Tejay Antone

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBCIN	4	2	4.50	7.10	18.2%	36.4%	-0.1
2025	31	MIX3 levels	15	15	10.20	4.63	18.8%	11.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.31
2026	32	MIX2 levels	70	67	2.96	3.06	25.4%	7.4%	1.2	K 24.4% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	33	MLBCIN	53	56	3.73	3.79	25.9%	7.1%	0.5
2028PROJ91% MLB	34	MLBCIN	41	43	3.95	4.10	25.0%	7.6%	0.2
2029PROJ87% MLB	35	MLBCIN	29	30	4.24	4.43	24.0%	8.2%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs65

K%61

FB Velo57

Form4.57 ERA (proj 3.73) · K 27.8% (proj 25.9%) · BB 9.3% (proj 7.1%) · last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsTim Dillard (age 33) · Tony Barnette (age 33) · Joe Nelson (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 85

ERA3.73

FIP3.79

K%25.9%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%18.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	26	26	158	654	101	33	2	100%	6.1	11.4%	6.0%	5.5%	0.4%	2.91	3.09	—
2015	21	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	26	26	158	654	101	33	2	100%	6.1	15.4%	5.0%	10.4%	0.3%	2.91	2.61	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	156	662	110	31	16	100%	6.0	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.9%	3.45	4.28	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	156	662	110	31	16	100%	6.0	16.6%	4.7%	11.9%	2.4%	3.45	3.62	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	17	17	96	409	82	29	6	100%	5.6	15.4%	8.2%	7.3%	1.7%	4.03	3.78	—
2018	24	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	17	17	96	409	82	29	6	100%	5.6	20.0%	7.1%	13.0%	1.5%	4.03	3.11	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	146	635	133	51	11	96%	5.4	17.7%	8.6%	9.1%	2.0%	4.00	3.81	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	146	635	133	51	11	96%	5.4	20.9%	8.0%	12.9%	1.7%	4.00	3.31	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	13	4	35	141	45	16	4	31%	2.7	31.9%	11.3%	20.6%	2.6%	2.80	3.28	+0.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	13	4	35	141	45	16	4	31%	2.7	31.9%	11.3%	20.6%	2.8%	2.80	3.38	+0.5
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	40	154	52	16	4	0%	1.3	32.8%	10.2%	22.7%	2.2%	2.23	2.81	+0.8
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	40	154	52	16	4	0%	1.3	33.8%	10.4%	23.4%	2.6%	2.23	3.00	+0.7
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	3	19	80	20	7	2	16%	1.0	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.0%	3.79	3.76	+0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	3	19	80	20	7	2	16%	1.0	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	2.5%	3.79	3.47	+0.2
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	4	0	2	11	2	4	0	0%	0.5	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	4.50	6.17	-0.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	4	0	2	11	2	4	0	0%	0.5	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	4.50	6.17	-0.0
2024	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	4	0	2	11	2	4	0	0%	0.5	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	4.50	7.10	-0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	80	15	9	2	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.5%	2.5%	10.20	4.31	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	15	80	15	9	2	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.5%	2.5%	10.20	4.31	—
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	15	80	15	9	2	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.5%	2.5%	10.20	4.63	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	67	283	72	21	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.4%	17.9%	2.4%	2.96	3.16	+1.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	67	283	72	21	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.4%	17.9%	2.4%	2.96	3.16	+1.1
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	67	283	72	21	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	7.4%	18.0%	2.1%	2.96	3.06	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			103	5	132	535	153	50	13	5%	1.3	28.6%	9.3%	19.3%	2.4%	2.73	3.20	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	CIN	53	0	56	236	61	17	7	0%	1.1	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	2.9%	3.73	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CIN	45	0	47	198	50	15	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.6%	17.4%	3.2%	3.95	4.10	+0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	CIN	32	0	34	144	35	12	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.2%	15.9%	3.6%	4.24	4.43	+0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	CIN	41	0	43	182	45	14	6	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.6%	17.4%	3.2%	3.95	4.10	+0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	CIN	29	0	30	127	30	10	4	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.2%	15.9%	3.6%	4.24	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	5	204	841	228	74	23	3%	1.2	27.1%	8.8%	18.4%	2.8%	3.21	3.44	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	5	200	824	223	73	23	3%	1.2	27.1%	8.8%	18.4%	2.8%	3.21	3.44	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		247	102	735	3109	530	230	59	41%	3.0	17.1%	7.4%	9.7%	1.9%	3.52	3.64	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	28	200	846	144	63	16	41%	3.0	17.1%	7.4%	9.7%	1.9%	3.52	3.64	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 12 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.27 (+0.21)K% 30.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.860	26.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×0.900	11.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 6 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.27 (+0.03)K% 12.9% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.90%	—	×0.860	11.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×0.900	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.901	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 6 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.46 (+0.91)K% 28.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.770	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.150	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.124	×1.250	3.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 3 IPFIP 6.92 → 7.85 (+0.93)K% 14.3% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.810	11.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.100	20.95%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.021	×1.200	5.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 6.92 → 7.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 12 IPFIP 3.59 → 3.76 (+0.17)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.860	18.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×0.900	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.054	×1.100	2.01%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 7 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.91 (+0.49)K% 38.5% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.880	33.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.050	12.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.088	×1.100	3.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 72 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.09 (+0.46)K% 21.7% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.67%	—	×0.880	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.050	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.957	×1.100	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 75 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.52 (+0.57)K% 20.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.19%	—	×0.810	16.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.100	7.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.979	×1.200	1.57%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tejay Antone (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.24	24.6%	16.8%	81	+0.45	—	—	—
Tim Dillard R 2016 · 3.13 FIP	33	SU	3.13	22.6%	8.2%	1.7%	.358	4.14	13.7%	6.9%	250	+1.01	2.92	432	66
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	63
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	62
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	61
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	60
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	59
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	59
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	59
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	58
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	58
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	58
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	58
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	58
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	57
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	57
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	57
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	57
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	56
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	56
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2001 · 2.79 FIP	33	SU	2.79	23.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.228	2.95	25.8%	18.5%	94	+0.16	2.76	223	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	45	26.8%	8.6%	1.09	3.35
Kazuhiro Sasaki ('03)	1.1	56	26.2%	8.3%	0.97	3.14
Keone Kela ('21)	1.1	45	29.9%	9.2%	1.03	3.33
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Andrew Bailey ('17)	1.4	55	24.7%	8.2%	0.95	3.12
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*