Yaqui Rivera

P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+Aberdeen Iron…	37	0	54	1.99	2.90	25.9%	11.8%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.73
2025	22	AABAL	27	0	34	3.97	3.60	29.9%	15.3%	—	K 24.2% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.19
2026	23	MIX2 levels	36	8	80	3.28	3.30	29.0%	11.8%	—	K 24.4% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	9	0	9	4.54	4.54	24.9%	13.4%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBBAL	33	0	35	4.44	4.39	25.2%	12.3%	0.1
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBBAL	44	0	46	4.38	4.35	25.3%	11.9%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsAndrew Politi (age 23) · Barrett Loseke (age 24) · Todd Van Steensel (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%24.9%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	12	39	167	45	18	2	100%	3.2	18.3%	13.5%	4.9%	1.2%	3.69	3.92	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	12	12	39	167	45	18	2	100%	3.2	26.9%	10.8%	16.2%	1.2%	3.69	2.84	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	38	174	49	20	2	0%	2.0	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.68	3.67	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	38	174	49	20	2	0%	2.0	28.2%	11.5%	16.7%	1.1%	5.68	2.78	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	24.1%	18.2%	5.9%	1.2%	2.52	4.03	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	50	212	68	33	2	7%	1.7	32.1%	15.6%	16.5%	0.9%	2.52	2.88	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	19.9%	13.6%	6.3%	1.1%	1.99	3.73	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	19.9%	13.6%	6.3%	1.1%	1.99	3.73	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	37	0	54	228	59	27	2	0%	1.5	25.9%	11.8%	14.0%	0.9%	1.99	2.90	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	24.2%	16.8%	7.4%	1.8%	3.97	4.19	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	24.2%	16.8%	7.4%	1.8%	3.97	4.19	—
2025	22	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	27	0	34	157	47	24	3	0%	1.3	29.9%	15.3%	14.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.60	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	8	80	331	96	39	7	22%	2.2	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.4%	3.28	3.75	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	8	80	331	96	39	7	22%	2.2	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.4%	3.28	3.75	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	8	80	331	96	39	7	22%	2.2	29.0%	11.8%	17.2%	2.1%	3.28	3.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	69	0	73	307	77	38	8	0%	1.1	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	63	0	66	281	71	33	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	60	0	63	266	67	31	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	56	0	59	250	62	30	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.8%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	52	0	55	231	57	28	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	51	0	53	225	59	26	7	0%	1.0	26.3%	11.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.50	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	33	0	35	148	37	18	4	0%	1.1	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	44	0	46	194	49	23	5	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	48	0	50	211	53	25	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	48	0	50	211	53	25	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.8%	13.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	46	0	48	203	50	24	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	46	0	48	203	53	23	7	0%	1.0	26.3%	11.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		265	0	278	1173	296	139	34	0%	1.0	25.2%	11.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.07	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	100	24	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		160	22	295	1269	283	177	20	14%	1.8	22.3%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	3.36	3.86	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	15	200	860	192	120	14	14%	1.8	22.3%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	3.36	3.86	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 55 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.00 (+0.26)K% 25.8% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.85%	—	×0.860	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.14%	—	×0.900	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 25 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.14 (+0.93)K% 36.8% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.84%	—	×0.810	29.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.42%	—	×1.100	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 34 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.19 (+0.63)K% 29.9% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.94%	—	×0.810	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.29%	—	×1.100	16.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷1.248	×1.200	1.84%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 54 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.73 (+0.83)K% 25.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.770	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×1.150	13.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.026	×1.250	1.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 31 IPFIP 2.91 → 4.13 (+1.22)K% 31.6% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.62%	—	×0.740	23.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.180	15.62%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.020	×1.300	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 19 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.84 (+1.01)K% 32.9% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.770	25.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.74%	—	×1.150	22.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.912	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 35 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.67 (+0.97)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.740	21.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.49%	—	×1.180	12.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.128	×1.300	1.42%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Marlins · 39 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.92 (+1.07)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.95%	—	×0.680	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.78%	—	×1.250	13.47%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.399	×1.400	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 180).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yaqui Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.37	25.2%	13.2%	202	-0.17	—	—	—
Andrew Politi R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	22.6%	13.0%	1.4%	.274	4.33	23.4%	13.0%	144	+0.71	3.38	292	86
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	84
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	83
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	83
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	82
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	6.0%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	82
Trevor Holloway R 2021 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	21.9%	11.7%	1.3%	.266	4.55	17.9%	6.1%	43	+1.11	3.44	112	81
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	81
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	81
Josh White R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	23	SU	3.39	24.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.319	3.03	29.2%	19.1%	124	-0.36	1.84	247	81
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	81
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	80
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	66	25.2%	12.2%	1.10	4.46
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Jose Veras ('14)	2.1	60	24.0%	12.1%	0.96	3.91