David Shirley

SS DSL Miami

Age 19 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIA	90	.286/.389/.468	3	4	50	—	.200/.289/.288
2026	18	ROKDSL Miami	149	.318/.396/.447	2	11	51	—	.204/.268/.277
2027PROJ0% MLB	19	MLBMIA	259	.226/.289/.313	3	5	71	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIA	73	.222/.287/.311	1	2	75	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIA	165	.225/.291/.320	2	4	79	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed93

K%73

wOBA68

Z-Con%65

wRC+60

ISO56

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJonathan Ornelas (age 19) · Jett Williams (age 19) · Cristofer Torin (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 124 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .286 / .310

PA124

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 59 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT59

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	149	132	42	5	3	2	16	25	1	11	2	318	396	447	843	129	381	17	11	378	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	224	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	137	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	204	268	277	546	73	256	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	246	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	137	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	204	268	277	546	73	257	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	149	132	42	5	3	2	16	25	1	11	2	318	396	447	843	129	381	17	11	378	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	224	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	136	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	206	268	279	548	74	256	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	224	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	136	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	206	268	279	548	74	256	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	259	236	54	8	3	3	19	64	2	5	1	226	289	313	601	87	295	25	7	273	71	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	211	192	44	6	2	3	15	51	2	5	1	229	294	324	618	95	297	24	7	279	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	341	309	72	11	3	5	25	82	4	8	2	232	297	333	631	102	297	24	7	285	79	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	435	394	92	14	4	7	33	104	5	10	3	234	300	341	642	107	298	24	8	289	82	-9	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	498	452	106	16	5	8	38	118	5	12	3	236	302	348	650	112	298	24	8	293	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	539	487	116	18	5	10	41	128	6	13	3	237	304	353	657	116	299	24	8	296	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.0
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	563	509	121	19	5	10	43	133	6	13	3	237	305	354	659	117	299	24	8	296	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	575	520	124	19	5	11	44	136	6	14	4	237	304	354	659	117	299	24	8	296	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+12	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	579	524	123	19	5	10	44	138	6	14	4	236	304	352	655	115	298	24	8	295	86	-10	+1	+0	+6	+13	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	576	521	123	19	5	10	44	138	6	13	3	235	302	347	649	113	298	24	8	292	84	-11	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	568	514	119	18	5	9	43	138	6	12	4	233	299	342	641	109	297	24	8	289	82	-12	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	558	506	117	18	5	9	42	137	5	11	4	230	296	334	630	104	295	25	8	284	79	-14	+1	-2	+6	+12	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	545	495	112	17	4	8	40	136	5	9	4	226	291	325	616	99	293	25	7	279	75	-16	+0	-3	+6	+12	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	73	67	15	2	1	1	5	18	1	2	0	222	287	311	598	89	288	25	7	272	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	165	150	33	5	1	2	12	40	2	4	1	225	291	320	611	95	288	24	7	277	79	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	236	213	48	7	2	3	18	57	3	6	1	227	294	327	621	100	289	24	8	281	82	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	282	256	58	8	2	5	21	67	3	7	2	229	296	333	629	105	289	24	7	284	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	305	276	63	9	3	5	23	72	3	7	2	230	298	338	636	108	290	24	8	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	318	288	66	10	3	5	24	75	3	8	2	230	298	339	637	109	290	24	8	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	325	293	68	10	3	6	25	77	4	8	2	230	298	339	637	109	290	24	8	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	321	290	67	10	3	5	25	76	3	7	2	229	297	337	634	108	289	24	8	286	86	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	316	286	65	9	3	5	24	76	3	7	2	228	295	333	628	105	289	24	8	284	84	-6	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	304	275	62	9	2	5	23	74	3	6	2	226	293	327	620	102	288	24	8	281	82	-7	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	294	267	58	8	2	4	22	72	3	6	2	223	289	321	610	98	287	24	7	276	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	308	279	61	9	2	4	23	77	3	5	2	219	285	312	597	93	284	25	7	271	75	-9	+0	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3247	2940	664	96	27	50	245	781	34	73	20	226	293	328	621	102	289	24	8	282	81	-67	+7	-4	+35	+70	4.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	132	19	5	10	49	156	7	15	4	224	292	324	616	100	286	24	8	282	81	-13	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6351	5753	1338	203	57	103	480	1519	66	152	42	233	299	341	640	109	297	24	8	288	81	-129	+12	-7	+65	+132	7.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	138	21	6	11	49	155	7	16	4	234	301	346	647	112	298	24	8	288	81	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Billy Urbanski'31-'37 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,345 PA	5.0	3,345	19	24	237*	300*	353*	+32	+2	7.1	7.1
/162	664	4	5	+6.5	+0.4	1.4	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.1	3,370	55	75	235	298	345	+36	+21	6.7	5.9
/162	664	11	15	+7.1	+4.1	1.3	pk7: 5
#6Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Shirley (OGILVIE)	19	54→59	34→39	54→59	54	224/286/310	87	295	1	3	25%	7%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	219/282/318	99	308	7	14	30%	8%	70	-0.8	209/265/301	92	294	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Cooper Pratt 2024 · A	19	49→52	37→40	54→55	41	226/288/305	78	332	4	11	31%	6%	70	-0.9	228/299/323	95	293	8	23	23%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/324	95	284	8	29	21%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Tim Lopes 2013 · A	19	48→58	37→45	55	47	222/273/314	92	274	2	8	19%	6%	65	-1.2	233/277/307	74	298	3	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	267/317/348	81	330	3	20	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Ryan Brett 2011 · A	19	47→57	37→45	54→60	42	219/270/295	76	299	3	17	26%	6%	60	-1.6	240/286/340	100	292	6	24	19%	6%	76	-0.4	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	50→59	42→45	53→60	43	241/287/350	109	301	9	12	23%	5%	80	-0.2	253/301/351	98	299	7	24	17%	5%	84	+0.2	270/312/373	104	312	8	35	15%	5%	91	+0.6
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	51→58	34→40	50→55	44	236/285/290	53	305	2	14	22%	6%	64	-1.3	241/294/285	44	301	1	9	19%	6%	67	-1.1	265/312/343	78	301	6	21	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	54	217/290/290	73	257	3	13	16%	9%	67	-1.1	237/295/343	106	326	11	30	28%	7%	81	-0.1	250/307/357	107	337	11	39	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Jefferson Rojas 2024 · A	19	45→48	41→50	52→50	43	221/283/322	101	279	9	15	24%	6%	72	-0.7	222/283/337	115	269	12	16	21%	7%	76	-0.4	225/287/358	133	263	15	18	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	50→57	40→45	53→55	44	237/287/335	98	286	6	14	19%	5%	76	-0.4	245/302/345	100	311	7	14	22%	7%	84	+0.1	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	212/278/299	87	312	7	9	32%	8%	65	-1.2	240/287/333	93	302	8	17	22%	5%	76	-0.4	268/325/364	96	311	7	12	15%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0

David Shirley

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps