JC Vanek

1B Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 L/L 6'3" / 205 lbs A HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AKC	49	.250/.388/.300	0	3	41	—	.186/.286/.233
2026	21	AKC	374	.255/.402/.446	14	20	83	—	.201/.315/.336
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBKC	484	.201/.304/.335	12	11	83	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBKC	108	.203/.304/.337	3	3	87	-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBKC	176	.207/.307/.346	5	4	90	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

BB%87

wOBA83

wRC+82

Chase%81

ISO77

Speed59

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsOliver Carrillo (age 22) · Dillon Paulson (age 22) · Brian O'Grady (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .301 / .332

PA210

HR5

SB5

K%29

BB%11

ISO133

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE68

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	40	10	2	0	0	9	17	0	3	1	250	388	300	688	50	435	35	18	328	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	374	298	76	9	3	14	65	104	8	20	7	255	402	446	848	191	341	28	17	380	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	43	8	2	0	0	6	24	0	3	1	186	286	233	518	47	376	49	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	374	318	64	7	3	10	45	141	8	20	7	201	315	336	652	135	311	38	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	43	8	2	0	0	6	24	0	3	1	186	286	233	518	47	421	49	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	40	10	2	0	0	9	17	0	3	1	250	388	300	688	50	435	35	18	328	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	374	318	64	7	3	10	45	141	8	20	7	201	315	336	652	135	320	38	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	374	298	76	9	3	14	65	104	8	20	7	255	402	446	848	191	341	28	17	380	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	43	8	2	0	0	6	24	0	3	1	186	286	233	518	47	376	49	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	374	318	64	7	3	10	45	141	8	20	7	201	315	336	652	135	311	38	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	43	8	2	0	0	6	24	0	3	1	186	286	233	518	47	376	49	12	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	374	318	64	7	3	10	45	141	8	20	7	201	315	336	652	135	311	38	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	0%	484	420	85	14	3	12	55	142	6	11	3	201	304	335	638	133	268	29	11	291	83	-10	+1	+0	-9	+10	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	34%	314	271	56	9	2	8	36	90	4	7	2	206	307	347	654	140	271	29	11	297	87	-5	+1	+0	-6	+7	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	46%	381	330	70	12	2	11	43	108	5	9	3	210	310	356	665	146	273	28	11	301	90	-5	+1	+0	-7	+8	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	52%	418	364	77	13	2	12	46	117	5	10	3	213	311	362	673	149	274	28	11	304	92	-4	+1	+0	-7	+9	-0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	54%	438	382	82	14	2	13	48	121	5	10	3	215	312	365	677	151	275	28	11	305	93	-4	+1	+0	-8	+9	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	54%	445	388	83	14	2	13	49	122	5	10	3	215	311	364	675	149	275	27	11	305	92	-4	+1	+0	-8	+10	-0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	54%	444	388	82	14	2	13	48	123	5	10	3	213	309	359	667	146	273	28	11	302	90	-5	+1	-1	-8	+10	-0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	KC	53%	436	381	80	14	2	12	47	122	5	9	3	210	305	352	657	142	271	28	11	297	87	-7	+1	-1	-8	+9	-0.6
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	34%	108	94	19	3	1	3	12	31	1	3	1	203	304	337	642	134	269	29	11	292	87	-2	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	46%	176	152	32	5	1	5	20	50	2	4	1	207	307	346	652	139	271	28	11	296	90	-2	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	52%	216	187	40	7	1	6	24	60	3	5	1	210	308	351	660	142	272	28	11	299	92	-2	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	54%	237	206	43	8	1	6	26	66	3	6	2	211	309	355	663	144	272	28	11	300	93	-2	+0	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	54%	241	210	45	8	1	7	26	66	3	6	2	212	308	354	662	142	273	27	11	300	92	-2	+0	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	54%	241	210	44	8	1	6	26	67	3	5	2	209	306	349	654	139	271	28	11	297	90	-3	+0	-0	-4	+5	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	KC	53%	231	201	41	7	1	6	25	65	3	5	2	207	302	342	644	135	269	28	11	293	87	-3	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1450	1260	264	46	7	39	159	405	18	34	11	210	307	350	657	140	273	28	11	297	88	-16	+2	-1	-26	+31	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	118	21	3	17	71	182	8	15	5	209	306	347	653	138	274	28	11	297	88	-7	+1	-1	-12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3509	3046	638	105	18	97	392	1029	45	93	29	209	309	351	660	142	279	29	11	299	88	-37	+6	-2	-55	+67	-2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	117	19	3	18	73	191	8	17	5	207	307	348	654	140	277	29	11	299	88	-8	+1	-0	-12	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 374 PAwOBA .373 → .291 (−82)K% 27.8% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.81%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	37.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.38%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	11.99%
HBP% /PA	2.14%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.67%
Singles /BIP	25.77%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.023	—	24.27%
