Caleb Leys — OGILVIE

Caleb Leys P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%19.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—45

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	16	63	292	58	39	6	80%	3.1	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	20	16	63	292	58	39	6	80%	3.1	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	DET	20	16	63	292	58	39	6	80%	3.1	19.9%	13.4%	6.5%	2.1%	5.14	4.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	63	267	54	31	8	100%	5.7	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.92	4.84	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	270	57	29	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.7%	10.4%	2.9%	4.76	4.67	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	270	58	29	8	100%	5.8	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.0%	4.68	4.64	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	63	266	57	28	8	100%	6.3	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.67	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	27	114	23	13	3	100%	5.4	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	2.8%	4.85	4.77	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	42	177	37	19	5	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.69	4.60	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	46	23	6	100%	6.4	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.61	4.57	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	54	228	49	24	7	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.6%	10.8%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	174	734	155	79	21	100%	6.0	21.1%	10.8%	10.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.24	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	91	24	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.8%	10.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		20	16	63	292	43	46	8	80%	3.1	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	51	200	927	136	146	25	80%	3.2	14.7%	15.8%	-1.1%	2.7%	5.14	5.32	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Leys (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	19.1%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.72	20.9%	10.0%	191	-0.40	—	—	—
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	85
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	80
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	80
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	78
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	78
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	77
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	76
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	76
Gabriel Castellanos L 2016 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP	4.49	15.5%	13.7%	1.8%	.348	3.41	15.3%	2.7%	26	-1.08	3.41	108	76
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	75
Jagger Haynes L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	19.7%	13.0%	2.1%	.303	5.02	17.7%	3.7%	343	+0.77	4.25	368	75
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	75
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	75
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	75
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	74
Kyle Backhus L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.2%	11.3%	1.9%	.280	3.50	22.9%	11.4%	153	-0.81	2.78	267	74
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	74
Cionel Pérez L 2019 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP-	4.89	17.8%	11.8%	3.3%	.336	3.27	24.5%	13.7%	112	-1.62	2.67	514	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	58	20.8%	11.1%	1.15	4.80
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84