Walter Ford
P
Everett AquaSox
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 198 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.4 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.44
FIP5.44
K%11.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 9 | 8 | 23 | 103 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 89% | 2.5 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 4.19 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 9 | 8 | 23 | 103 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 89% | 2.5 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 1.0% | 3.57 | 2.97 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 80 | 360 | 74 | 20 | 9 | 80% | 4.0 | 14.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 5.17 | 5.20 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 16 | 80 | 360 | 74 | 20 | 9 | 80% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 5.6% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 5.17 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 23 | 23 | 125 | 531 | 95 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.67 | 5.68 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 23 | 23 | 125 | 531 | 95 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.9% | 5.6% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.67 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 15 | 15 | 72 | 326 | 45 | 14 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 10.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.62 | 7.25 | -2.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 11.6% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.6% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.39 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 137 | 600 | 77 | 36 | 31 | — | — | 12.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.06 | 6.39 | -1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.6% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 92 | 389 | 56 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 5.18 | 5.08 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 96 | 404 | 66 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 72 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.4% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 99 | 419 | 75 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.0% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 99 | 419 | 76 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 98 | 413 | 75 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 95 | 400 | 72 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 90 | 382 | 68 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 63 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 5.04 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 79 | 335 | 64 | 24 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.96 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 46 | 194 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 48 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 60 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 67 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 70 | 26 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.56 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 70 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.60 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 68 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 65 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 60 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 60 | 23 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 4.91 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 137 | 137 | 797 | 3364 | 594 | 239 | 114 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.37 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 60 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 62 | 300 | 1320 | 173 | 88 | 72 | 93% | 4.5 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.19 | 5.82 | -1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 41 | 200 | 880 | 115 | 59 | 48 | 93% | 4.5 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.19 | 5.82 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walter Ford (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 11.6% | 7.9% | 3.5% | — | 4.88 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 286 | -0.56 | — | — | — |
| Nick Krauth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.74 | 13.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .287 | 4.61 | 13.0% | 3.2% | 295 | -0.13 | 4.44 | 424 | 90 |
| Gage Hinsz R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.91 | 9.5% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 226 | 88 |
| Fernando Perez R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 11.9% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 3.86 | 16.2% | 5.5% | 202 | -0.53 | 2.76 | 303 | 88 |
| Michael Kelly R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.51 | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .317 | 4.55 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 323 | -0.96 | 2.83 | 666 | 87 |
| Will Rudy R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.65 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .299 | 5.34 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 113 | +0.69 | 4.65 | 194 | 87 |
| Tyree Thompson R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.59 | 11.4% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .273 | 5.06 | 12.1% | -2.3% | 113 | -0.53 | 3.58 | 343 | 86 |
| Michael Murray R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.65 | 14.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .343 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 6.8% | 42 | -0.36 | 4.21 | 116 | 86 |
| Derek Casey R 2028 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.54 | 13.6% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .311 | 3.01 | 22.3% | 13.2% | 58 | -2.53 | 3.01 | 180 | 86 |
| Travis Lakins R 2027 · 5.41 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.41 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 4.2% | .349 | 3.78 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 191 | -1.63 | 3.09 | 374 | 85 |
| Jen-Ho Tseng R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.46 | 11.1% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .324 | 4.56 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 282 | +0.10 | 3.73 | 514 | 85 |
| Jordan Kipper R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .324 | 4.34 | 10.7% | 3.8% | 304 | -0.67 | 3.88 | 432 | 85 |
| Alfred Gutierrez R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.38 | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.42 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 235 | +0.04 | 3.47 | 417 | 85 |
| Dane Myers R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | .284 | 5.39 | 12.2% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.34 | 125 | 85 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 12.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.34 | 18.2% | 4.9% | 115 | -0.12 | 4.16 | 378 | 84 |
| Blake Hickman R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.45 | 11.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .271 | 6.54 | 12.9% | -4.9% | 67 | +2.09 | 4.45 | 156 | 84 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2028 · 4.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.95 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.00 | 14.2% | 5.0% | 183 | +0.05 | 4.72 | 304 | 84 |
| Jacob Kmatz R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.52 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .347 | 4.74 | 28.0% | 23.5% | 44 | +0.22 | 4.52 | 154 | 84 |
| Carter Hope R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.44 | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.97 | 11.0% | 5.5% | 89 | +0.53 | 3.50 | 156 | 84 |
| Derek Diamond R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.57 | 14.4% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .307 | 4.89 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 124 | +0.32 | 4.57 | 243 | 84 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.03 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .323 | 5.65 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 122 | +0.62 | 4.72 | 200 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 93 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 1.34 | 4.88 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Jordan Lyles ('23) | 9 | 111 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 1.57 | 5.32 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Matt Shoemaker ('21) | 7 | 75 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.48 | 4.59 |