David Shirley — OGILVIE

David ShirleySS DSL Miami

Age 18 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION133 act + 88 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .282 / .306

PA88

HR1

K%27

BB%7

BABIP300

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$10M	+$10M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.1	$10M	+$9M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.1	$9M	+$9M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+2.1	$8M	+$7M
2036	Arb-2	$7M	+2.0	$7M	+$5M
2037	Arb-3	$9M	+1.8	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$23M		$51M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	90	82	18	2	1	1	6	21	2	4	1	220	289	305	594	85	283	23	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	MIA	—	133	123	29	3	1	2	9	39	1	8	2	236	293	325	618	89	329	29	7	271	65	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
YTD	18	ROK	MIA	—	133	118	38	4	1	3	14	27	1	8	2	322	398	449	848	127	398	20	11	381	150	+7	+1	+0	+1	+4	1.4
ROS	18	ROK	MIA	0%	88	81	18	2	1	1	6	24	1	3	1	220	282	306	588	86	299	27	7	269	64	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
ROS	18	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		294	—	—	259	57	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	MIA	—	133	124	29	3	1	2	9	39	1	8	2	234	293	323	616	89	325	29	7	271	65	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
TOT	18	ROK	MIA	—	221	204	47	5	2	3	15	63	2	11	3	230	289	318	606	88	317	28	7	270	65	-9	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIA	34%	249	226	52	7	2	4	18	66	3	8	2	230	296	332	627	102	300	27	7	281	73	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2028	20	MLB	MIA	48%	375	341	78	11	2	7	27	98	4	12	3	229	293	334	627	106	301	26	7	289	79	-9	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.7
2029	21	MLB	MIA	54%	468	424	99	14	3	10	35	120	6	16	4	233	301	351	652	118	302	26	7	295	84	-9	+2	+0	+5	+13	1.2
2030	22	MLB	MIA	57%	533	481	114	17	3	12	40	136	7	18	4	237	305	360	665	123	303	26	8	299	87	-8	+2	+0	+6	+15	1.5
2031	23	MLB	MIA	58%	576	521	124	18	4	13	43	146	7	20	4	238	305	363	667	125	303	25	7	301	89	-7	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.8
2032	24	MLB	MIA	57%	604	545	132	19	4	15	46	153	8	21	5	242	311	374	685	132	304	25	8	303	90	-7	+2	+0	+6	+17	2.0
2033	25	MLB	MIA	57%	620	560	134	19	4	15	47	157	8	21	5	239	307	368	675	129	304	25	8	305	91	-6	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.1
2034	26	MLB	MIA	57%	627	566	137	20	4	16	48	158	8	21	5	242	310	376	687	134	304	25	8	305	92	-6	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.1
2035	27	MLB	MIA	55%	626	565	137	20	4	16	48	159	8	21	5	242	311	377	688	135	304	25	8	306	92	-6	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.1
2036	28	MLB	MIA	55%	621	560	134	19	4	15	48	158	8	21	5	239	308	368	676	129	304	25	8	305	91	-6	+2	-1	+7	+18	2.0
2037	29	MLB	MIA	53%	611	550	132	19	4	15	48	157	8	20	5	240	310	371	681	131	303	26	8	303	90	-7	+2	-1	+7	+17	1.8
2038	30	MLB	MIA	53%	601	541	128	18	4	14	47	156	8	20	4	237	307	362	669	126	302	26	8	300	88	-8	+2	-2	+6	+17	1.6
2039	31	MLB	MIA	52%	587	529	122	17	3	13	46	154	7	19	4	231	301	348	649	117	300	26	8	296	85	-10	+2	-3	+6	+17	1.3
2040	32	MLB	MIA	56%	568	512	117	16	3	12	44	151	7	18	4	229	298	342	640	113	298	27	8	291	81	-12	+2	-4	+6	+16	0.9
2027	19	MLB	MIA	34%	86	79	17	2	1	1	6	23	1	3	1	215	279	304	583	89	295	27	7	269	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	MIA	48%	182	165	37	5	1	3	13	47	2	6	1	224	289	321	610	97	296	26	7	276	70	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2029	21	MLB	MIA	54%	254	230	54	8	2	5	19	65	3	9	2	235	302	352	654	117	297	26	7	281	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	22	MLB	MIA	57%	302	272	64	9	2	7	23	77	4	10	2	235	304	360	665	125	298	25	8	285	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.5
2031	23	MLB	MIA	58%	332	300	71	10	2	8	25	84	4	11	3	237	304	363	667	127	298	25	8	288	78	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB	MIA	57%	344	311	74	11	2	8	26	87	4	12	3	238	305	363	668	125	299	25	8	290	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2033	25	MLB	MIA	57%	352	317	75	11	2	8	27	89	5	12	3	237	307	360	666	123	299	25	8	291	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2034	26	MLB	MIA	57%	355	320	76	11	2	9	27	90	5	12	3	237	307	369	676	131	299	25	8	292	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2035	27	MLB	MIA	55%	347	313	74	11	2	8	27	88	4	12	3	236	305	361	666	125	299	25	8	292	81	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2036	28	MLB	MIA	55%	341	307	72	10	2	8	27	87	4	11	3	235	305	358	663	124	299	26	8	291	81	-7	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.7
2037	29	MLB	MIA	53%	327	294	70	10	2	8	26	84	4	11	2	238	309	367	676	129	298	26	8	289	80	-8	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.6
2038	30	MLB	MIA	53%	316	284	66	9	2	7	25	82	4	10	2	232	304	352	656	120	297	26	8	287	78	-8	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.5
2039	31	MLB	MIA	52%	306	275	64	9	2	7	24	80	4	10	2	233	304	356	660	124	295	26	8	283	75	-9	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.3
2040	32	MLB	MIA	56%	319	287	65	9	2	7	25	85	4	10	2	226	297	345	642	118	293	27	8	278	71	-10	+1	-2	+3	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4163	3755	879	125	26	94	320	1068	52	139	32	234	303	356	660	122	300	26	8	287	77	-106	+15	-6	+45	+118	6.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	138	20	4	15	50	167	8	22	5	235	304	360	664	125	301	26	8	287	77	-17	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	7844	7084	1676	238	50	179	597	2014	100	263	61	237	305	360	665	124	304	26	8	299	87	-115	+28	-10	+84	+222	21.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	139	20	4	15	49	167	8	22	5	237	304	361	665	124	304	26	8	299	87	-10	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	90	77	22	3	1	3	11	14	2	4	1	286	389	468	856	182	317	16	12	383	151	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	11	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
	/162	664	7	18	271	314	372	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	12	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	5	19	258	295	345	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,277	99	142	238	303	363	+46	+24	11.9	9.9
	/162	664	15	22	238	303	363	+7.1	+3.7	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Shirley (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	230/289/318	88	317	3	11	28%	7%	65	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2019 · A	18	42→48	39→55	51→55	40	205/251/286	81	270	6	16	26%	5%	45	-2.1	206/254/321	115	262	11	14	25%	5%	56	-1.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	196/253/282	87	272	8	16	30%	6%	45	-2.1	225/290/327	102	307	8	38	27%	7%	72	-0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	54	-1.4	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	50	-1.8	248/314/378	130	302	14	15	22%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→45	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	196/245/301	105	305	10	7	37%	5%	46	-2.0	224/273/340	115	327	12	2	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
●Dilson Herrera 2013 · A	19	44→54	43→50	51→50	43	214/269/331	117	274	9	13	25%	6%	65	-0.7	241/291/379	138	314	14	12	26%	6%	86	+0.8	258/308/400	143	315	15	13	23%	6%	96	+1.3
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	45→46	38→45	55→60	46	212/281/288	76	301	6	19	30%	8%	59	-1.1	193/251/266	73	311	6	18	37%	7%	40	-2.4	212/279/312	100	297	8	33	29%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Dixon Machado 2010 · A	18	39→49	37→45	53→55	49	188/254/256	69	223	5	19	18%	7%	40	-2.4	195/249/240	45	248	2	17	21%	6%	32	-3.0	228/310/338	110	275	11	4	20%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Adrián Sanchez 2009 · A	18	43→45	38→45	52→50	42	207/255/285	78	258	5	14	22%	5%	46	-2.0	223/254/298	75	271	5	11	19%	3%	49	-1.8	255/291/358	104	310	7	11	20%	4%	76	+0.0
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→43	42→55	53→50	44	188/268/290	102	278	10	11	34%	8%	55	-1.4	201/284/321	120	321	11	16	37%	9%	69	-0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9