Alex Lange
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.21
FIP4.45
xFIP3.35
SIERA2.85
K%24.7%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%11.6%
IP25
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF7575
CTRL2020
CMD4545
K†6565
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p9035.2%
K%
p9034.0%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
CT (10%)
SI (22%)
CU (6%)
SL (26%)
FB-1.0 (37%)
CH-1.8 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 23 | 23 | 120 | 495 | 101 | 38 | 6 | 15.7% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 3.74 | 3.77 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 18 | 102 | 457 | 94 | 53 | 8 | 16.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 5.45 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 55 | 0 | 57 | 262 | 66 | 33 | 5 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 4.24 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 71 | 0 | 63 | 271 | 82 | 30 | 5 | 30.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 3.41 | 3.02 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 67 | 0 | 66 | 288 | 79 | 44 | 6 | 27.4% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.68 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 0 | 27 | 124 | 33 | 18 | 1 | 23.3% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 3.95 | 3.52 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 27 | 2 | 26 | 112 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 26.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 6 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.52 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | KC | 17 | — | 17 | 74 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 29.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | KC | — | — | 25 | 109 | 34 | 15 | 2 | 30.9% | 14.1% | 1.7% | 3.94 | 2.91 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | KC | 24 | — | 24 | 102 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 29.5% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 306 | 43 | 471 | 2044 | 446 | 256 | 36 | 21.8% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 4.17 | 3.83 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 18 | 200 | 869 | 190 | 109 | 15 | 21.8% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 4.17 | 3.83 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Lange (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 29.3% | 14.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.14 | 29.5% | 15.3% | 24 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.4% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 134 | 75 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 72 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 72 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 71 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.18 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 1.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 186 | 71 |
| Greg Holland R 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 71 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 70 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 69 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 168 | 68 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 68 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 67 |
| Curtis Partch R 2025 · 3.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.12 | 21.7% | 12.5% | 0.5% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 124 | 67 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 159 | 67 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.