David Shirley — OGILVIE

David ShirleySS DSL Miami

Age 18 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION149 act + 14 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.154 / .214 / .154

PA14

HR0

K%21

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$39M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$14M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	145	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	81	18	2	1	2	7	21	2	4	1	222	300	346	646	123	266	23	8	268	68	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	81	18	2	1	2	7	21	2	4	1	222	300	346	646	123	276	23	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	81	18	2	1	2	7	21	2	4	1	222	300	346	646	123	266	23	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	81	18	2	1	2	7	21	2	4	1	222	300	346	646	123	266	23	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	MIA	—	149	138	31	3	2	1	10	36	1	11	2	225	282	297	579	72	297	24	7	271	70	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	MIA	—	149	132	42	5	3	2	16	25	1	11	2	318	396	447	843	129	381	17	11	378	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	MIA	0%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		293	21	7	274	72	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	MIA	—	163	151	33	3	2	1	11	39	1	11	2	219	276	285	561	66	288	24	7	271	70	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	214	195	45	7	2	3	15	52	2	5	1	231	292	333	626	103	298	24	7	287	81	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	348	315	74	11	3	6	26	83	4	8	2	235	301	346	647	111	299	24	7	294	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	449	407	97	15	4	9	34	106	5	11	2	238	305	361	666	123	299	24	8	299	88	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	520	470	114	17	5	11	39	122	6	13	2	243	309	370	679	128	300	23	8	302	90	-6	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	567	512	124	19	5	12	43	133	7	14	3	242	310	369	679	127	301	23	8	303	91	-6	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	598	540	132	20	6	13	46	139	7	14	3	244	312	376	688	131	301	23	8	305	92	-5	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	616	556	135	20	6	13	47	143	8	15	3	243	311	371	681	128	301	23	8	305	93	-5	+2	+0	+7	+13	1.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	624	563	137	21	6	13	48	145	8	15	3	243	312	371	683	128	301	23	8	306	93	-5	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	625	563	136	20	6	13	49	146	8	15	3	242	311	368	679	126	301	23	8	306	93	-5	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.7
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	620	558	135	20	6	13	49	146	8	15	3	242	312	369	681	127	301	24	8	305	92	-6	+2	-1	+7	+13	1.6
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	58%	611	549	132	20	5	13	49	145	8	14	3	240	312	366	678	126	300	24	8	303	91	-6	+2	-1	+7	+13	1.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	60%	600	540	128	19	5	12	48	144	7	13	3	237	308	357	665	120	299	24	8	300	89	-8	+1	-2	+6	+13	1.1
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	62%	586	527	124	18	5	11	47	142	7	13	2	235	306	351	657	116	297	24	8	297	87	-9	+2	-3	+6	+13	0.9
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIA	63%	568	511	118	17	5	10	45	140	7	12	2	231	302	342	644	112	295	25	8	291	83	-11	+2	-4	+6	+12	0.5
2041	33	MLB MLE	MIA	63%	538	485	109	15	4	9	42	135	6	11	2	225	295	328	622	103	291	25	8	285	79	-13	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.1
2042	34	MLB MLE	MIA	59%	491	444	98	13	4	8	38	127	6	9	2	221	291	322	613	101	287	26	8	277	74	-15	+1	-5	+5	+11	-0.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	74	68	15	2	1	1	5	18	1	2	0	221	284	324	607	103	290	24	7	273	81	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	169	152	36	5	2	3	13	41	2	4	1	237	305	355	661	118	291	24	8	279	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	244	221	51	7	2	5	18	58	3	6	1	231	298	348	646	118	292	24	7	283	88	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	294	266	63	9	3	6	22	69	4	7	1	237	305	361	666	124	292	23	7	285	90	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	326	294	69	10	3	6	25	76	4	8	2	235	303	350	654	116	293	23	8	287	91	-3	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.8
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	341	308	72	10	3	7	26	79	4	8	2	234	302	354	656	120	294	23	8	288	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	349	315	75	11	3	7	27	81	4	8	2	238	306	359	665	121	294	23	8	289	93	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	353	319	75	11	3	7	27	82	4	9	2	235	303	354	657	119	294	23	8	289	93	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	347	313	74	11	3	7	27	81	4	8	2	236	305	358	663	121	294	23	8	289	93	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.9
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	340	306	72	10	3	7	27	80	4	8	2	235	306	356	662	121	293	24	8	288	92	-3	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.9
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	58%	355	320	75	11	3	7	28	84	4	8	2	234	304	353	657	119	293	24	8	287	91	-4	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.8