Doubles /BIP	4.64%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.023	—	3.94%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.023	—	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	7.22%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	5.77%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .373 → .291; ISO .191 → .147; BABIP .341 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 49 PAwOBA .321 → .229 (−92)K% 34.7% → 48.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.69%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	48.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.37%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.015	12.79%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	34.78%	÷1.099	×0.920	—	×1.015	29.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷0.913	×0.830	—	×1.015	8.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.937	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .321 → .229; ISO .050 → .039; BABIP .435 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kevin Young'92-'03 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,351 PA	6.6	4,351	144	83	247*	309*	426*	-69	-12	2.9	4.6
/162	664	22	13	-10.6	-1.9	0.4	pk7: 6
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Travis Lee'98-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 4,233 PA	6.4	4,233	115	59	246*	324*	396*	-74	-10	3.7	4.1
/162	664	18	9	-11.5	-1.6	0.6	pk7: 5
#4Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Dan Meyer'74-'85 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,027 PA	6.1	4,027	86	61	249*	293*	406*	-51	-24	-2.3	0.2
/162	664	14	10	-8.5	-3.9	-0.4	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.5	1,661	47	37	212	306	357	-30	-6	-0.1	0.0
/162	664	19	15	-11.9	-2.4	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JC Vanek (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	47→52	54→59	68	200/301/332	132	268	5	5	29%	11%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Oliver Carrillo 2024 · A	22	42→28	46→45	49→45	62	204/341/335	130	266	13	6	26%	15%	99	+1.3	181/269/294	113	292	13	4	39%	9%	62	-1.4	153/235/262	109	252	14	2	42%	8%	40	-1.5
✕Dillon Paulson 2019 · A	22	40→36	47→50	50→30	48	205/279/349	145	264	14	4	27%	9%	78	-0.3	206/284/335	129	302	13	4	33%	10%	76	-0.4	192/275/318	126	272	13	2	32%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→60	54→50	46	194/258/307	113	251	9	8	26%	8%	59	-1.6	188/270/299	111	264	10	14	30%	9%	63	-1.4	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2022 · A	20	36→42	47→60	50→40	54	185/296/323	138	225	14	8	24%	11%	80	-0.2	204/271/370	166	279	22	5	34%	7%	80	-0.2	215/282/406	191	269	25	2	30%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Gabriel Rincones Jr. 2024 · A	23	41→42	47→50	54→55	42	207/279/346	139	294	14	18	33%	8%	77	-0.3	212/287/351	139	290	15	20	30%	8%	81	-0.1	206/286/345	139	274	16	20	29%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Nicky Delmonico 2014 · A	22	40→48	49→55	48→45	47	207/285/351	144	272	17	8	30%	9%	80	-0.1	221/278/364	143	299	14	6	29%	7%	80	-0.1	237/306/397	160	290	18	4	24%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Joe Winker 2012 · A	22	48→32	44→55	55→45	41	231/284/360	129	318	9	6	29%	6%	81	-0.1	197/245/312	115	277	10	6	31%	5%	55	-1.9	170/216/280	110	235	10	6	32%	5%	36	-2.6
✕Eddinson Paulino 2024 · A	22	42	46→50	54→50	43	210/273/349	139	282	12	17	29%	7%	75	-0.5	202/261/322	120	278	12	13	30%	6%	64	-1.3	186/244/297	111	257	12	11	31%	6%	49	-1.3
✕Alex Glenn 2014 · A	23	41→42	48→55	55→50	42	209/275/352	143	286	15	11	31%	7%	76	-0.4	216/263/365	149	280	15	11	28%	5%	74	-0.5	214/256/366	152	271	15	10	27%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Niko Kavadas 2022 · A	23	47→43	45→55	49→30	50	223/308/353	130	319	12	7	32%	11%	89	+0.5	203/316/377	174	328	22	3	40%	13%	99	+1.3	186/307/359	173	300	23	1	41%	13%	90	+0.5
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	193/274/305	112	280	11	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	225/272/334	109	314	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	237/289/332	96	308	9	3	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	35→44	42→50	53→55	51	176/278/284	108	252	10	16	32%	11%	63	-1.3	209/288/321	112	322	10	16	35%	9%	74	-0.5	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Jace Jung 2023 · A	22	45→44	39→50	50→40	51	211/295/304	92	294	6	7	28%	11%	73	-0.6	220/306/378	158	292	18	4	29%	10%	94	+0.9	214/306/374	160	280	19	3	29%	11%	91	+0.6
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	41→51	44→45	54→60	51	204/286/315	111	257	12	20	25%	9%	72	-0.7	242/303/338	96	323	8	26	25%	8%	82	+0.0	266/322/394	128	330	12	31	22%	7%	101	+1.3
✕Sam Hilliard 2016 · A	22	45→49	44→55	54→55	44	219/281/347	128	305	10	11	30%	8%	76	-0.4	211/262/318	107	335	10	18	38%	6%	63	-1.4	208/281/383	175	283	19	18	32%	9%	85	+0.2
●Will Benson 2021 · A	23	34→44	50→55	52→55	43	182/262/331	149	278	18	14	40%	9%	68	-1.0	211/311/379	168	313	17	18	35%	12%	97	+1.1	224/328/404	179	321	17	26	32%	12%	107	+1.3
✕Xavier Isaac 2024 · A	20	45→44	51→55	55→50	48	228/303/392	164	299	18	9	29%	9%	96	+1.0	216/302/390	174	327	21	12	37%	10%	96	+1.0	205/305/390	184	309	24	14	38%	12%	94	+0.6
✕Emmanuel Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	44→40	50→45	55→50	55	201/327/360	159	328	16	16	38%	15%	99	+1.2	225/344/381	156	362	16	16	36%	14%	109	+2.0	227/352/388	161	353	18	17	35%	15%	110	+0.9

JC Vanek

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps