Abimelec Ortiz
1B Rochester Red Wings| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 579 | .234/.329/.417 | 21 | 3 | 74 | — | .207/.273/.355 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 711 | .252/.368/.458 | 29 | 8 | 100 | — | .223/.299/.406 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAAWSH | 365 | .244/.350/.497 | 18 | 0 | 85 | — | .199/.281/.383 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBWSH | 136 | .188/.230/.344 | 5 | 0 | 53 | -1.4 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBWSH | 70 | .206/.278/.387 | 3 | 0 | 86 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ48% MLB | 26 | MLBWSH | 151 | .208/.280/.388 | 5 | 1 | 87 | -0.2 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 172 | 129 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 421 | 581 | 1.002 | 349 | 216 | 18 | 19 | 432 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 400 | 333 | 733 | 133 | 333 | 30 | 15 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 331 | 292 | 66 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 93 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 226 | 311 | 380 | 691 | 154 | 288 | 28 | 10 | 309 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 333 | 290 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 26 | 33 | 90 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 290 | 370 | 624 | 994 | 334 | 322 | 27 | 10 | 419 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 121 | 101 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 307 | 402 | 604 | 1.006 | 297 | 393 | 30 | 13 | 420 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 50 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 314 | 489 | 600 | 1.089 | 286 | 296 | 16 | 24 | 445 | 187 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 476 | 419 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 104 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 243 | 330 | 432 | 762 | 189 | 280 | 22 | 11 | 338 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 103 | 85 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 153 | 206 | 19 | 17 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 165 | 138 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 283 | 393 | 565 | 958 | 283 | 316 | 22 | 13 | 411 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 391 | 340 | 84 | 19 | 0 | 16 | 44 | 87 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 344 | 444 | 788 | 197 | 286 | 22 | 11 | 351 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 155 | 118 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 229 | 405 | 373 | 778 | 144 | 230 | 10 | 21 | 358 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 136 | 128 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 230 | 344 | 573 | 156 | 216 | 26 | 5 | 253 | 53 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +3 | -1.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 365 | 312 | 76 | 25 | 0 | 18 | 43 | 71 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 244 | 350 | 497 | 847 | 253 | 258 | 19 | 12 | 371 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 136 | 128 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 230 | 344 | 573 | 156 | 216 | 26 | 5 | 253 | 57 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +3 | -1.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 172 | 139 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 129 | 292 | 295 | 587 | 165 | 120 | 22 | 13 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 331 | 302 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 125 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 179 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 116 | 263 | 38 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 333 | 303 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 23 | 20 | 121 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 281 | 498 | 780 | 274 | 261 | 36 | 6 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 121 | 106 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 245 | 316 | 462 | 779 | 217 | 340 | 40 | 9 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 476 | 434 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 126 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 207 | 273 | 355 | 628 | 147 | 249 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 165 | 144 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 344 | 507 | 851 | 250 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 391 | 355 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 13 | 29 | 109 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 279 | 363 | 643 | 155 | 259 | 28 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 136 | 129 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 222 | 341 | 563 | 155 | 216 | 26 | 4 | 247 | 53 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +3 | -1.4 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 365 | 326 | 65 | 21 | 0 | 13 | 29 | 85 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 281 | 383 | 664 | 184 | 225 | 23 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 155 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 43 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 129 | 293 | 297 | 590 | 168 | 131 | 22 | 13 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 192 | 144 | 33 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 37 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 419 | 556 | 974 | 326 | 227 | 19 | 19 | 423 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 331 | 302 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 125 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 179 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 116 | 263 | 38 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 331 | 292 | 66 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 93 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 226 | 311 | 380 | 691 | 154 | 288 | 28 | 10 | 309 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 452 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 32 | 35 | 187 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 291 | 493 | 785 | 263 | 294 | 37 | 7 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 504 | 426 | 126 | 21 | 4 | 36 | 61 | 134 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 296 | 389 | 617 | 1.006 | 322 | 336 | 27 | 12 | 422 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 528 | 108 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 43 | 153 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 205 | 270 | 348 | 618 | 144 | 251 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 579 | 504 | 118 | 25 | 2 | 21 | 67 | 124 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 234 | 329 | 417 | 745 | 183 | 267 | 21 | 12 | 332 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 711 | 636 | 140 | 28 | 4 | 26 | 57 | 191 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 220 | 297 | 399 | 697 | 179 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 711 | 596 | 150 | 30 | 3 | 29 | 97 | 139 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 252 | 368 | 458 | 826 | 206 | 279 | 20 | 14 | 366 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 455 | 89 | 26 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 121 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 371 | 636 | 176 | 223 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 501 | 440 | 100 | 30 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 107 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 317 | 452 | 770 | 225 | 246 | 21 | 10 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 154 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 43 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 