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	60%	362	326	76	11	3	7	29	87	4	8	2	233	304	350	653	117	292	24	8	284	89	-5	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.7
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	62%	362	326	74	10	3	7	29	88	4	8	2	227	298	340	639	113	290	24	8	281	87	-6	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.5
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIA	63%	357	322	72	10	3	6	28	88	4	7	1	224	294	329	623	106	288	25	8	276	83	-7	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.3
2041	33	MLB CTX	MIA	63%	342	308	69	9	3	6	27	86	4	7	1	224	295	331	626	107	284	25	8	270	79	-9	+1	-3	+4	+7	0.1
2042	34	MLB CTX	MIA	59%	290	262	55	7	2	4	23	75	3	5	1	210	281	298	579	88	280	26	8	263	74	-9	+1	-3	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4905	4426	1023	144	43	93	381	1173	57	111	24	231	300	346	647	115	292	24	8	283	88	-69	+13	-12	+53	+106	9.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	135	19	6	12	50	155	8	15	3	230	299	344	643	114	291	24	8	283	88	-9	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8679	7829	1858	274	78	171	673	2072	106	201	40	237	306	358	664	120	300	24	8	298	88	-120	+24	-20	+92	+186	16.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	140	21	6	13	50	155	8	15	3	239	307	362	669	123	302	24	8	298	88	-9	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Clint Barmeslast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,100 PA	6.2	4,100	89	43	245	294	379	+34	+76	16.8	16.2
/162	664	14	7	+5.4	+12.4	2.7	pk7: 16
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.5	5,002	99	114	238	304	359	+52	+30	13.0	10.4
/162	664	13	15	+6.8	+4.0	1.7	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Shirley (OGILVIE)	18	47→52	37→42	54→59	51	223/284/317	94	293	1	3	25%	7%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Ryan Burrowes 2023 · A	18	44→45	39→40	55→60	46	209/291/296	87	283	6	13	26%	8%	70	-0.8	190/254/255	65	320	4	20	39%	6%	47	-2.6	197/269/273	76	310	7	32	36%	7%	54	-1.5
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	45→55	43→45	57→45	40	220/270/339	119	285	9	15	26%	5%	71	-0.8	223/290/326	103	293	9	12	26%	7%	76	-0.4	233/299/331	99	302	8	8	24%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2011 · A	18	44	44→45	53→50	41	217/277/335	118	288	11	9	28%	6%	73	-0.6	219/286/320	101	286	6	11	24%	6%	73	-0.6	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	76	-0.4	235/301/339	104	297	6	12	21%	8%	82	+0.0	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Dilson Herrera 2012 · A	18	46→56	39→50	50	47	218/290/315	98	283	4	13	23%	7%	74	-0.6	226/277/349	123	297	11	12	27%	6%	76	-0.4	254/305/388	134	310	14	13	22%	6%	92	+0.7
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→52	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	61	-1.5	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	234/311/308	74	302	5	10	22%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	49	40→45	51→50	43	233/286/331	98	308	6	13	25%	6%	74	-0.5	210/256/293	83	314	4	11	32%	5%	55	-2.0	178/220/246	68	283	3	12	36%	4%	26	-1.1
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	47→48	41→50	53→45	48	227/287/331	103	273	8	13	20%	7%	76	-0.4	228/306/352	124	285	12	10	23%	9%	88	+0.4	229/316/366	137	276	13	9	21%	10%	94	+0.6
✕Jefferson Rojas 2023 · A	18	48→45	37→45	56→50	46	225/283/305	80	271	4	16	18%	6%	68	-1.0	212/272/309	97	268	9	15	23%	6%	65	-1.2	211/272/336	125	248	14	18	21%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→48	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	67	-1.1	211/270/308	97	287	7	34	27%	7%	64	-1.3	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	216/279/314	98	304	7	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	204/259/293	89	287	6	10	29%	6%	56	-1.9	235/295/316	82	324	8	12	28%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	50→60	38→40	51→50	50	237/313/315	78	287	5	13	18%	8%	82	-0.0	227/281/295	68	274	3	9	17%	6%	65	-1.2	245/328/327	82	296	5	2	17%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	45→46	39→45	55→60	46	214/284/299	85	303	7	19	30%	9%	68	-1.0	195/254/269	74	314	6	18	37%	7%	49	-2.4	210/276/309	99	295	8	34	30%	8%	64	-1.1
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	51→55	40→45	53→55	43	244/293/346	101	299	6	14	20%	5%	80	-0.1	238/292/336	98	305	7	14	23%	6%	78	-0.3	255/308/363	108	313	9	21	21%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Blaze Alexander 2019 · A	20	48	42→45	52→50	43	226/288/345	119	321	8	10	30%	7%	79	-0.2	202/270/304	102	302	9	11	34%	7%	63	-1.3	239/319/362	123	339	12	15	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Luis Santana 2018 · A	19	52	39→45	54→50	50	243/311/343	100	274	5	11	13%	7%	87	+0.4	246/316/336	90	288	6	9	16%	7%	88	+0.4	234/303/348	114	293	12	10	23%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	51→61	38→45	49→50	48	238/291/324	86	288	3	12	18%	7%	74	-0.5	234/279/310	76	290	3	12	19%	5%	66	-1.1	270/316/373	102	329	4	17	18%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	50	36→45	55→45	57	230/329/297	67	301	2	9	22%	12%	84	+0.2	231/325/325	94	288	8	10	21%	11%	89	+0.5	229/319/329	99	290	10	8	22%	11%	86	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps