David Shirley

SS DSL Miami

Age 19 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1273ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIA	90	.286/.389/.468	3	4	50	—	.200/.289/.288
2026	18	ROKDSL Miami	149	.318/.396/.447	2	11	51	—	.204/.268/.277
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIA	259	.226/.289/.313	3	5	71	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIA	45	.222/.287/.311	1	1	75	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIA	111	.225/.291/.320	1	3	79	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed93

K%73

wOBA68

Z-Con%65

wRC+60

ISO56

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJett Williams (age 19) · Jonathan Ornelas (age 19) · Cristofer Torin (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 77 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .286 / .310

PA77

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 59 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT59

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	149	132	42	5	3	2	16	25	1	11	2	318	396	447	843	129	381	17	11	378	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	224	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	137	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	204	268	277	546	73	256	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	246	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	137	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	204	268	277	546	73	257	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	149	132	42	5	3	2	16	25	1	11	2	318	396	447	843	129	381	17	11	378	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	224	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	136	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	206	268	279	548	74	256	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	90	80	16	2	1	1	8	18	2	4	1	200	289	287	576	87	224	20	9	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	149	136	28	3	2	1	11	31	1	11	2	206	268	279	548	74	256	21	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	259	236	54	8	3	3	19	64	2	5	1	226	289	313	601	87	295	25	7	273	71	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	131	119	27	4	1	2	10	32	1	3	1	229	294	324	618	95	297	24	8	279	75	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	230	208	48	7	2	3	17	56	3	5	1	232	297	333	631	102	297	24	7	285	79	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	341	308	72	11	3	5	26	82	4	8	2	234	300	341	642	107	298	24	8	289	82	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	418	378	90	14	4	7	32	99	5	10	3	236	302	348	650	112	298	24	8	293	84	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	467	423	99	15	4	8	36	110	5	11	3	237	304	353	657	116	299	24	8	296	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	495	449	106	16	4	9	38	117	5	12	3	237	305	354	659	117	299	24	8	296	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	510	460	110	17	5	9	39	121	6	12	3	237	304	354	659	117	299	24	8	296	86	-8	+1	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	515	466	110	17	5	9	39	123	5	12	3	236	304	352	655	115	298	24	8	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	511	462	109	17	4	9	39	123	5	11	3	235	302	347	649	113	298	24	8	292	84	-10	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	501	453	105	16	4	8	38	122	5	10	3	233	299	342	641	109	297	24	8	289	82	-11	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	489	444	102	15	4	8	37	120	5	10	3	230	296	334	630	104	295	25	8	284	79	-12	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	474	432	98	15	4	7	35	119	4	8	4	226	291	325	616	99	293	25	7	279	75	-14	+0	-3	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	45	42	9	1	0	1	3	11	0	1	0	222	287	311	598	89	288	24	7	272	75	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	111	101	22	3	1	1	8	27	1	3	1	225	291	320	611	95	288	24	7	277	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	185	167	38	5	2	3	14	44	2	4	1	227	294	327	621	100	289	24	8	281	82	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	237	214	49	7	2	4	18	56	3	6	1	229	296	333	629	105	289	24	8	284	84	-4	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	264	239	54	8	2	4	20	62	3	6	2	230	298	338	636	108	290	23	8	287	86	-4	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	280	254	58	8	2	5	21	66	3	7	2	230	298	339	637	109	290	24	8	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	288	261	60	9	2	5	22	68	3	7	2	230	298	339	637	109	290	24	8	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	286	259	59	9	2	5	22	68	3	7	2	229	297	337	634	108	289	24	8	286	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	280	254	57	8	2	5	21	67	3	6	2	228	295	333	628	105	289	24	8	284	84	-5	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	268	243	55	8	2	4	20	65	3	5	2	226	293	327	620	102	288	24	7	281	82	-6	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	257	234	52	7	2	4	19	63	2	5	2	223	289	321	610	98	287	25	7	276	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	268	244	54	8	2	4	20	67	2	5	2	219	285	312	597	93	284	25	7	271	75	-8	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2769	2512	567	81	21	45	208	664	28	62	19	226	292	328	621	103	288	24	8	282	81	-57	+5	-4	+30	+60	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	134	19	5	11	49	156	7	15	4	227	295	332	627	105	289	24	8	282	81	-13	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5398	4889	1136	171	48	87	411	1292	57	129	35	232	299	340	640	108	297	24	8	288	81	-108	+10	-7	+55	+112	6.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	137	21	6	10	49	156	7	16	4	233	299	340	639	107	298	24	8	288	81	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Miami · 149 PAwOBA .368 → .244 (−124)K% 16.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.78%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.74%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.57%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.47%
Singles /BIP	29.91%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.014	×1.008	20.78%
Doubles /BIP	4.67%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.014	×1.008	2.86%
Triples /BIP	2.80%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.014	×1.008	1.72%
Home runs /BIP	1.87%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.89%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .368 → .244; ISO .129 → .072; BABIP .381 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Marlins · 90 PAwOBA .373 → .242 (−131)K% 15.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.56%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.22%	÷1.029	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.50%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.59%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷0.955	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	18.21%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.073	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	2.86%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷1.097	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.383	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.65%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 91, 2B 115, 3B 119, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .373 → .242; ISO .182 → .080; BABIP .317 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.3	2,846	47	63	235	298	345	+30	+21	5.7	5.1
/162	664	11	15	+7.1	+4.9	1.3	pk7: 5
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Shirley (OGILVIE)	19	54→59	34→39	54→59	54	224/286/310	87	295	1	2	25%	7%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	219/282/318	99	308	7	14	30%	8%	70	-0.8	209/265/301	92	294	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Cooper Pratt 2024 · A	19	49→52	37→40	54→55	41	226/288/305	78	332	4	11	31%	6%	70	-0.9	228/299/323	95	293	8	23	23%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/324	95	284	8	29	21%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Tim Lopes 2013 · A	19	48→58	37→45	55	47	222/273/314	92	274	2	8	19%	6%	65	-1.2	233/277/307	74	298	3	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	267/317/348	81	330	3	20	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	50→59	42→45	53→60	43	241/287/350	109	301	9	12	23%	5%	80	-0.2	253/301/351	98	299	7	24	17%	5%	84	+0.2	270/312/373	104	312	8	35	15%	5%	91	+0.6
✕Ryan Brett 2011 · A	19	47→57	37→45	54→60	42	219/270/295	76	299	3	17	26%	6%	60	-1.6	240/286/340	100	292	6	24	19%	6%	76	-0.4	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	51→58	34→40	50→55	44	236/285/290	53	305	2	14	22%	6%	64	-1.3	241/294/285	44	301	1	9	19%	6%	67	-1.1	265/312/343	78	301	6	21	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	54	217/290/290	73	257	3	13	16%	9%	67	-1.1	237/295/343	106	326	11	30	28%	7%	81	-0.1	250/307/357	107	337	11	39	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jefferson Rojas 2024 · A	19	45→48	41→50	52→50	43	221/283/322	101	279	9	15	24%	6%	72	-0.7	222/283/337	115	269	12	16	21%	7%	76	-0.4	225/287/358	133	263	15	18	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	212/278/299	87	312	7	9	32%	8%	65	-1.2	240/287/333	93	302	8	17	22%	5%	76	-0.4	268/325/364	96	311	7	12	15%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	50→57	40→45	53→55	44	237/287/335	98	286	6	14	19%	5%	76	-0.4	245/302/345	100	311	7	14	22%	7%	84	+0.1	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Victor Bericoto 2021 · A	19	50→49	40→50	51→40	49	230/310/323	93	327	7	10	30%	10%	82	+0.0	224/286/341	117	319	13	5	31%	8%	78	-0.3	230/278/364	134	300	16	3	28%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	44→53	39→45	54→55	48	206/278/298	92	275	5	13	25%	9%	65	-1.2	213/265/301	88	288	6	11	27%	6%	60	-1.6	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6

David Shirley

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps