Walter Ford — OGILVIE

Walter Ford P Everett AquaSox

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 198 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%11.6%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	9	8	23	103	23	10	1	89%	2.5	15.2%	12.1%	3.0%	1.4%	3.57	4.14	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	9	8	23	103	23	10	1	89%	2.5	15.2%	12.1%	3.0%	1.4%	3.57	4.14	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	9	8	23	103	23	10	1	89%	2.5	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	1.0%	3.57	2.97	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	80	360	74	20	9	80%	4.0	14.5%	6.7%	7.8%	3.9%	5.17	4.85	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	16	80	360	74	20	9	80%	4.0	14.5%	6.7%	7.8%	3.9%	5.17	4.85	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	16	80	360	74	20	9	80%	4.0	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	2.5%	5.17	3.46	—
2025	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	125	531	95	30	11	100%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.6%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	—
2025	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	23	23	125	531	95	30	11	100%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.6%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	—
2025	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	23	23	125	531	95	30	11	100%	5.4	17.9%	5.6%	12.2%	2.1%	4.67	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	102	481	62	28	31	96%	4.4	9.9%	6.7%	3.2%	8.1%	7.92	7.53	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	23	22	102	481	62	28	31	96%	4.4	9.9%	6.7%	3.2%	8.1%	7.92	7.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	SEA	23	22	102	481	62	28	31	96%	4.4	12.9%	5.8%	7.1%	6.4%	7.92	6.29	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	SEA	2	2	7	31	4	2	1	100%	3.7	11.6%	7.5%	4.1%	3.1%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	110	512	66	30	32	—	—	12.8%	5.9%	6.9%	6.2%	7.73	7.37	-2.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	118	500	73	36	15	100%	5.1	14.5%	7.1%	7.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.85	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	123	518	85	36	16	100%	5.3	16.3%	6.9%	9.4%	3.0%	4.74	4.63	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	126	532	93	36	16	100%	5.7	17.4%	6.7%	10.7%	3.0%	4.59	4.50	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	128	538	97	36	16	100%	5.8	18.0%	6.6%	11.4%	3.0%	4.49	4.43	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	128	538	98	35	16	100%	6.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	126	530	96	35	16	100%	6.0	18.2%	6.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.44	4.45	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	122	514	93	35	16	100%	6.1	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	3.1%	4.50	4.53	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	116	491	87	34	16	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	3.3%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	109	461	81	34	16	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.3%	10.1%	3.5%	4.75	4.84	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	102	430	73	33	16	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.7%	9.4%	3.7%	4.93	5.04	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	58	245	36	18	7	100%	5.3	14.5%	7.1%	7.4%	3.0%	4.90	4.81	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	90	380	62	26	11	100%	5.3	16.3%	6.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.70	4.59	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	104	439	76	29	13	100%	5.5	17.4%	6.7%	10.7%	2.9%	4.55	4.46	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	113	477	86	31	14	100%	5.9	18.0%	6.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.39	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	116	490	89	32	14	100%	6.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.6%	2.9%	4.40	4.37	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	116	490	89	33	14	100%	6.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.41	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	114	481	87	33	15	100%	6.0	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.49	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	110	464	83	33	15	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.62	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	104	439	77	32	15	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.79	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	97	410	70	31	15	100%	6.1	17.1%	7.7%	9.4%	3.6%	4.88	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		176	176	1023	4320	755	298	133	100%	5.8	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.57	4.19	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	148	58	26	100%	5.8	17.5%	6.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.57	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		75	69	330	1475	186	104	73	92%	4.4	12.6%	7.1%	5.5%	4.9%	5.72	5.65	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	893	113	63	44	92%	4.4	12.6%	7.1%	5.5%	4.9%	5.72	5.65	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walter Ford (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	11.6%	7.5%	3.1%	—	4.66	16.1%	9.2%	367	-0.52	—	—	—
Nick Krauth R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	21	SP	4.73	13.3%	7.5%	3.3%	.287	4.67	13.0%	3.2%	295	-0.06	4.50	424	90
Fernando Perez R 2015 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	11.9%	8.4%	2.1%	.333	3.73	16.2%	5.5%	202	-0.60	2.81	303	88
Gage Hinsz R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP	4.88	9.5%	8.5%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	226	88
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP	4.06	12.5%	7.7%	1.9%	.300	4.56	16.6%	5.3%	176	+0.50	3.02	316	88
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	87
Cody Sedlock R 2017 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	12.6%	9.6%	2.6%	.353	4.45	18.2%	4.9%	115	-0.24	4.21	378	87
Michael Kelly R 2015 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP	5.19	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	.317	4.56	17.7%	4.3%	323	-0.63	2.77	666	86
Michael Murray R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.4%	7.3%	3.5%	.343	4.37	16.1%	6.8%	42	-0.34	4.32	116	86
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	86
Noah Bremer R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	14.7%	8.5%	2.5%	.351	3.76	18.0%	8.5%	144	-0.54	3.19	271	86
Carter Hope R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	20	SP	4.44	7.5%	5.4%	2.3%	.333	4.42	11.0%	5.5%	89	-0.02	3.50	156	86
Jen-Ho Tseng R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	21	SP	4.53	11.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.324	4.35	16.8%	9.7%	282	-0.18	3.62	514	86
Travis Lakins R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	3.0%	.349	3.82	18.4%	7.5%	191	-0.97	3.18	374	85
Alfred Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	20	SP	4.38	12.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.290	4.17	18.6%	10.9%	235	-0.21	3.57	417	85
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	85
Jonathan Heasley R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP	4.68	10.5%	8.8%	2.5%	.297	4.70	20.0%	11.6%	233	+0.02	3.78	607	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85
Jordan Kipper R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP	4.78	13.0%	8.0%	3.2%	.324	4.29	10.7%	3.8%	304	-0.49	3.97	432	84
Dane Myers R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP	4.26	14.7%	9.2%	2.2%	.284	5.32	12.2%	0.7%	52	+1.06	4.26	125	84
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.58	15.9%	10.1%	151	-0.15	3.53	270	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	117	16.9%	7.0%	1.22	4.67
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01