Yaqui Rivera — OGILVIE

Yaqui Rivera P Norfolk Tides

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%23.0%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	12	39	167	45	18	2	100%	3.2	18.3%	13.5%	4.9%	1.2%	3.69	3.92	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	12	12	39	167	45	18	2	100%	3.2	26.9%	10.8%	16.2%	1.2%	3.69	2.84	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	38	174	49	20	2	0%	2.0	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.68	3.67	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	38	174	49	20	2	0%	2.0	28.2%	11.5%	16.7%	1.1%	5.68	2.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	1.2%	2.52	4.03	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	1.2%	2.52	4.03	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	32.1%	15.6%	16.5%	0.9%	2.52	2.88	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	19.9%	13.6%	6.3%	1.1%	1.99	3.73	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	19.9%	13.6%	6.3%	1.1%	1.99	3.73	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	25.9%	11.8%	14.0%	0.9%	1.99	2.90	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	24.2%	16.8%	7.4%	1.8%	3.97	4.19	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	24.2%	16.8%	7.4%	1.8%	3.97	4.19	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	34	8	77	319	96	37	7	24%	2.3	24.8%	10.9%	13.8%	2.5%	3.40	3.75	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	34	8	77	319	96	37	7	24%	2.3	24.8%	10.9%	13.8%	2.5%	3.40	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	BAL	10	1	25	95	35	8	2	10%	2.5	36.8%	8.4%	28.4%	2.1%	2.92	2.21	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	BAL	24	7	52	224	61	29	5	29%	2.2	27.2%	12.9%	14.3%	2.2%	3.63	3.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	73	0	77	325	77	42	9	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.1%	10.6%	2.6%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	74	0	78	329	79	39	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.52	4.42	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	74	0	78	329	80	38	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	73	0	77	324	78	38	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.7%	12.4%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	71	0	74	315	75	37	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	71	300	71	36	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.64	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	282	66	35	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.82	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	35	0	37	156	37	20	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.1%	10.6%	2.6%	4.68	4.59	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	51	0	54	228	55	27	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	2.7%	4.52	4.42	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	60	0	63	266	64	31	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.7%	12.5%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	63	0	66	279	67	33	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.7%	12.4%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	64	0	67	283	68	34	8	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	62	0	65	274	65	33	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.58	4.64	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	59	0	62	262	61	32	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.4%	11.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.82	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		394	0	414	1748	417	210	50	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.16	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	101	24	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		158	22	292	1257	281	175	20	14%	1.8	22.3%	13.9%	8.4%	1.6%	3.39	3.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	15	200	861	192	120	14	14%	1.8	22.3%	13.9%	8.4%	1.6%	3.39	3.86	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yaqui Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	23.0%	14.9%	2.6%	—	4.47	23.9%	11.7%	233	-0.40	—	—	—
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	90
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	88
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	87
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	87
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	84
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	84
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	68	23.8%	12.2%	1.08	4.56
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04