Alex Lange
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118108vR 99
ERA3.94
FIP4.09
K%25.6%
BB%15.1%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
CT (11%)
SI (24%)
CU (3%)
SL (32%)
FB-1.0 (35%)
CH-1.8 (21%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 23 | 120 | 495 | 101 | 38 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 3.74 | 3.85 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 23 | 120 | 495 | 101 | 38 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 1.2% | 3.74 | 3.02 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 102 | 457 | 94 | 53 | 8 | 67% | 3.8 | 16.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 5.45 | 4.40 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 102 | 457 | 94 | 53 | 8 | 67% | 3.8 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 5.45 | 3.83 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 57 | 262 | 66 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 4.24 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 57 | 262 | 66 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 4.24 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 71 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 82 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 19.2% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 3.05 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 71 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 82 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 19.2% | 1.8% | 3.41 | 2.96 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 67 | 0 | 66 | 288 | 79 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.68 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 67 | 0 | 66 | 288 | 79 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 27 | 124 | 33 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.3% | 18.9% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 3.95 | 3.52 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 27 | 124 | 33 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 0.8% | 3.95 | 3.14 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 2 | 26 | 112 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 2 | 26 | 112 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 7% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 3.29 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 37 | 0 | 38 | 171 | 37 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 5.92 | 3.54 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | KC | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | KC | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | KC | — | — | 65 | 285 | 66 | 39 | 5 | — | — | 23.2% | 13.8% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 5.10 | 3.77 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | KC | — | — | 65 | 274 | 66 | 39 | 5 | — | — | 24.1% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 5.10 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | KC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 256 | 65 | 40 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 15.4% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | KC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 58 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | KC | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 62 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 15.4% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 55 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 364 | 0 | 361 | 1570 | 405 | 220 | 33 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 0 | 200 | 871 | 225 | 122 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 337 | 43 | 501 | 2180 | 471 | 273 | 40 | 13% | 1.5 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 4.31 | 3.87 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 17 | 200 | 870 | 188 | 109 | 16 | 13% | 1.5 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 4.31 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Lange (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 28.8% | 16.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.75 | 25.0% | 9.4% | 117 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.95 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.5% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 134 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 72 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 71 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 71 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 67 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 67 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 67 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 66 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 66 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.70 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 4.5% | .261 | 3.75 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -1.95 | 2.59 | 309 | 66 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 1.0% | .368 | 3.32 | 19.5% | 14.0% | 137 | -0.25 | 2.76 | 228 | 65 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 65 |
| Jordan Jankowski R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 21.8% | 16.9% | 2.6% | .396 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 196 | 65 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 65 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 26.4% | 15.8% | 1.00 | 4.52 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |