Caleb Leys P Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%19.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
K: -2.3 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-2KBB: -2.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: -4.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +13.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.46 (100 IP)+0.5WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—40
STUF—50
CTRL—45
K†4550
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202623ALakeland Flying Tigers1310431983823577%3.314.2%13.7%0.5%3.3%4.785.44-0.5
ROS23MLBDET11115723947237100%5.219.8%9.7%10.1%3.0%4.684.68-0.1
ROS23MLBDET——0——————19.8%9.7%10.1%2.9%4.614.61—
2026 TOT23MLBDET——100437854612——19.5%10.5%9.0%2.8%4.725.01+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBDET10105824551237100%5.820.8%9.2%11.7%3.0%4.574.52+0.0
202825MLBDET10105924853227100%5.921.4%8.9%12.5%3.0%4.484.43+0.1
202926MLBDET10105924854227100%5.921.7%8.9%12.8%3.0%4.434.40+0.1
203027MLBDET10105824453227100%5.821.8%9.0%12.8%3.0%4.434.44+0.1
202724MLBDET442510622103100%6.220.8%9.2%11.7%2.8%4.504.45+0.0
202825MLBDET773916535155100%5.621.4%8.9%12.5%2.8%4.414.36+0.1
202926MLBDET884719843186100%5.921.7%8.9%12.8%2.8%4.364.33+0.1
203027MLBDET884920745196100%6.121.8%9.0%12.8%2.9%4.364.37+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—27271606741456119100%5.921.5%9.0%12.5%2.9%4.393.99+2.6
/ 200 IP—34342008441827624100%5.921.5%9.0%12.5%2.9%4.393.99+3.3
Career—1310431982827777%3.314.2%13.7%0.5%3.3%4.785.44-0.5
/ 200 IP—60462009141301253077%3.314.2%13.7%0.5%3.3%4.785.44-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Caleb Leys (OGILVIE) —— 4.68 19.8%9.7%3.0%— 4.45 21.3%12.3%176 -0.23 ———
Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP 23 SP- 4.63 18.9%8.5%3.7%.332 4.35 17.5%8.1%119 -0.28 3.54 186 89
Matt Mikulski L 2026 · 4.80 FIP 23 SP- 4.80 19.4%10.0%3.8%.360 5.95 16.3%-2.8%144 +1.15 4.80 223 86
Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP 24 SP- 3.89 23.3%11.3%2.4%.286 4.89 18.1%2.5%99 +1.00 3.89 176 86
Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP 23 SP- 4.40 18.4%11.4%2.6%.284 4.47 17.1%5.8%213 +0.07 3.67 288 84
Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP 23 SP- 4.49 20.1%9.0%3.5%.349 4.18 22.0%8.2%175 -0.31 3.65 308 83
T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP 24 SP 4.71 21.9%9.0%4.2%.298 4.64 16.9%7.4%231 -0.07 3.39 300 82
Bailey Horn L 2026 · 5.16 FIP 23 SP- 5.16 19.7%12.7%3.9%.300 4.71 22.7%9.5%152 -0.45 4.13 265 82
Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP 23 SP- 3.63 23.1%12.0%1.7%.249 4.99 21.5%9.2%48 +1.36 3.10 196 82
Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP 23 SP- 4.33 23.4%12.4%3.0%.288 4.01 25.1%10.7%150 -0.32 3.72 239 81
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP 23 SP 4.06 21.0%10.7%2.5%.297 6.60 15.1%4.8%51 +2.54 4.06 248 79
Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP 23 SP 5.15 20.2%11.2%4.2%.296 3.38 26.8%17.4%445 -1.77 2.46 623 79
Ryan Williamson L 2026 · 4.10 FIP 23 SP- 4.10 18.4%5.9%3.3%.286 5.67 18.4%5.8%102 +1.57 4.10 123 79
Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP 23 SP 3.51 23.4%10.0%2.0%.275 3.79 22.7%10.5%150 +0.28 3.51 212 79
Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.49 FIP 23 SP- 4.49 20.3%14.1%2.4%.313 4.65 17.8%1.7%139 +0.16 4.12 234 79
Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP 24 SP- 4.84 20.5%10.5%3.9%.315 4.77 18.0%7.5%56 -0.07 4.77 154 78
Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP 24 SP- 4.25 21.0%9.9%3.0%.333 4.75 17.3%8.0%104 +0.50 3.42 205 78
Ben Brecht L 2026 · 4.37 FIP 23 SP 4.37 17.3%5.5%3.7%.237 4.39 21.1%17.2%43 +0.02 4.37 118 78
Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.36 FIP 23 SP 4.36 16.4%10.5%2.4%.312 4.46 21.0%7.7%184 +0.10 3.84 249 78
A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP 23 SP- 3.68 22.8%10.0%2.3%.262 5.86 20.1%8.4%51 +2.18 3.64 203 78
Ryan Magdic L 2028 · 3.64 FIP 25 SP- 3.64 18.3%6.7%2.3%.314 3.18 21.5%16.7%54 -0.46 3.18 150 77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION55821.1%9.1%1.154.52
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Matt Albers ('19)54920.3%8.3%1.374.21
Brandon Maurer ('18)45321.5%8.8%1.065.20
Drew VerHagen ('23)64319.7%9.4%1.404.82
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41