Evan Reifert

P Durham Bulls

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AATB	35	0	41	1.96	2.06	40.4%	9.9%	—	K 32.7% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.00
2025	26	MIX2 levels	33	2	30	3.26	2.80	38.6%	14.3%	—	K 34.3% · BB 12.7% · FIP 2.83
2026	27	AAATB	46	3	58	2.48	3.41	32.5%	13.7%	—	K 28.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	3	0	3	4.08	4.08	28.8%	11.9%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTB	10	0	11	4.18	4.24	28.1%	11.8%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsKiko Calero (age 28) · Jason Bulger (age 29) · Jon Edwards (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 94

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%28.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	60	256	103	35	4	0%	1.6	30.4%	16.2%	14.2%	2.0%	2.10	3.66	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	60	256	103	35	4	0%	1.6	40.2%	13.7%	26.6%	1.6%	2.10	2.28	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	37	161	62	20	2	0%	1.2	29.6%	11.3%	18.3%	2.2%	4.58	3.24	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	37	161	62	20	2	0%	1.2	38.5%	12.4%	26.1%	1.2%	4.58	2.08	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	8	42	12	15	0	11%	0.9	28.6%	35.7%	-7.1%	0.0%	8.22	5.21	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	8	42	12	15	0	11%	0.9	28.6%	35.7%	-7.1%	0.0%	8.22	5.84	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	35	0	41	161	65	16	3	0%	1.2	32.7%	10.9%	21.8%	2.3%	1.96	3.00	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	35	0	41	161	65	16	3	0%	1.2	32.7%	10.9%	21.8%	2.3%	1.96	3.00	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	35	0	41	161	65	16	3	0%	1.2	40.4%	9.9%	30.4%	1.9%	1.96	2.06	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	30	140	54	20	3	6%	0.9	34.3%	12.7%	21.6%	1.9%	3.26	2.83	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	30	140	54	20	3	6%	0.9	34.3%	12.7%	21.6%	1.9%	3.26	2.83	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	2	30	140	54	20	3	6%	0.9	38.6%	14.3%	24.3%	2.1%	3.26	2.80	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	249	81	34	6	7%	1.3	28.0%	12.3%	15.7%	2.7%	2.48	3.75	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	249	81	34	6	7%	1.3	28.0%	12.3%	15.7%	2.7%	2.48	3.75	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	46	3	58	249	81	34	6	7%	1.3	32.5%	13.7%	18.9%	2.4%	2.48	3.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	3	0	3	13	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.8%	11.9%	17.0%	2.8%	4.08	4.08	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	28	0	30	125	35	15	4	0%	1.1	28.1%	11.8%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.24	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	13	5	1	0%	1.1	28.1%	11.8%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	4.24	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	13	5	1	0%	1.1	28.1%	11.8%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	3.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	240	92	18	0%	1.1	28.1%	11.8%	16.2%	3.0%	4.18	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		191	6	235	1009	308	141	22	3%	1.2	30.5%	13.9%	16.6%	2.1%	2.91	3.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	5	200	860	262	120	18	3%	1.2	30.5%	13.9%	16.6%	2.1%	2.91	3.46	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 58 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.75 (+0.34)K% 32.5% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.53%	—	×0.860	27.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.65%	—	×0.900	12.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 29 IPFIP 2.80 → 2.83 (+0.03)K% 39.8% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.84%	—	×0.860	34.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.06%	—	×0.900	12.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.380	×1.100	1.87%

Result: FIP 2.80 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 41 IPFIP 1.97 → 3.00 (+1.03)K% 40.4% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.37%	—	×0.810	32.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.94%	—	×1.100	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.958	×1.200	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 4 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.83 (+1.62)K% 22.7% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.680	15.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	31.82%	—	×1.250	39.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.911	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 4 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.65 (+1.44)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.770	26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	40.00%	—	×1.150	46.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.066	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 27 IPFIP 2.08 → 3.24 (+1.15)K% 38.4% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.39%	—	×0.770	29.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.150	11.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.020	×1.250	2.19%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Rays · 7 IPFIP -0.62 → 1.15 (+1.77)K% 56.0% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	56.00%	—	×0.680	38.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.902	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.62 → 1.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 3 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.74 (+0.70)K% 20.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.810	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	29.17%	—	×1.100	32.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.970	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Evan Reifert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	28.8%	11.9%	2.8%	—	4.24	28.1%	16.2%	30	+0.16	—	—	—
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	90
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	87
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	86
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	84
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	83
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	83
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	83
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	82
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	80
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	79
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	79
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	78
Zach Putnam R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	30.2%	9.0%	3.2%	.287	2.94	26.3%	17.5%	27	-0.53	2.91	131	78
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	78
Jason Motte R 2010 · 3.24 FIP	28	SU	3.24	26.0%	7.2%	2.6%	.269	2.69	27.3%	21.8%	140	-0.55	2.22	387	77
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	77
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	28.5%	11.9%	1.11	4.13
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Chaz Roe ('21)	1.1	43	26.4%	11.1%	0.79	3.89
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*