JC Vanek — OGILVIE

JC Vanek1B Columbia Fireflies

Age 21 L/L 6'3" / 205 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION255 act + 170 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .280 / .313

PA170

HR4

SB5

K%34

BB%9

BABIP281

ISO120

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	43	7	2	0	0	6	25	0	3	1	163	265	209	475	47	389	51	12	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	40	10	2	0	0	9	17	0	3	1	250	388	300	688	50	435	35	18	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	KC	—	255	223	42	5	2	6	26	107	4	11	5	188	285	309	594	121	324	42	10	267	63	-11	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.8
YTD	21	A	KC	—	255	208	50	6	3	8	41	75	4	11	5	240	375	413	789	173	333	29	16	355	130	+9	+0	+0	-5	+7	1.2
ROS	21	A	KC	0%	170	150	29	4	1	4	16	58	2	5	2	193	280	313	593	120	285	34	9	270	65	-7	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	KC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		281	—	—	258	56	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	A	KC	—	255	224	42	5	2	6	26	107	4	11	5	188	285	308	593	121	321	42	10	267	63	-11	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.8
TOT	21	A	KC	—	425	373	71	9	3	10	42	165	6	16	7	190	283	311	594	121	305	39	10	268	64	-18	+0	+0	-8	+12	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	KC	34%	344	305	61	10	2	8	32	113	4	8	3	200	284	325	609	125	285	33	9	280	73	-11	+0	+0	-6	+10	-0.7
2027	22	MLB	KC	34%	118	105	21	3	1	3	11	39	1	3	1	200	282	333	615	133	282	33	9	269	64	-5	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	118	106	21	3	1	3	11	39	1	3	1	198	282	330	612	132	277	33	9	269	64	-5	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	117	17	6	17	61	215	6	17	6	200	286	337	623	137	279	33	9	269	64	-27	+1	+0	-12	+18	-1.9
Career	—			—	563	498	97	16	3	12	54	196	6	16	6	195	281	311	593	116	290	35	10	271	66	-22	+1	+0	-10	+16	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	111	18	3	14	62	226	7	18	7	193	279	308	587	115	287	35	10	271	66	-25	+1	+0	-12	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	49	40	10	2	0	0	9	17	0	3	1	250	388	300	688	50	435	35	18	328	109	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	254	6	5	201	280	324	-5	-2	-0.6	-0.3
	/162	664	15	14	201	280	324	-11.9	-3.9	-1.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JC Vanek (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	45→50	52→57	61	190/283/311	121	305	10	16	39%	10%	64	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	38→31	43→45	51→50	41	190/257/298	109	284	11	12	35%	8%	52	-1.6	205/269/317	112	309	11	12	35%	7%	62	-0.9	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕William Beckwith 2012 · A	21	43→39	49→50	51→50	44	218/293/369	151	274	16	9	26%	7%	86	+0.8	211/274/352	141	299	17	11	34%	6%	74	-0.1	198/262/339	142	281	18	12	35%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A	21	40→46	46→50	49→55	42	204/258/333	129	267	13	11	28%	6%	61	-1.0	214/265/332	118	288	11	11	28%	6%	63	-0.8	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Dillon Paulson 2019 · A	22	41→37	47→50	50→30	48	207/281/353	146	266	14	4	27%	9%	76	+0.1	206/284/338	132	300	13	4	33%	10%	74	-0.1	196/280/329	133	277	13	2	32%	10%	67	-0.3
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→55	55→50	40	201/267/329	128	288	12	8	33%	6%	64	-0.8	209/259/340	131	294	14	8	32%	5%	63	-0.8	208/281/368	159	278	20	6	31%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Estee Harris 2006 · A	21	36→31	43→50	50	37	187/233/300	113	268	11	14	34%	5%	41	-2.3	188/238/287	99	315	9	13	41%	6%	40	-2.4	172/224/263	91	318	8	13	46%	6%	25	-1.1
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Francisco Rodriguez 2016 · A	21	40	42→45	46→50	48	196/289/304	108	280	10	9	31%	10%	68	-0.5	185/262/277	92	319	7	6	41%	7%	50	-1.8	144/219/247	103	250	8	2	43%	6%	20	-0.9
✕Josh Ockimey 2017 · A	21	40→43	48→50	47→30	46	203/281/350	147	285	16	4	33%	9%	76	+0.0	201/277/343	142	311	16	2	38%	9%	72	-0.2	177/279/330	153	255	19	1	36%	12%	68	-0.4
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	46	-2.0	198/248/295	97	289	8	8	32%	6%	46	-2.0	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	23	-1.0
✕D.J. Wilson 2018 · A	21	38	47→55	53→50	40	195/250/337	142	270	14	13	33%	6%	59	-1.1	177/239/277	100	286	9	14	39%	7%	38	-2.6	139/207/209	70	236	6	17	41%	7%	6	-1.8
✕Rixon Wingrove 2021 · A	21	43→35	42→55	44→40	42	210/265/319	109	287	9	4	29%	7%	59	-1.1	185/250/320	135	298	16	4	41%	6%	55	-1.4	184/257/346	162	273	22	3	39%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Brian Pointer 2014 · A	22	38→43	43→45	51→50	39	190/263/305	115	288	11	13	36%	7%	57	-1.2	212/286/344	132	314	13	12	34%	8%	76	+0.1	211/289/350	139	310	15	12	34%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Brenden Webb 2011 · A	21	38→42	41→45	53→50	43	184/261/289	104	283	8	7	35%	8%	51	-1.7	187/272/290	103	314	9	10	39%	10%	56	-1.3	173/263/277	104	295	10	10	41%	10%	47	-1.4
✕Gabriel Moncada 2023 · A	21	44→42	43→50	44→40	44	210/287/319	110	308	10	5	33%	8%	70	-0.3	195/263/306	111	293	11	3	35%	8%	56	-1.3	176/245/278	102	264	11	1	36%	7%	39	-1.3
✕Kevin Padlo 2017 · A	21	37→40	46→55	46→50	47	187/275/320	133	269	13	9	34%	10%	66	-0.6	187/271/328	141	273	14	8	34%	9%	66	-0.6	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Alexander Ovalles 2022 · A	21	46→41	42→50	45→50	44	223/286/333	110	295	9	6	26%	7%	72	-0.2	214/279/332	118	297	12	10	30%	7%	69	-0.4	203/272/324	121	279	13	11	31%	8%	61	-0.4
✕Stanley Martinez 2018 · A	21	42	41→45	49→50	46	203/276/300	97	261	8	8	25%	7%	61	-1.0	227/289/332	105	321	9	7	30%	7%	74	-0.1	220/280/293	72	342	5	3	34%	6%	56	-0.4
✕Eddinson Paulino 2023 · A	21	42→39	47→45	55→50	44	211/280/363	152	291	13	14	31%	8%	78	+0.2	197/255/323	126	277	13	15	32%	6%	58	-1.2	180/237/301	121	250	13	15	33%	6%	41	-1.5