Bryan Lara — OGILVIE

Bryan Lara P DSL LAD Bautista

Age 18 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.7%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	3	3	7	39	6	3	2	100%	2.2	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	5.1%	12.15	5.59	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	3	3	7	39	6	3	2	100%	2.2	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	5.1%	12.15	5.59	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	3	3	7	39	6	3	2	100%	2.2	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	5.1%	12.15	6.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	5	5	10	56	4	12	0	100%	2.1	4.9%	26.8%	-21.9%	0.0%	9.58	6.08	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	5	5	10	56	4	12	0	100%	2.1	4.9%	26.8%	-21.9%	0.0%	9.58	6.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	LAD	5	5	10	56	4	12	0	100%	2.1	7.1%	21.4%	-14.3%	0.0%	9.58	5.21	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	LAD	4	4	20	84	20	9	2	100%	5.0	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.52	+0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	LAD	2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	5.0	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	4.9	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	203	102	20	100%	4.3	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		8	8	17	95	9	18	2	100%	2.1	9.2%	18.9%	-9.8%	2.1%	10.59	5.88	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	94	200	1118	103	212	24	100%	2.1	9.2%	18.9%	-9.8%	2.1%	10.59	5.88	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.7%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.52	23.2%	12.2%	20	-0.21	—	—	—
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	80
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	79
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	77
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	77
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	77
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	76
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	76
Daniel Espino R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	18	SP	4.31	20.5%	11.8%	2.6%	.194	3.61	32.5%	21.4%	110	-0.70	3.49	172	74
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	74
Yaqui Rivera R 2021 · 3.92 FIP	18	SP	3.92	18.3%	13.5%	1.2%	.314	3.82	21.7%	6.7%	139	-0.10	3.67	289	74
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	73
Luis Perales R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP	3.74	23.9%	16.6%	1.0%	.253	4.39	23.9%	10.2%	116	+0.65	2.34	248	72
Mick Abel R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.88	20.9%	7.4%	326	-0.07	2.24	528	72
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	72
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	72
Walter Ford R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	18	SP	4.14	15.2%	12.1%	1.4%	.348	5.71	12.4%	5.7%	308	+1.57	4.14	330	71
Claudio Galva R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	18	SP	3.97	17.4%	12.6%	1.4%	.255	4.17	15.0%	8.1%	34	+0.20	2.86	113	71
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	71
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	71
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	71