Walter Ford
P
Everett AquaSox
+0.5
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 198 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.6 · 2030
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%10.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.6peak
2030
K†4555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 9 | 8 | 23 | 103 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 1.7% | 3.57 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Modesto Nuts | 20 | 16 | 80 | 360 | 74 | 20 | 9 | 14.5% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 5.17 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 23 | 23 | 125 | 531 | 95 | 30 | 11 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 2 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 6 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 95 | 41 | 16 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 130 | 554 | 103 | 42 | 22 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.01 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 27 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 127 | 47 | 20 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 32 | 32 | 174 | 733 | 156 | 53 | 23 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.30 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 35 | 35 | 194 | 819 | 179 | 58 | 25 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 36 | 36 | 196 | 829 | 184 | 58 | 25 | 22.2% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 36 | 36 | 196 | 829 | 186 | 57 | 25 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +2.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 35 | 35 | 195 | 822 | 184 | 57 | 25 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +2.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 35 | 35 | 192 | 810 | 181 | 57 | 25 | 22.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +2.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 34 | 188 | 792 | 176 | 56 | 25 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +2.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 33 | 33 | 182 | 768 | 169 | 55 | 24 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +2.1 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 32 | 32 | 176 | 741 | 162 | 54 | 24 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +1.9 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 31 | 31 | 169 | 712 | 153 | 53 | 24 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 29 | 29 | 161 | 680 | 144 | 52 | 23 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +1.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 135 | 51 | 23 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 49 | 238 | 1041 | 146 | 73 | 43 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 4.92 | 5.05 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 41 | 200 | 875 | 123 | 61 | 36 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 4.92 | 5.05 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walter Ford (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.30 | 21.2% | 13.9% | 516 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Adrian Houser R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .298 | 3.93 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 163 | -0.48 | 3.50 | 1,127 | 93 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2027 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 92 |
| Derek Diamond R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 14.4% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .307 | 4.93 | 15.1% | 8.8% | 110 | +0.17 | 4.76 | 229 | 91 |
| Carson LaRue R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 5.05 | 15.4% | 6.3% | 224 | +1.22 | 3.83 | 360 | 91 |
| Jonathan Cannon R 2028 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .311 | 4.58 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 297 | -0.16 | 4.31 | 418 | 90 |
| Blake Aita R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.61 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 115 | 90 |
| Nick Krauth R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.73 | 13.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .287 | 4.64 | 13.0% | 3.2% | 295 | -0.09 | 4.49 | 424 | 90 |
| Alex Eubanks R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .335 | 3.84 | 11.1% | 3.0% | 107 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 219 | 90 |
| Brock Dykxhoorn R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.89 | 15.5% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.45 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 350 | +0.56 | 3.89 | 459 | 90 |
| Jack Mahoney R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.90 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .307 | 4.57 | 13.9% | 3.2% | 105 | +0.67 | 3.90 | 225 | 90 |
| Brandon Miller R 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | .299 | 5.55 | 14.0% | 7.4% | 123 | +0.56 | 4.99 | 245 | 89 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 89 |
| Kyle Scott R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.19 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.3% | 42 | -0.25 | 3.94 | 138 | 89 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Alex Faedo R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | 3.72 | 22.9% | 17.1% | 115 | -1.00 | 3.72 | 438 | 89 |
| Jordan Kipper R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.30 | 10.7% | 3.8% | 304 | -0.42 | 3.96 | 432 | 89 |
| Colton Eastman R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.97 | 17.0% | 2.8% | 155 | +0.64 | 4.19 | 349 | 88 |
| Ty Cummings R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .329 | 5.00 | 14.2% | 5.9% | 116 | +0.70 | 4.30 | 233 | 88 |
| Grant Rogers R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .297 | 3.89 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 150 | -0.19 | 3.89 | 262 | 88 |
| Kyle Luckham R 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | .286 | 4.48 | 13.4% | 6.2% | 291 | +0.12 | 4.06 | 415 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.6 | $23M | +$23M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.6 | $24M | +$23M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.6 | $25M | +$24M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.5 | $25M | +$21M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +2.3 | $23M | +$17M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.1 | $22M | +$13M |
| Totals | $21M | $142M | +$121M | ||