Niko Kavadas

1B Salt Lake Bees

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 235 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AAA/INTL2 orgs	474	.276/.417/.554	25	0	116	—	.192/.311/.368
2024	25	MLBLAA	106	.183/.283/.333	4	1	77	-1.0
2025	26	AAALAA	527	.235/.365/.479	28	1	72	—	.171/.275/.330
2025	26	MLBLAA	23	.100/.217/.100	0	0	1	-1.4
2026	27	AAA/ROKLAA	330	.318/.455/.598	16	0	117	—	.246/.348/.446
2027PROJ10% MLB	28	MLBLAA	16	.194/.300/.373	1	0	91	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	29	MLBLAA	74	.193/.297/.367	3	0	89	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.3M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

BB%94

Max EV86

Chase%84

Z-Con%41

K%29

Whiff%28

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDaniel Palka (age 29) · Joe Koshansky (age 28) · Darick Hall (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .300 / .373

PA16

HR1

K%38

BB%12

BABIP269

ISO286

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.175

POWER60

Barrel%

589.4

Avg EV

7190.6

Bat Spd

3569.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

2026.0

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.3M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	29	21	6	2	0	1	8	7	0	0	0	286	483	524	1.007	238	385	24	28	446	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	29	22	5	2	0	1	7	6	0	0	0	227	414	455	868	227	267	21	24	391	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	100	81	18	3	0	2	16	40	3	0	0	222	370	333	703	111	410	40	16	331	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Greenville Drive	—	161	120	37	4	0	10	32	42	7	0	0	308	478	592	1.070	283	386	26	20	461	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	Salem Red Sox	—	254	192	55	18	1	14	54	70	6	1	1	286	456	609	1.066	323	373	28	21	456	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	60	46	11	3	0	2	13	24	1	0	0	239	417	435	851	196	450	40	22	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	187	148	31	8	0	8	35	62	2	0	0	209	368	426	793	216	287	33	19	355	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	293	221	45	8	0	14	63	110	5	2	0	204	391	430	821	226	307	38	22	368	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	106	93	17	2	0	4	11	41	2	1	0	183	283	333	616	151	271	39	10	283	77	-3	+0	+0	-10	+2	-1.0
2024	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	383	307	81	22	0	19	62	130	10	0	1	264	404	521	925	257	383	34	16	404	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	91	70	23	6	1	6	17	29	2	0	0	329	472	700	1.172	371	459	32	19	486	215	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	100	217	100	317		200	43	13	170	1	-3	+0	-2	-10	+0	-1.4
2025	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	527	434	102	16	3	28	75	163	14	1	1	235	365	479	844	244	300	31	14	372	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	295	237	75	22	1	15	55	79	3	0	0	316	451	608	1.058	291	420	27	19	458	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	ROK	ACL Angels	—	35	27	9	2	0	1	7	12	1	0	0	333	486	519	1.004	185	571	34	20	449	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	129	113	19	2	0	4	14	51	2	1	0	168	271	292	563	124	259	40	11	263	64	-6	+0	-1	-20	+3	-2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	29	24	6	2	0	1	5	10	0	0	0	250	379	458	838	208	335	34	17	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	29	25	4	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	160	276	320	596	160	195	31	14	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	100	87	15	2	0	1	10	49	3	0	0	172	280	230	510	57	391	49	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	161	134	34	3	0	10	18	52	7	0	0	254	371	500	871	246	312	32	11	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	254	208	41	13	1	11	38	102	6	1	1	197	337	428	765	231	302	40	15	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	187	158	26	5	0	6	25	73	2	0	0	165	286	310	597	146	238	39	13	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	293	242	39	6	0	11	42	134	5	2	0	161	298	322	620	161	265	46	14	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	106	93	17	2	0	4	11	41	2	1	0	183	283	333	616	151	271	39	10	282	77	-3	+0	+0	-10	+2	-1.0
2024	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	383	323	62	15	0	14	46	161	10	0	1	192	311	368	680	176	310	42	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	100	217	100	317		200	43	13	170	1	-3	+0	-2	-10	+0	-1.4
2025	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	527	457	78	12	2	19	52	200	14	1	1	171	275	330	606	160	243	38	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	295	255	64	18	1	11	37	95	3	0	0	251	353	459	811	208	352	32	13	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	35	30	6	1	0	1	4	17	1	0	0	200	314	333	648	133	419	49	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	58	49	9	3	0	2	9	18	0	0	0	184	310	367	678	184	241	31	16	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	58	43	11	4	0	2	15	13	0	0	0	256	448	488	937	233	321	22	26	419	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	4 teams	—	575	480	102	21	1	25	74	227	17	1	1	212	338	417	755	204	332	39	13	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A RAW	4 teams	—	575	439	121	28	1	28	115	176	17	1	1	276	443	535	978	260	389	31	20	429	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	480	400	64	11	0	16	67	207	7	2	0	160	291	307	599	147	262	43	14	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	480	369	76	16	0	22	98	172	7	2	0	206	382	428	810	222	298	36	20	363	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	580	492	95	20	0	22	68	239	14	1	1	193	308	368	676	175	308	41	12	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	580	470	121	30	1	29	90	200	14	1	1	257	392	511	903	253	372	34	16	394	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	477	80	12	2	19	55	210	14	1	1	168	273	321	594	153	242	38	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	550	454	104	16	3	28	78	173	14	1	1	229	359	463	822	233	296	31	14	364	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	285	69	19	1	11	41	112	4	0	0	242	345	432	777	189	358	34	12	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	330	264	84	24	1	16	62	91	4	0	0	318	455	598	1.053	280	433	28	19	457	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	58	49	9	3	0	2	9	18	0	0	0	184	310	367	678	184	265	31	16	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	4 teams	—	575	479	102	21	1	25	74	227	17	1	1	213	338	418	756	205	322	39	13	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	480	403	64	11	0	16	67	207	7	2	0	159	291	305	596	146	254	43	14	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	580	493	95	20	0	22	68	239	14	1	1	193	308	367	676	174	302	41	12	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	476	80	12	2	19	55	210	14	1	1	168	273	321	594	153	241	38	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	282	69	19	1	11	41	112	4	0	0	245	345	436	782	191	359	34	12	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	580	493	95	20	0	22	68	239	14	1	1	193	308	367	676	174	302	41	12	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	476	80	12	2	19	55	210	14	1	1	168	273	321	594	153	241	38	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	282	69	19	1	11	41	112	4	0	0	245	345	436	782	191	359	34	12	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10%	380	327	63	13	1	14	43	134	7	1	0	195	300	373	673	178	272	35	11	303	91	-4	+0	-1	-7	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10%	16	14	3	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	194	300	373	672	179	269	38	12	302	91	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27%	272	235	46	10	1	10	30	95	5	0	0	194	298	367	666	173	271	35	11	300	89	-4	+0	-2	-5	+6	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	27%	74	65	13	3	0	3	8	26	1	0	0	193	297	367	665	174	268	35	11	299	89	-1	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	203	178	32	5	0	7	22	77	3	1	0	180	281	326	607	146	266	38	11	276	89	-6	+0	-2	-22	+4	-2.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	102	16	0	22	70	247	10	3	0	179	280	323	603	144	266	38	11	276	89	-21	+1	-5	-69	+14	-8.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3000	2552	491	101	6	111	361	1163	64	6	3	192	308	367	675	175	292	39	12	300	89	-11	+0	-3	-28	+12	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	553	106	22	1	24	78	252	14	1	1	192	307	365	672	174	291	39	12	300	89	-13	+0	-4	-33	+14	-3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 295 PAwOBA .446 → .348 (−98)K% 26.8% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.78%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.31%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	12.53%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.95%
Singles /BIP	23.42%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.975	×0.992	21.07%
