	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	61	259	51	28	9	100%	6.1	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.3%	4.87	4.99	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	42	177	37	18	4	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.0%	10.7%	2.3%	4.29	4.28	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	56	236	49	23	6	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.9%	10.9%	2.4%	4.30	4.31	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	54	26	7	100%	6.2	20.7%	10.0%	10.8%	2.5%	4.35	4.39	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	62	262	54	26	7	100%	6.2	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.7%	4.43	4.50	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	59	249	50	26	7	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.57	4.67	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	54	228	45	25	7	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.86	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	335	1413	289	144	38	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.13	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	86	23	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		56	46	253	1037	201	118	13	82%	4.5	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	2.56	3.58	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	819	159	93	10	82%	4.5	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	2.56	3.58	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 7 IPFIP 3.75 → 5.41 (+1.66)K% 34.6% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.62%	—	×0.740	25.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.180	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.300	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 132 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.27 (+0.57)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.19%	—	×0.810	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.100	10.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.105	×1.200	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 73 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.26 (+0.88)K% 26.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.33%	—	×0.740	19.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.00%	—	×1.180	10.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.84%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Peoria Chiefs · 31 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.92 (+0.90)K% 19.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.55%	—	×0.770	15.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.150	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷0.993	×1.250	2.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ixan Henderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.42	20.7%	10.8%	269	+0.00	—	—	—
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	85
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	83
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	83
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	82
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	82
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	80
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	79
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	78
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Seth Lonsway L 2024 · 3.35 FIP	25	SP	3.35	16.0%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	4.52	15.2%	3.1%	226	+1.17	3.35	506	77
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	77
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	77
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	77
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	77
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	77
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	80	20.5%	10.2%	1.07	4.51
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*