Alex Lange

P Kansas City Royals

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	30	0	27	3.95	3.14	26.6%	14.5%	0.5	K 23.3% · BB 18.9% · FIP 3.52
2025	29	MIX3 levels	27	2	26	4.44	3.29	29.5%	13.4%	0.4	K 25.4% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.99
2026	30	MLBKC	59	0	60	6.75	5.57	21.8%	12.0%	-0.7
2027PROJ	31	MLBKC	49	0	51	5.13	5.14	25.0%	12.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	30	0	32	5.29	5.40	24.2%	13.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	19	0	20	5.52	5.68	23.3%	13.8%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo70

K%47

xwOBA vs15

Form7.79 ERA (proj 5.13) · K 19.5% (proj 25.0%) · BB 11.0% (proj 12.9%) ▼ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Chris Hatcher (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 115

ERA5.13

FIP5.14

K%25.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	120	495	101	38	6	100%	5.2	15.7%	8.8%	6.9%	1.6%	3.74	3.78	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	120	495	101	38	6	100%	5.2	20.4%	7.7%	12.7%	1.2%	3.74	3.02	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	102	457	94	53	8	67%	3.8	16.2%	13.0%	3.2%	2.0%	5.45	4.46	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	102	457	94	53	8	67%	3.8	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	1.8%	5.45	3.83	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	57	262	66	33	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.9%	11.0%	2.0%	4.24	3.81	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	57	262	66	33	5	0%	1.0	25.2%	12.6%	12.6%	1.9%	4.24	3.66	+0.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	71	0	63	271	82	30	5	0%	0.9	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	1.9%	3.41	3.00	+1.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	71	0	63	271	82	30	5	0%	0.9	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	1.8%	3.41	2.96	+1.2
2023	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.2%	3.68	3.91	+0.5
2023	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.1%	3.68	3.89	+0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.95	3.52	+0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.95	3.52	+0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	0.8%	3.95	3.14	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	25.4%	12.9%	12.6%	2.6%	4.44	3.99	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	25.4%	12.9%	12.6%	2.6%	4.44	3.99	+0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	29.5%	13.4%	16.1%	1.8%	4.44	3.29	+0.4
2026	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	59	0	60	275	60	33	13	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	5.1%	6.75	5.58	-0.7
2026	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	59	0	60	275	60	33	13	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	5.1%	6.75	5.58	-0.7
2026	30	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	59	0	60	275	60	33	13	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.0%	9.8%	4.7%	6.75	5.57	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			255	0	245	1092	282	141	29	0%	1.0	25.8%	12.9%	12.9%	2.7%	4.45	4.06	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	KC	49	0	51	215	54	28	8	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.9%	12.1%	3.9%	5.13	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	32	0	34	143	35	19	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.3%	10.9%	4.1%	5.29	5.40	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	KC	20	0	21	90	21	12	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.8%	9.6%	4.4%	5.52	5.68	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	32	135	33	18	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.3%	10.9%	4.1%	5.29	5.40	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	KC	19	0	20	84	20	12	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.8%	9.6%	4.4%	5.52	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		305	0	297	1313	335	171	38	0%	1.0	25.5%	13.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.20	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	884	226	115	26	0%	1.0	25.5%	13.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		359	43	523	2284	493	282	51	12%	1.5	21.6%	12.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.47	4.06	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	16	200	873	189	108	19	12%	1.5	21.6%	12.3%	9.2%	2.2%	4.47	4.06	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 23 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.99 (+0.46)K% 29.6% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.59%	—	×0.860	25.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.872	×1.100	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 9 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.11 (+1.01)K% 35.3% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.860	30.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×0.900	2.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.792	×1.100	4.08%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 22 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.35 (+0.38)K% 27.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.00%	—	×0.880	23.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.00%	—	×1.050	17.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.052	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAErie SeaWolves · 55 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.35 (+0.38)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.78%	—	×0.810	15.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.100	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.294	×1.200	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 48 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.57 (+0.95)K% 22.4% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.37%	—	×0.770	17.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.40%	—	×1.150	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷0.956	×1.250	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 120 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.78 (+0.77)K% 20.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.40%	—	×0.770	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.68%	—	×1.150	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷0.933	×1.250	1.62%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Lange (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	25.0%	12.9%	3.9%	—	5.51	23.9%	10.3%	55	+0.37	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	78
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	76
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	73
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	73
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	72
David Carpenter R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.8%	2.9%	.333	3.89	21.5%	11.9%	49	-0.60	2.66	275	71
Sergio Santos R 2014 · 5.29 FIP	31	SU	5.29	27.4%	15.1%	4.7%	.411	4.17	24.7%	16.5%	16	-1.12	1.36	178	70
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	70
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	69
Blake Treinen R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	31	SU	4.98	22.2%	13.5%	3.7%	.302	2.60	27.3%	19.4%	98	-2.38	1.53	601	69
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	50	25.4%	13.1%	1.19	4.70
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*