Yaqui Rivera
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 150 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%23.2%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 12 | 12 | 39 | 167 | 45 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 18.3% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 3.69 | 3.77 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 12 | 12 | 39 | 167 | 45 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 26.9% | 10.8% | 16.2% | 1.2% | 3.69 | 2.84 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 38 | 174 | 49 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 2.0 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 5.68 | 3.60 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 38 | 174 | 49 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 2.0 | 28.2% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 1.1% | 5.68 | 2.78 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 50 | 212 | 68 | 33 | 2 | 7% | 1.7 | 24.1% | 18.2% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 2.52 | 4.01 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 50 | 212 | 68 | 33 | 2 | 7% | 1.7 | 32.1% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 0.9% | 2.52 | 2.88 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 37 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 59 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 13.6% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 1.99 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 37 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 59 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 0.9% | 1.99 | 2.90 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 27 | 0 | 34 | 157 | 47 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.2% | 16.8% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 3.97 | 4.02 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 27 | 0 | 34 | 157 | 47 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.9% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 21 | 8 | 56 | 227 | 73 | 27 | 3 | 38% | 2.7 | 27.2% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.41 | 3.25 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 81 | 332 | 97 | 40 | 6 | — | — | 29.3% | 12.0% | 17.3% | 1.7% | 3.05 | 3.64 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.12 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 95 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 145 | 22 | 271 | 1165 | 264 | 169 | 15 | 15% | 1.9 | 22.6% | 14.5% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 3.18 | 3.71 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 16 | 200 | 859 | 194 | 124 | 11 | 15% | 1.9 | 22.6% | 14.5% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 3.18 | 3.71 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yaqui Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.31 | 23.8% | 12.7% | 25 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 86 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 86 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 85 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 85 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 85 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 85 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 84 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 84 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 84 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 84 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 84 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.31 | 236 | 83 |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.86 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.73 | 3.86 | 130 | 83 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 83 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 83 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 83 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 83 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.45 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .319 | 2.79 | 31.3% | 20.1% | 109 | -0.66 | 1.95 | 232 | 83 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 1.01 | 4.44 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |