Tejay Antone
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION165 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.50
FIP3.48
xFIP8.68
SIERA9.74
K%26.8%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%18.7%
IP165
STUF7070
CTRL4040
CMD6565
K†6565
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p9033.5%
K%
p9033.1%
xwOBA vs
p800.283
FB (60%)
SI (24%)
CU (15%)
SL (26%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | 26 | 26 | 158 | 654 | 101 | 33 | 2 | 11.4% | 6.0% | 0.3% | 2.91 | 3.08 | +4.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 26 | 26 | 156 | 662 | 110 | 31 | 16 | 12.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 4.19 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 17 | 17 | 96 | 409 | 82 | 29 | 6 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 4.03 | 3.73 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 27 | 26 | 146 | 635 | 133 | 51 | 11 | 17.7% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 4.00 | 3.85 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 13 | 4 | 35 | 141 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 31.9% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 2.80 | 3.32 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 30 | 0 | 40 | 154 | 52 | 16 | 4 | 32.8% | 10.2% | 2.2% | 2.23 | 2.84 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 19 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 3.79 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18.2% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 6.17 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 15 | 0 | 15 | 80 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 10.20 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 23.3% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 2.77 | 2.68 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 27 | 151 | 638 | 171 | 52 | 19 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 3.48 | +3.4 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 177 | 747 | 200 | 61 | 20 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 3.36 | +4.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 28 | 28 | 151 | 639 | 164 | 54 | 21 | 25.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.15 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 143 | 52 | 20 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 4.47 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 122 | 49 | 20 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 4.59 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 110 | 462 | 104 | 46 | 19 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 4.92 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 203 | 102 | 694 | 2935 | 487 | 218 | 53 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.55 | 3.64 | +14.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 29 | 200 | 845 | 140 | 63 | 15 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 3.55 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tejay Antone (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.92 | 27.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.45 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 413 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 76 |
| Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 74 |
| James Shields R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.36 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 4.1% | .292 | 5.12 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 517 | +0.76 | 4.36 | 720 | 70 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.03 | 19.1% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.89 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 279 | +0.86 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 68 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 68 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.83 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .258 | 3.24 | 28.0% | 22.7% | 437 | -0.59 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 68 |
| Max Scherzer R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.09 | 31.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .251 | 2.36 | 34.7% | 29.1% | 594 | -0.73 | 2.13 | 1,761 | 68 |
| Tanner Roark R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.36 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 4.1% | .313 | 4.76 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 94 | +0.40 | 3.13 | 942 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 64 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 32 | SP | 2.87 | 28.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .317 | 3.42 | 26.0% | 20.2% | 363 | +0.55 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 64 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.63 | 24.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | .299 | 4.97 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 260 | +1.34 | 3.63 | 885 | 63 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.73 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.74 | 14.1% | 6.3% | 168 | +1.01 | 3.73 | 469 | 63 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.44 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 786 | 63 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.72 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .286 | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.6% | 282 | +0.61 | 3.72 | 498 | 62 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.83 | 19.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .297 | 3.64 | 23.4% | 15.3% | 452 | -0.19 | 3.54 | 1,073 | 62 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.90 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% | .290 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 416 | -0.14 | 3.72 | 918 | 62 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.07 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | .313 | 4.18 | 21.5% | 14.8% | 424 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 869 | 62 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 15.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 122 | +0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 61 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.63 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 1.9% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 593 | 60 |
| Jake Peavy R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 59 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2020
Service 6.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026ROS | Ext | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $0.4M | $0.5M | +$0.1M | ||