Trey Wingenter

P Iowa Cubs

Age 33 RHP 6'7" / 237 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	27	ROKSD	3	1	3	0.00	0.10	54.5%	9.1%	—	K 54.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP -0.35
2023	29	MIX3 levels	41	2	39	6.52	3.51	29.3%	12.6%	0.5	K 27.1% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.58
2024	30	MIX2 levels	45	0	57	3.97	3.17	32.3%	10.0%	0.9	K 30.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 2.98
2025	31	No MLB games played
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	33	MLBCHC	5	0	5	3.95	3.89	28.1%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCHC	2	0	2	4.14	4.24	26.8%	9.5%	0.0
2029PROJMLE	35	MLBCHC	—	—	0	4.40	4.58	25.5%	10.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff71Control35Command62FB velo57

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 33) · Jim Henderson (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.95

FIP3.89

K%28.1%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%19.1%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD6060

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	6	0	10	44	5	3	0	0%	1.6	11.4%	6.8%	4.5%	0.0%	2.79	3.00	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	6	0	10	44	5	3	0	0%	1.6	11.4%	6.8%	4.5%	0.0%	2.79	3.00	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	58	229	65	20	0	0%	1.5	19.9%	11.0%	8.9%	0.0%	1.70	2.81	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	58	229	65	20	0	0%	1.5	28.4%	8.7%	19.7%	0.0%	1.70	1.90	—
2017	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	49	0	48	194	64	19	6	0%	1.0	26.7%	10.8%	15.9%	3.9%	2.45	4.38	—
2017	23	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	49	0	48	194	64	19	6	0%	1.0	33.0%	9.8%	23.2%	3.1%	2.45	3.25	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	63	268	80	35	7	0%	1.0	27.5%	13.5%	14.0%	2.7%	3.55	3.95	+0.4
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	63	268	80	35	7	0%	1.0	29.9%	13.1%	16.8%	2.6%	3.55	3.67	+0.7
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	1	55	235	80	29	6	2%	1.0	33.0%	12.8%	20.2%	2.2%	5.89	3.17	+0.9
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	1	55	235	80	29	6	2%	1.0	34.0%	12.3%	21.7%	2.6%	5.89	3.19	+0.9
2021	27	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	3	1	3	11	6	1	0	33%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.35	—
2021	27	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	3	1	3	11	6	1	0	33%	1.0	54.5%	9.1%	45.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	2	39	174	51	22	4	5%	0.9	27.1%	10.1%	17.0%	2.7%	6.52	3.58	+0.4
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	2	39	174	51	22	4	5%	0.9	29.3%	12.6%	16.7%	2.3%	6.52	3.51	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	57	251	81	25	7	0%	1.3	30.9%	9.0%	21.8%	2.4%	3.97	2.98	+1.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	57	251	81	25	7	0%	1.3	30.9%	9.0%	21.8%	2.4%	3.97	2.98	+1.1
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	57	251	81	25	7	0%	1.3	32.3%	10.0%	22.3%	2.8%	3.97	3.17	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	1	95	417	127	50	12	1%	1.0	30.5%	12.0%	18.5%	2.9%	5.66	3.65	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CHC	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	28.1%	9.0%	19.1%	3.0%	3.95	3.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	42	0	45	188	50	18	6	0%	1.1	26.8%	9.5%	17.2%	3.3%	4.14	4.24	+0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	CHC	34	0	36	152	39	15	5	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.1%	15.5%	3.6%	4.40	4.58	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.5%	17.2%	3.3%	4.14	4.24	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.5%	10.1%	15.5%	3.6%	4.40	4.58	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	1	98	429	130	51	12	1%	1.0	30.3%	11.9%	18.4%	2.9%	5.62	3.63	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	2	200	874	265	104	24	1%	1.0	30.3%	11.9%	18.4%	2.9%	5.62	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		300	4	332	1406	384	157	31	1%	1.1	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	2.2%	3.82	3.41	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	2	200	846	231	94	19	1%	1.1	27.3%	11.1%	16.2%	2.2%	3.82	3.41	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 48 IPFIP 2.66 → 2.98 (+0.32)K% 35.9% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.89%	—	×0.860	30.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×0.900	9.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷1.079	×1.100	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 21 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.80 (+0.46)K% 29.7% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.67%	—	×0.860	25.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.09%	—	×0.900	10.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.901	×1.100	2.68%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 44 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.94 (+0.43)K% 28.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.34%	—	×0.880	24.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.83%	—	×1.050	13.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.045	×1.100	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASan Antonio Missions · 48 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.38 (+1.12)K% 33.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.99%	—	×0.810	26.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.79%	—	×1.100	10.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷0.940	×1.200	3.95%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 44 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.81 (+0.68)K% 25.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.84%	—	×0.770	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.150	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 11 IPFIP 0.83 → 1.70 (+0.86)K% 34.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.740	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.180	5.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.888	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 0.83 → 1.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKAZL Padres · 10 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.53 (+0.52)K% 11.4% → 7.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.36%	—	×0.680	7.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.250	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Wingenter (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	28.1%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.39	26.2%	16.4%	81	+0.50	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	84
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	83
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	80
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	77
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	75
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	72
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	72
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.23	19.4%	9.4%	126	-0.34	3.55	429	72
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	71
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	70
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	70
Marcos Mateo R 2015 · 3.12 FIP	31	SU	3.12	28.0%	8.0%	2.5%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	70
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	70
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	70
Brendan Donnelly R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	32.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.302	3.88	19.0%	11.8%	150	+0.83	2.23	385	69
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	68
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	67
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2001 · 2.79 FIP	33	SU	2.79	23.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.228	2.95	25.8%	18.5%	94	+0.16	2.76	223	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	28.4%	10.5%	1.20	4.77
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Michael Feliz ('22)	1.2	50	29.9%	9.9%	1.55	5.29
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Mike Stanton ('75-'85, 0 WAR*)	1.9	64	27.8%*	10.8%*	0.80*	4.82*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*