Denton Biller — OGILVIE

Denton Biller P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.6%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	2	0	6	24	4	4	0	0%	2.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	2	0	6	24	4	4	0	0%	2.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2025	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	2	0	6	24	4	4	0	0%	2.8	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	42	205	29	26	8	77%	3.2	10.5%	15.0%	-4.5%	5.1%	6.43	6.90	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	13	10	42	205	29	26	8	77%	3.2	10.5%	15.0%	-4.5%	5.1%	6.43	6.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	BAL	13	10	42	205	29	26	8	77%	3.2	14.1%	12.7%	1.5%	3.9%	6.43	5.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	43	182	40	19	5	100%	5.4	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.60	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	21	89	19	9	3	100%	5.2	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	21	90	20	9	3	100%	5.3	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.21	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	188	85	28	100%	5.1	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		15	10	48	229	25	35	10	67%	3.2	11.1%	15.1%	-4.0%	4.5%	5.66	6.57	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	42	200	961	107	146	44	67%	3.2	11.1%	15.1%	-4.0%	4.5%	5.66	6.57	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denton Biller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.6%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.60	21.8%	11.4%	43	-0.28	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	89
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	84
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	84
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	81
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	81
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	81
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	81
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	80
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	80
Dominic Pipkin R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	21	SP-	4.62	19.3%	12.2%	2.9%	.329	5.31	16.5%	0.7%	93	+0.69	4.62	292	80
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	80
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	21.3%	10.9%	1.16	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58