Ixan Henderson
P
FCL Cardinals
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION1 act + 86 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 116
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
K%20.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP86
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 25.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.63 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 25.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.65 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 104 | 433 | 105 | 41 | 5 | 77% | 4.7 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 2.34 | 3.76 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 17 | 104 | 433 | 105 | 41 | 5 | 77% | 4.7 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 1.2% | 2.34 | 2.89 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 132 | 532 | 134 | 51 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 0.9% | 2.59 | 3.22 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 25 | 132 | 532 | 134 | 51 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 0.9% | 2.59 | 2.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 82 | 0 | 86 | 363 | 73 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 4.26 | 4.26 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 87 | 368 | 73 | 40 | 8 | — | — | 19.8% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 2.1% | 4.33 | 4.23 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 87 | 367 | 76 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 77 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 86 | 362 | 76 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 351 | 73 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 79 | 335 | 76 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 315 | 70 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.31 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 64 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 58 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 52 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 32 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 51 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | STL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 91 | 546 | 2305 | 495 | 220 | 63 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.99 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 81 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 42 | 240 | 986 | 192 | 110 | 11 | 81% | 4.6 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 1.1% | 2.47 | 3.49 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 35 | 200 | 821 | 160 | 92 | 9 | 81% | 4.6 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 1.1% | 2.47 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ixan Henderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 2.1% | — | 4.16 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 260 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 89 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 87 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 86 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 85 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 84 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 82 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 82 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 82 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 82 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .295 | 3.97 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 40 | +0.24 | 3.73 | 245 | 81 |
| Brandyn Garcia L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.39 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.3% | .289 | 3.76 | 25.6% | 13.5% | 95 | +0.37 | 2.37 | 211 | 81 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 80 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 5.09 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 76 | +0.78 | 2.69 | 318 | 80 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.80 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.89 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.09 | 3.73 | 280 | 80 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.44 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.80 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.36 | 3.44 | 248 | 80 |
| Aríel Miranda L 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.38 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 0.9% | .280 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 364 | +2.03 | 3.38 | 431 | 79 |
| Grant Watson L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 180 | 79 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .303 | 5.56 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +2.01 | 3.08 | 517 | 79 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 79 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .276 | 2.79 | 21.0% | 16.1% | 87 | -0.69 | 2.79 | 219 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 78 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 1.01 | 4.31 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Matt Moore ('24) | 8 | 98 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 1.33 | 4.82 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |