Alexander Martinez

Alexander Martinez P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.6%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	15	4	30	130	46	15	3	27%	2.0	24.1%	14.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	15	4	30	130	46	15	3	27%	2.0	24.1%	14.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	15	4	30	130	46	15	3	27%	2.0	35.4%	11.5%	23.8%	2.3%	4.55	2.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	14	67	289	70	34	12	67%	3.2	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	5.4%	4.84	6.31	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	14	67	289	70	34	12	67%	3.2	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	5.4%	4.84	6.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CWS	21	14	67	289	70	34	12	67%	3.2	24.2%	11.8%	12.5%	4.2%	4.84	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	67	284	69	33	8	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.55	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	68	287	70	31	8	100%	5.7	24.5%	10.8%	13.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.41	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	68	287	71	31	8	100%	6.2	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.38	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	67	283	70	30	9	100%	6.1	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.41	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	65	274	67	30	9	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.50	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	5	5	29	122	30	14	4	100%	5.8	24.2%	11.7%	12.5%	3.0%	4.65	4.58	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	45	190	47	21	6	100%	5.6	24.5%	10.8%	13.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.44	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	54	228	56	24	7	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.41	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	57	241	59	26	7	100%	5.7	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.44	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	58	245	60	27	8	100%	5.8	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.53	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	243	1024	251	112	31	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.09	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	207	92	26	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		36	18	97	419	83	59	19	50%	2.7	19.8%	14.1%	5.8%	4.6%	4.75	5.75	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	37	200	867	172	122	40	50%	2.7	19.8%	14.1%	5.8%	4.6%	4.75	5.75	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.6%	13.0%	3.0%	—	4.45	24.4%	13.4%	203	-0.33	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	86
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	78
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	78
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	77
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	77
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	76
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	75
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	75
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	74
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	74
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	74
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	73
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	73
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.4%	13.8%	142	-2.14	2.93	176	73
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	59	24.4%	11.1%	1.16	4.50
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84