130 | 293 | 299 | 592 | 169 | 120 | 22 | 13 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 331 | 302 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 125 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 179 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 116 | 263 | 38 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 460 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 32 | 35 | 187 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 226 | 291 | 485 | 776 | 259 | 282 | 37 | 7 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 527 | 108 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 43 | 153 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 205 | 270 | 349 | 619 | 144 | 249 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 711 | 635 | 140 | 28 | 4 | 26 | 57 | 191 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 220 | 297 | 400 | 697 | 180 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 453 | 89 | 26 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 121 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 373 | 638 | 177 | 223 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 527 | 108 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 43 | 153 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 205 | 270 | 349 | 619 | 144 | 249 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 711 | 635 | 140 | 28 | 4 | 26 | 57 | 191 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 220 | 297 | 400 | 697 | 180 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 501 | 453 | 89 | 26 | 0 | 18 | 35 | 121 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 373 | 638 | 177 | 223 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 45% | 380 | 343 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 94 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 278 | 388 | 665 | 181 | 238 | 25 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 45% | 70 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 278 | 387 | 665 | 181 | 239 | 24 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 315 | 283 | 59 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 77 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 280 | 388 | 668 | 180 | 241 | 24 | 8 | 296 | 87 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 151 | 137 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 280 | 388 | 668 | 180 | 241 | 25 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 287 | 265 | 51 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 249 | 351 | 600 | 158 | 223 | 25 | 6 | 276 | 81 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +6 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 116 | 27 | 0 | 23 | 41 | 165 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 251 | 353 | 604 | 160 | 223 | 25 | 6 | 276 | 81 | -21 | +0 | +0 | -26 | +14 | -3.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3288 | 2952 | 603 | 126 | 13 | 125 | 252 | 935 | 51 | 25 | 17 | 204 | 278 | 383 | 661 | 179 | 249 | 28 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -17 | +13 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 120 | 25 | 3 | 25 | 50 | 185 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 205 | 280 | 387 | 666 | 182 | 250 | 28 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -19 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 365 PAwOBA .360 → .294 (−66)K% 19.5% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.048 | 12.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.048 | 8.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .360 → .294; ISO .253 → .196; BABIP .258 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 391 PAwOBA .342 → .281 (−61)K% 22.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.25% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.37% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 18.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.32% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.32% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .342 → .281; ISO .197 → .163; BABIP .286 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 165 PAwOBA .404 → .359 (−45)K% 21.8% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.82% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.050 | 18.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.050 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.050 | 3.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .404 → .359; ISO .283 → .255; BABIP .316 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 476 PAwOBA .331 → .271 (−60)K% 21.8% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.85% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.50% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.37% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 17.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.41% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .331 → .271; ISO .189 → .148; BABIP .280 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 333 PAwOBA .414 → .329 (−85)K% 27.0% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.03% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×0.963 | ×1.027 | 17.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.50% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×0.963 | ×1.027 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.963 | ×1.027 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 12.40% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .414 → .329; ISO .334 → .291; BABIP .322 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 121 PAwOBA .419 → .325 (−93)K% 29.8% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.75% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.22% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 22.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.77% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 9.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.124 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.77% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 8.08% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 83, 3B 125, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .419 → .325; ISO .297 → .220; BABIP .393 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 331 PAwOBA .304 → .242 (−62)K% 28.1% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.10% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.61% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.030 | 21.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.02% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.030 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.030 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.53% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .304 → .242; ISO .154 → .124; BABIP .288 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Rangers 1 · 172 PAwOBA .422 → .258 (−164)K% 18.0% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.02% | ÷0.986 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.60% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 13.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.23% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷0.981 | ×0.680 | ×1.000 | ×0.995 | 5.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.135 | ×0.600 | ×1.000 | ×0.995 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.000 | ×0.995 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.22% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 5.05% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 96, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .422 → .258; ISO .349 → .175; BABIP .216 → .120. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .