Alex Lange — OGILVIE

Alex Lange P Kansas City Royals

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.10

FIP4.22

K%24.7%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

CT (13%)

SI (23%)

CU (3%)

SL (32%)

FB-1.0 (33%)

CH-1.8 (21%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	120	495	101	38	6	100%	5.2	15.7%	8.8%	6.9%	1.6%	3.74	3.78	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	23	120	495	101	38	6	100%	5.2	20.4%	7.7%	12.7%	1.2%	3.74	3.02	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	102	457	94	53	8	67%	3.8	16.2%	13.0%	3.2%	2.0%	5.45	4.46	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	102	457	94	53	8	67%	3.8	20.6%	11.6%	9.0%	1.8%	5.45	3.83	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	57	262	66	33	5	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.9%	11.0%	2.0%	4.24	3.81	+0.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	57	262	66	33	5	0%	1.0	25.2%	12.6%	12.6%	1.9%	4.24	3.66	+0.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	71	0	63	271	82	30	5	0%	0.9	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	1.9%	3.41	3.00	+1.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	71	0	63	271	82	30	5	0%	0.9	30.3%	11.1%	19.2%	1.8%	3.41	2.96	+1.2
2023	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.2%	3.68	3.91	+0.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.2%	3.68	3.91	+0.5
2023	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	67	0	66	288	79	44	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	15.3%	12.2%	2.1%	3.68	3.89	+0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.95	3.52	+0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	23.3%	18.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.95	3.52	+0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	27	124	33	18	1	0%	0.9	26.6%	14.5%	12.1%	0.8%	3.95	3.14	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	24.6%	12.9%	11.7%	2.6%	4.44	4.07	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	24.6%	12.9%	11.7%	2.6%	4.44	4.07	+0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	26	112	33	15	2	7%	1.0	29.5%	13.4%	16.1%	1.8%	4.44	3.29	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			251	0	241	1072	278	138	25	0%	1.0	25.9%	12.9%	13.1%	2.3%	4.25	3.86	+2.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	55	0	57	255	56	30	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.8%	6.04	4.83	-0.2
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	55	0	57	255	56	30	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.8%	6.04	4.83	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	KC	55	0	57	255	56	30	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.5%	6.04	4.67	-0.1
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	KC	55	0	57	255	56	30	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.8%	10.2%	3.5%	6.04	4.67	-0.1
ROS	30	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	23	6	3	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	13.8%	10.9%	2.7%	4.10	4.22	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	24.7%	13.8%	10.9%	2.7%	4.10	4.22	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	62	278	62	33	10	—	—	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	3.5%	5.87	4.78	-0.1
FULL	30	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	62	262	62	33	10	—	—	23.5%	12.7%	10.9%	3.7%	5.87	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	KC	58	0	61	256	63	36	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	14.1%	10.4%	3.1%	4.76	4.90	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	KC	53	0	56	237	56	34	8	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.5%	9.2%	3.3%	4.99	5.15	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	60	35	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.1%	10.4%	3.1%	4.76	4.90	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	53	224	53	32	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.5%	9.2%	3.3%	4.99	5.15	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	0	358	1563	396	208	41	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.3%	12.0%	2.6%	4.44	4.07	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	0	200	874	221	116	23	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.3%	12.0%	2.6%	4.44	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		355	43	520	2264	488	279	46	12%	1.5	21.6%	12.3%	9.2%	2.0%	4.38	3.96	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	17	200	871	188	107	18	12%	1.5	21.6%	12.3%	9.2%	2.0%	4.38	3.96	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Lange (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	28.0%	15.2%	2.5%	—	5.02	24.1%	9.8%	117	+0.59	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	74
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	74
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	73
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	72
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	71
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	71
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	70
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	70
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	70
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	69
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	266	69
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	68
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	68
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	68
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	68
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	25.5%	14.6%	1.15	4.67
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64