Daniel Espino

P Columbus Clippers

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	AACLE	4	4	18	2.45	2.77	51.5%	5.9%	—	K 41.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.22
2025	24	AAACLE	1	1	1	40.50	0.10	20.0%	0.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.41
2026	25	MIX2 levels	55	4	52	3.81	3.93	33.2%	13.0%	0.4	K 30.1% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	26	MLBCLE	45	0	47	3.78	3.82	33.3%	10.5%	0.4
2028PROJ79% MLB	27	MLBCLE	47	0	49	3.87	3.90	32.3%	10.5%	0.4
2029PROJ85% MLB	28	MLBCLE	47	0	49	3.97	4.02	31.5%	10.5%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 88%

CompsKiko Calero (age 28) · Ben Heller (age 25) · Hunter Bigge (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.78

FIP3.82

K%33.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%22.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p9036.8%

p9038.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.264

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	6	6	14	53	16	5	1	100%	2.3	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	2.6%	1.98	4.31	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	6	6	14	53	16	5	1	100%	2.3	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	1.9%	1.98	2.81	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	92	375	152	39	9	100%	4.6	30.7%	12.1%	18.6%	2.6%	3.73	3.49	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	92	375	152	39	9	100%	4.6	40.5%	10.4%	30.1%	2.4%	3.73	2.34	—
2022	21	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	4	4	18	68	35	4	4	100%	4.6	41.7%	6.5%	35.2%	7.0%	2.45	4.22	—
2022	21	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	4	4	18	68	35	4	4	100%	4.6	51.5%	5.9%	45.6%	5.9%	2.45	2.77	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	1.41	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	1.41	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	40.50	0.10	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	4	52	223	74	29	8	7%	0.9	30.1%	12.0%	18.1%	3.8%	3.81	4.17	+0.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	4	52	223	74	29	8	7%	0.9	30.1%	12.0%	18.1%	3.8%	3.81	4.17	+0.2
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	4	52	223	74	29	8	7%	0.9	33.2%	13.0%	20.2%	3.6%	3.81	3.93	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	3	15	65	25	7	3	21%	1.1	38.5%	10.8%	27.7%	4.6%	4.11	3.75	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	45	0	47	198	66	21	7	0%	1.0	33.3%	10.5%	22.8%	3.3%	3.78	3.82	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	59	0	62	263	85	28	9	0%	1.1	32.3%	10.5%	21.8%	3.3%	3.87	3.90	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	55	0	58	245	77	26	8	0%	1.1	31.5%	10.5%	21.0%	3.4%	3.97	4.02	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	67	22	7	0%	1.0	32.3%	10.5%	21.8%	3.3%	3.87	3.90	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	65	22	7	0%	1.0	31.5%	10.5%	21.0%	3.4%	3.97	4.02	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	3	114	482	158	51	17	3%	1.1	32.8%	10.5%	22.3%	3.5%	3.95	3.60	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	5	200	845	277	89	30	3%	1.1	32.8%	10.5%	22.3%	3.5%	3.95	3.60	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		86	35	176	724	222	83	25	41%	2.1	30.7%	11.5%	19.3%	3.4%	3.62	3.82	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	40	200	821	252	94	28	41%	2.1	30.7%	11.5%	19.3%	3.4%	3.62	3.82	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 37 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.35 (+0.36)K% 31.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.01%	—	×0.860	26.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.92%	—	×0.900	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 18 IPFIP 2.73 → 4.22 (+1.49)K% 51.5% → 41.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	51.47%	—	×0.810	41.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.100	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷1.014	×1.200	6.96%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 49 IPFIP 2.30 → 3.38 (+1.08)K% 45.1% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.13%	—	×0.770	34.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.150	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷1.222	×1.250	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 2.30 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ALynchburg Hillcats · 43 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.62 (+1.30)K% 35.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.56%	—	×0.740	26.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.78%	—	×1.180	15.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.950	×1.300	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Indians Red · 14 IPFIP 2.78 → 4.31 (+1.53)K% 30.2% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.680	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.250	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Espino (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	3.96	31.9%	21.4%	120	+0.14	—	—	—
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	70
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	67
Hunter Bigge R 2024 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	36.6%	8.7%	4.1%	.271	5.43	20.5%	7.2%	67	+2.05	3.38	232	66
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	65
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	64
Trey Wingenter R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	25	SU	3.17	33.0%	12.8%	2.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	64
Paul Gervase R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	24	SU	3.46	32.8%	10.4%	3.3%	.244	4.33	27.3%	15.3%	108	+0.87	3.38	211	64
Michael Dimock R 2016 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	26.8%	9.8%	3.3%	.289	3.79	20.9%	11.9%	66	-0.12	3.08	166	63
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	62
Alex Lange R 2022 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.86	26.3%	10.9%	108	+0.86	3.00	511	62
Ryne Stanek R 2017 · 3.05 FIP	26	SU	3.05	30.4%	10.0%	2.3%	.311	3.83	28.9%	18.4%	143	+0.78	2.96	771	62
Evan Reifert R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	25	SU	3.00	32.7%	10.9%	2.3%	.247	3.44	30.1%	17.7%	87	+0.44	2.83	206	62
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	62
Dan Winkler R 2017 · 2.70 FIP	27	SU	2.70	34.0%	11.3%	1.9%	.214	3.82	24.0%	12.5%	131	+1.12	2.40	231	62
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	62
Jaden Hill R 2024 · 3.02 FIP	24	SU	3.02	26.7%	7.1%	2.3%	.360	2.95	25.4%	16.0%	87	-0.07	2.48	169	61
Pete Fairbanks R 2020 · 2.77 FIP	26	SU	2.77	33.3%	12.0%	1.8%	.339	2.00	35.6%	26.4%	112	-0.77	0.50	463	61
Pierce Johnson R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	26	SU	3.09	27.8%	11.7%	1.6%	.374	3.71	25.0%	13.7%	86	+0.62	2.75	598	61
Heath Bell R 2004 · 4.40 FIP	26	SU	4.40	28.7%	6.4%	5.3%	.304	2.71	24.7%	18.1%	177	-1.69	1.86	629	61
Tejay Antone R 2020 · 3.28 FIP	26	SW	3.28	31.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.211	3.06	29.0%	19.2%	46	-0.22	2.81	688	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	32.9%	10.5%	1.33	3.89
Ernesto Frieri ('17)	1.5	51	30.1%	11.1%	1.25	3.59
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Vinnie Pestano ('15)	1.0	68	28.5%	10.2%	1.07	2.98
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Victor Cruz ('78-'83, 5 WAR*)	1.4	54	35.3%*	11.5%*	1.30*	3.24*