Doubles /BIP	13.92%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.975	×0.992	11.18%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.975	×0.992	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	9.49%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	6.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .446 → .348; ISO .291 → .218; BABIP .420 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Angels · 35 PAwOBA .438 → .273 (−165)K% 34.3% → 49.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.29%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	49.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	11.66%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	1.93%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	30.83%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	9.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	4.89%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .438 → .273; ISO .185 → .114; BABIP .571 → .419. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 527 PAwOBA .364 → .274 (−90)K% 30.9% → 37.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.93%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	37.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.85%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.95%
HBP% /PA	2.66%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.50%
Singles /BIP	20.30%	÷1.046	×0.930	×0.955	×1.003	17.29%
Doubles /BIP	5.90%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.955	×1.003	4.67%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.079	×0.970	×0.955	×1.003	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	10.33%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.003	7.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .364 → .274; ISO .244 → .172; BABIP .300 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 383 PAwOBA .398 → .305 (−93)K% 33.9% → 42.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.94%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	41.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.19%	÷0.944	×0.690	—	×1.018	12.05%
HBP% /PA	2.61%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.50%
Singles /BIP	22.60%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.968	×1.018	20.11%
Doubles /BIP	12.43%	÷1.141	×0.830	×0.968	×1.018	8.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.968	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.73%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.018	8.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .398 → .305; ISO .257 → .189; BABIP .383 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 293 PAwOBA .363 → .278 (−86)K% 37.5% → 45.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.54%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	45.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.16%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×0.998	14.32%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.45%
Singles /BIP	20.72%	÷0.972	×0.970	×0.958	×0.998	19.77%
Doubles /BIP	7.21%	÷1.144	×0.860	×0.958	×0.998	5.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.958	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.61%	÷1.048	×0.780	—	×0.998	9.37%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .363 → .278; ISO .226 → .170; BABIP .307 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 187 PAwOBA .350 → .270 (−81)K% 33.2% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.16%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	38.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.72%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.033	13.54%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.04%
Singles /BIP	17.44%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.995	×1.033	16.74%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷1.309	×0.830	×0.995	×1.033	6.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.905	×0.970	×0.995	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.30%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×1.033	6.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .350 → .270; ISO .216 → .153; BABIP .287 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 254 PAwOBA .448 → .332 (−116)K% 27.6% → 40.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.56%	÷0.930	×1.360	—	—	40.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.26%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×0.980	14.86%
HBP% /PA	2.36%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.81%
Singles /BIP	18.03%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.950	×0.980	15.05%
Doubles /BIP	14.75%	÷0.950	×0.830	×0.950	×0.980	12.00%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.106	×0.910	×0.950	×0.980	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	11.48%	÷0.873	×0.800	—	×0.980	10.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .448 → .332; ISO .323 → .251; BABIP .373 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 161 PAwOBA .454 → .368 (−85)K% 26.1% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷1.059	×1.310	—	—	32.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.25%	÷1.001	×0.600	—	×0.988	11.41%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	3.31%
Singles /BIP	29.49%	÷1.005	×0.870	×0.973	×0.988	24.55%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.973	×0.988	3.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.850	×0.973	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.82%	÷0.996	×0.880	—	×0.988	11.19%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .454 → .368; ISO .283 → .266; BABIP .386 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Niko Kavadas (OGILVIE)	28	40	60	45	60	193/298/369	177	272	6	1	35%	11%	91	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→43	55	44→50	44	211/277/391	180	269	24	5	31%	8%	86	+0.3	212/275/364	152	270	19	5	28%	8%	79	-0.2	202/263/345	143	255	19	3	28%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Joe Koshansky 2010 · MLB	28	39→48	53→55	45→40	40	204/270/376	172	296	21	5	38%	8%	80	-0.1	197/268/350	153	298	20	6	38%	8%	74	-0.5	181/257/327	146	269	20	4	39%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	40→39	54→55	45→40	42	215/272/392	177	261	22	5	28%	6%	85	+0.2	214/272/352	138	272	18	4	27%	7%	76	-0.4	201/264/311	109	259	15	1	28%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	40→48	52→55	47→45	41	213/274/382	170	278	21	4	31%	6%	83	+0.1	205/285/361	156	298	20	10	36%	9%	83	+0.1	174/273/315	142	254	20	11	38%	10%	66	-0.8
✕Edwin Rios 2022 · MLB	28	38→48	58→60	46→30	42	212/287/416	205	284	27	5	35%	8%	97	+1.1	218/286/388	170	312	21	4	35%	7%	90	+0.6	212/282/379	167	306	20	1	36%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Jeff Larish 2012 · MLB	29	42→45	53→55	43→45	44	222/289/393	171	293	21	4	31%	8%	91	+0.7	199/270/331	132	295	14	6	35%	9%	70	-0.8	153/235/246	93	245	4	0	36%	10%	35	-1.2
✕Matt Clark 2015 · MLB	28	45	55	46→30	42	238/293/416	178	289	25	3	27%	6%	99	+1.2	224/277/382	158	277	21	3	26%	6%	84	+0.2	215/271/378	163	261	21	0	26%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Josh Lester 2022 · AAA	28	37→44	55	46→40	38	206/254/392	186	269	24	4	33%	6%	78	-0.3	203/249/365	162	255	20	5	29%	5%	70	-0.8	194/241/345	151	238	19	3	27%	5%	61	-1.3
✕Greg Bird 2022 · MLB	29	38→48	51→60	43→30	46	204/275/360	156	258	20	3	29%	8%	79	-0.2	205/273/335	130	276	15	7	30%	8%	72	-0.7	171/243/265	94	235	10	4	30%	8%	42	-1.1
●Ryan O'Hearn 2021 · MLB	28	40→50	53→60	44→45	49	215/293/388	174	267	21	3	28%	10%	92	+0.7	243/295/415	172	297	22	6	26%	6%	99	+1.2	268/340/432	164	304	21	3	19%	9%	120	+2.3
✕Cody Decker 2016 · AAA	29	36→39	54→65	42→30	40	197/262/373	175	270	23	3	36%	7%	77	-0.3	188/245/339	151	280	19	3	38%	6%	63	-1.4	175/244/325	149	254	20	0	38%	8%	59	-0.5
✕John-Ford Griffin 2008 · AAA	28	39→40	53→55	50→40	42	212/267/383	172	270	21	5	30%	7%	81	-0.1	221/278/362	141	286	14	6	27%	7%	80	-0.2	220/279/349	129	282	11	4	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Matt Davidson 2019 · MLB	28	43→45	57→60	42→30	43	228/298/423	195	308	26	2	34%	8%	102	+1.5	217/283/412	195	288	27	3	34%	7%	94	+0.9	211/279/410	199	270	30	0	33%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Michael Johnson 2007 · AA	27	41→36	56→60	42→30	44	222/287/414	192	285	25	3	31%	8%	96	+1.0	213/291/375	162	301	19	4	33%	9%	88	+0.4	191/280/359	169	268	20	0	35%	11%	78	-0.2
✕Chris Shaw 2021 · MLB	27	43→46	54→55	45→30	38	226/278/403	177	303	23	4	33%	6%	90	+0.6	192/268/328	136	324	16	7	42%	9%	69	-0.9	127/222/272	145	208	21	2	48%	10%	37	-1.2
✕Preston Tucker 2018 · MLB	28	40→47	52→55	41→40	45	214/270/377	163	252	20	3	24%	7%	80	-0.1	221/278/364	143	258	15	5	20%	7%	80	-0.1	225/297/368	143	264	15	1	20%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA	28	38	52→60	43→45	39	202/261/367	165	279	20	5	35%	7%	75	-0.5	205/266/341	136	303	15	8	35%	7%	71	-0.8	169/234/307	138	253	17	6	39%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Luken Baker 2024 · MLB	27	41→47	57→60	45→30	46	225/292/415	190	274	26	2	28%	8%	98	+1.2	203/282/380	177	256	23	2	29%	10%	86	+0.3	178/263/342	163	225	21	1	30%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Jon Kemmer 2019 · AAA	28	42→52	51→55	46→50	40	215/280/380	164	300	19	8	34%	7%	85	+0.2	229/304/410	181	309	23	6	32%	7%	101	+1.4	222/310/419	197	293	27	1	32%	8%	103	+1.1
●Danny Dorn 2012 · AAA	28	42→47	51→55	48→45	39	219/271/379	160	292	18	4	31%	6%	81	-0.1	212/270/372	160	274	20	6	29%	6%	80	-0.2	240/293/408	168	294	20	5	25%	6%	95	+0.7