Jaden Hill
P
Colorado Rockies
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 260 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.64
FIP3.82
xFIP4.28
SIERA4.32
K%25.6%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%17.0%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6060
SL+1.4 (32%)
FB+1.3 (49%)
SI (23%)
CH-1.7 (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 10 | 10 | 18 | 75 | 25 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.06 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 16 | 16 | 44 | 217 | 57 | 25 | 11 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 6.1% | 9.48 | 6.42 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 50 | 0 | 56 | 253 | 75 | 21 | 6 | 26.7% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 3.02 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 45 | 2 | 50 | 209 | 62 | 16 | 3 | 28.4% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 3.42 | 2.56 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 9 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | COL | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 3.55 | 3.62 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | COL | — | — | 38 | 158 | 41 | 15 | 3 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.06 | 2.88 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 41 | 14 | 4 | 26.0% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | COL | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | COL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | COL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 28 | 175 | 786 | 203 | 73 | 22 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 3.67 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 32 | 200 | 898 | 232 | 83 | 25 | 25.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 3.67 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jaden Hill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.62 | 27.0% | 8.6% | 2.4% | — | 3.80 | 25.7% | 16.6% | 110 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 82 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 82 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.72 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.80 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.08 | 1.58 | 544 | 81 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 81 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 81 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 80 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 80 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 80 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 79 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 79 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 79 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 78 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.00 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .333 | 3.70 | 23.7% | 15.0% | 136 | +0.70 | 2.36 | 309 | 78 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 77 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 77 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 77 |
| Austin Adams R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 77 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.27 | 3.36 | 206 | 77 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 77 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 0.564 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2032
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $12M | +$5M | ||