Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.51 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 5.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 0 | 21 | 99 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 18.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.66 | 6.79 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 0 | 21 | 99 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.3% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 5.66 | 5.13 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 53 | 239 | 70 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 17.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 5.29 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 53 | 239 | 70 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.3% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 5.26 | 4.02 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 239 | 68 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 4.05 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 239 | 68 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.5% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 1 | 39 | 158 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 37.1% | 9.6% | 27.5% | 4.0% | 2.52 | 3.39 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 41 | 1 | 39 | 158 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 39.9% | 8.9% | 31.0% | 3.8% | 2.52 | 2.95 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 13 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 2.40 | 6.34 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 13 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 6.7% | 2.40 | 5.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 0 | 33 | 148 | 33 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 6.48 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 9.8% | 17.7% | 3.6% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 9.8% | 17.7% | 3.6% | 4.08 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 50 | 220 | 53 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 24.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 5.67 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 36 | 154 | 53 | 28 | 7 | — | — | 34.3% | 18.2% | 16.1% | 4.3% | 7.85 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 157 | 1 | 164 | 692 | 173 | 71 | 24 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.18 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 87 | 29 | 1% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 186 | 1 | 216 | 949 | 236 | 141 | 33 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.80 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 1 | 200 | 877 | 219 | 130 | 31 | 1% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Bigge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 30.2% | 8.7% | 3.7% | — | 4.55 | 25.8% | 15.5% | 100 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 79 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 79 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 28.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% | .236 | 4.98 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 138 | +0.54 | 3.57 | 291 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 77 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .277 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | -0.06 | 2.78 | 596 | 77 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 76 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 76 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.01 | 31.6% | 18.8% | 65 | +0.78 | 1.11 | 160 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 75 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 183 | 75 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 75 |
| Blake Wood R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 75 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.13 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.32 | 2.37 | 363 | 74 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.68 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 39 | -0.48 | 3.68 | 323 | 74 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 74 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 74 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 74 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 74 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 1.39 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |